The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Kahran Ramsus]

"This is worth $1.5 billion to you and only you. In anyone else's hands it's unlikely to ever turn a profit, but to YOU it's $1.5+ billion profit, so please accept it instead of $1.5 billion cash." is exactly what I'd say if I was the CEO of Comcast, yes.
And if Iger bought that line, shareholders would beat him like Jack's mother for selling a healthy cow for three beans. Heck, he'd be stupider than Jack because the beans really were magic, while the FF film rights have a cash value of roughly $0 because of the Daredevil and Ghost Rider precedents.

Also, the MCU has made successes (on the movie end) out of basically every no-name superhero they've tried. Feige could put out a Great Lakes Avengers movie in the next phase and make $700 million. It is hard to justify paying a ton of money to a property like Fantastic Four when they can do just as well with the properties they have and pay nothing. FF's value above replacement is really low. X-Men is a little better, but the only one that I see them really going out of their way for is Spider-Man. He really is on a different level.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

The X-Men & FF aren't worthy $1.5 billion dollars. Iger has a fiduciary duty to the shareholders to take cash instead.
Fantastic Four especially is worth a pittance at this point. Fox let the Daredevil franchise revert to Marvel after two disappointing movies, and the FF are on their third.

I didn't say they would pay $1.5 billion for X-Men and FF. They would be getting the components they want. Avatar, Star Wars etc. etc. etc. for a price they name. Maybe more than $1.5 billion, maybe less than 1.5 billion. I used variables because I don't know the exact details but there are certain things that Disney wants more than others.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Oh, Comcast would LOVE to own 60% of Hulu. Then they'd just wait with baited breath for the Republican Congress to abolish net neutrality so you have to pay extra to watch Netflix or Amazon Prime. The DOJ knows that and will do everything it can to stop it. The DOJ is executive branch and Trump is on the record as wanting to trust-bust Comcast.
Disney/21st Century Fox would probably sail past the DOJ because it's not a cable company.
There's an outside chance that Disney will come out of this with 60% control of Hulu but no Fox content for streaming/the MCU.

I hope if nothing else, Disney at least gets Hulu. Like you say, we definitely DO NOT want Comcast to get it.

 

[MasterCat]

Kahren Ramsus:

X-Men is a little better, but the only one that I see them really going out of their way for is Spider-Man. He really is on a different level.

If Comcast tried to sell me X-Men, I'd say "Well, we paid $4 billion for a library of 7,000 Marvel characters. If there are 700 characters in that license agreement, we'll pay $400 million." They're probably worth much more than that considering Fox's positive track record with the license, but that's where I'd start.

I didn't say they would pay $1.5 billion for X-Men and FF. They would be getting the components they want. Avatar, Star Wars etc. etc. etc. for a price they name. Maybe more than $1.5 billion, maybe less than 1.5 billion. I used variables because I don't know the exact details but there are certain things that Disney wants more than others.

Well, Iger is on the record that what's most important to Disney are the Sky stake, Star of India, and a content library to stream.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

If Comcast tried to sell me X-Men, I'd say "Well, we paid $4 billion for a library of 7,000 Marvel characters. If there are 700 characters in that license agreement, we'll pay $400 million." They're probably worth much more than that considering Fox's positive track record with the license, but that's where I'd start.

Oh sure, X-Men is worth something. But I think they are worth more to Fox/Universal than they are to Marvel. The asking price would likely be far more than Marvel would or should be willing to pay.

 

[Big Bang]

What do Comcast primarily want? Is it Sky? Or is it Fox studios?

Or maybe they mainly want the Marvel rights?

International assets mostly. (Sky, Star, Sky News, etc.) Everything else is gravy.

Roberts is going after many of the Fox assets for the same reasons Iger did. Both companies are hoping to leverage the assets in this changing market. Now that Time Warner is out of the mix, Fox is the next biggest player that is up for grabs. To be honest, of the companies that are left, Fox by far is also the most attractive. There are opportunities with Fox that the rest of the media landscape just doesn't offer. So I honestly can't fault Comcast for going after them.

Iger's next move will be very interesting to see. He could back off certain assets, leaving those free for Comcast to scoop up, and refocusing his own bid on the pieces he truly wants most. There are a lot of directions he can go with it.

Iger was the one who approached Murdoch in the first place. I doubt he will walk away easily. Have to watch how Fox signals their response to Comcast's bid over the coming weeks. Iger could sweeten his existing deal and still make the same argument about long term valuation to the Fox shareholders as well. How they react as well is another signal. Bear in mind lastly that Disney is further along in review and thus far no flags have been thrown up that block it. Comcast's bid still carries regulatory issues even with AT&T/TWX clearing.

 

[Zarex]

Well, Iger is on the record that what's most important to Disney are the Sky stake, Star of India, and a content library to stream.

Where is said record? Iger has extolled the virtues of all the Old FOX properties, but I haven't seen a ranking.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Well, Iger is on the record that what's most important to Disney are the Sky stake, Star of India, and a content library to stream.

He’s also on recird saying: “We have the opportunity to expand iconic franchises for new generations of fans just as we have done with Marvel and Star Wars... We’re also looking forward to expanding the Marvel Cinematic Universe to include X-Men, Fantastic Four and Deadpool."

Okay. So we’ve basically established he wants EVERYTHING. Well in that case he better open up the check-book because the price is going up.

But this doesn’t have to be 100% win or 100% lose. There are components that Disney wants that Comcast would be willing to part with. Disney will either have to outbid Comcast or start some real prioritization to figure out what they can realistically walk away with if they’re not willing to top Comcast.

 

[Big Bang]

He’s also on recird saying: “We have the opportunity to expand iconic franchises for new generations of fans just as we have done with Marvel and Star Wars... We’re also looking forward to expanding the Marvel Cinematic Universe to include X-Men, Fantastic Four and Deadpool."

Okay. So we’ve basically established he wants EVERYTHING. Well in that case he better open up the check-book because the price is going up.

But this doesn’t have to be 100% win or 100% lose. There are components that Disney wants that Comcast would be willing to part with. Disney will either have to outbid Comcast or start some real prioritization to figure out what they can realistically walk away with if they’re not willing to top Comcast.

Exactly. It's possible that Disney could start dropping some pieces from their bid. Once Iger responds (if it comes to that), we'll have a much clearer picture.

 

[Detective Conan]

He’s also on recird saying: “We have the opportunity to expand iconic franchises for new generations of fans just as we have done with Marvel and Star Wars... We’re also looking forward to expanding the Marvel Cinematic Universe to include X-Men, Fantastic Four and Deadpool."

Okay. So we’ve basically established he wants EVERYTHING. Well in that case he better open up the check-book because the price is going up.

But this doesn’t have to be 100% win or 100% lose. There are components that Disney wants that Comcast would be willing to part with. Disney will either have to outbid Comcast or start some real prioritization to figure out what they can realistically walk away with if they’re not willing to top Comcast.

Can you imagine the embarrassment Iger will feel if he’s not able to keep his word and not be able to bring back all the Marvel characters back on one roof after he publicly stated that he would? There’s no way he can let Roberts beat him. If nothing else the Marvel rights must go back to Disney when the dust settles from all this merger drama.

 

[DyfeddRex]

$2B is all the worldwide profits of Infinity War.



I thought Iger said he would be willing to let Sky go if it would get the deal done. Don't know if he's walked back from that position since.

Two Bills in Box Office. Profit is after the theatre cuts, the marketing, the production costs, the royalties are figured. My guess is so far the Mouse has about 450 Mega$s of profit, at best, from IW.

Now, that will blossom more with DVD, Streaming, Etc, etc, ad nauseum down the road.

Star is the real thing Iger wants, Sky was the icing on the cake. The content is the meat and potatoes, though. Both need that to bolster up to take on the FAANG gang and their press forward on straight to streaming content.

 

[DACrowe]

Oh sure, X-Men is worth something. But I think they are worth more to Fox/Universal than they are to Marvel. The asking price would likely be far more than Marvel would or should be willing to pay.

Indeed. If Disney loses the bidding war with Comcast (and I don't think they will), Comcast/Fox will have little reason to want to sell the X-Men back to Disney. It is clearly a profitable IP and NBC-Uni has failed to launch any superhero franchises in this decade (they failed spectacularly to do so with The Mummy as a backdoor way into that kind of storytelling).

Why give up a proven and lucrative superhero brand to a rival who will just use it to have potentially another billion-dollar franchise (certainly its demonstrable that each installment could gross in the neighborhood of $700 million)? That also means losing Deadpool and X-Force.

It'll never happen. Now I could see Comcast be willing to sell Fantastic Four back if they view the brand as poisoned. Who knows maybe getting a one-off $800 million check is worth forgoing more failed reboots. But that is probably just wishful thinking on my part.

 

[DACrowe]

I hope if nothing else, Disney at least gets Hulu. Like you say, we definitely DO NOT want Comcast to get it.

Now this I definitely agree with.

 

[2kt09]

Comcast would be getting Fox's stake in Hulu which would just mean Hulu would still be the same joint venture it currently is. No?

 

[Big Bang]

There are a bunch of ways this could go, but here are the assets being acquired:

Fox Entertainment Group
- 20th Century Fox
- Fox Searchlight Pictures
- Blue Sky Studios
- Fox Star Studios
- Fox Networks Group (International)
- Fox Sports Networks
FX Networks
National Geographic Partners
Star TV
Hulu (United States) (30%)
Sky plc (39.14%)
Endemol Shine Group (50%)

Bold is what I can see Disney focusing on, centering their deal on those pieces and dropping off the rest.

 

[ADollarADay]

"This is worth $1.5 billion to you and only you. In anyone else's hands it's unlikely to ever turn a profit, but to YOU it's $1.5+ billion profit, so please accept it instead of $1.5 billion cash." is exactly what I'd say if I was the CEO of Comcast, yes.
And if Iger bought that line, shareholders would beat him like Jack's mother for selling a healthy cow for three beans. Heck, he'd be stupider than Jack because the beans really were magic, while the FF film rights have a cash value of roughly $0 because of the Daredevil and Ghost Rider precedents.

Indeed, what I can possibly see happening is a possible divvying up of rights where Disney uses the 1.525B as part of a large exchange where Disney would also exchange cash to Comcast. This may work out for the best where Disney gets whatever Marvel rights Comcast owns as well. It's a long shot, especially given the Iger - Roberts dislike for each other, but not an impossible one.

Iger was the one who approached Murdoch in the first place. I doubt he will walk away easily. Have to watch how Fox signals their response to Comcast's bid over the coming weeks.

Certainly you mean coming days?

There are a bunch of ways this could go, but here are the assets being acquired:



Bold is what I can see Disney focusing on, centering their deal on those pieces and dropping off the rest.

I can honestly see Disney wanting Blue Sky as well. Comcast now has Dreamworks and Illumination. Both produce 500MM+ movies at the BO with some movies doing over 1B. They don't want to give another very capable animation studio to Comcast. I can see that being a point of contention.

 

[Zarex]

Indeed, what I can possibly see happening is a possible divvying up of rights where Disney uses the 1.525B as part of a large exchange where Disney would also exchange cash to Comcast. This may work out for the best where Disney gets whatever Marvel rights Comcast owns as well. It's a long shot, especially given the Iger - Roberts dislike for each other, but not an impossible one.

Well, long before this battle a common belief was that personal animosity would keep Spidey out of the MCU and the X-Men off TV. Money has a way of smoothing out the edges. I think Iger has got to come out of this with something and I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a negotiation instead of a bidding war.

I can honestly see Disney wanting Blue Sky as well. Comcast now has Dreamworks and Illumination. Both produce 500MM+ movies at the BO with some movies doing over 1B. They don't want to give another very capable animation studio to Comcast. I can see that being a point of contention.

I see a spin off regardless of the winner. Neither party has need of a third film animation studio and thats an easy bone to throw at regulators.

 

[ADollarADay]

 

[Marvel united]

What is this?

 

[Detective Conan]

Boy howdy I gotta hand it to Comcast they really made sure they left no stone unturned in their arguments against a Disney merger. This is going to be an “All or nothing” bidding War unlike we’ve ever
seen before. Roberts really wants Fox.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Even with Comcast's massive offer, I think Murdoch and Fox board members are likely going to want to keep going forward with Disney, especially with the stocks being real enticing and Disney being a likely landing spot for many of the Fox entertainment execs. Plus, Disney's deal included the $14 billion in debt so their initial deal was actually around $66 billion, which is more than competitive with Comcast's offer. I could eventually see Disney bump up their offer a bit to sweeten it.

 

[ADollarADay]

Even with Comcast's massive offer, I think Murdoch and Fox board members are likely going to want to keep going forward with Disney, especially with the stocks being real enticing and Disney being a likely landing spot for many of the Fox entertainment execs. Plus, Disney's deal included the $14 billion in debt so their initial deal was actually around $66 billion, which is more than competitive with Comcast's offer. I could eventually see Disney bump up their offer a bit to sweeten it.

CMCSA's offer also assumes all debt. The offer is 65B cash + all FOX's debt + 1.525B breakup fee payable to Disney + 2.5B guaranteed fee if regulators block the deal.

Disney's offer (including debt) as of 06/13 closing price is ~68-69B.

 

[ADollarADay]

"I wouldn't rule out a small possibility that one of the global behemoths … may come in over the top,"

Gabelli said he thinks Comcast has room for another increase in its bid but that Twenty-First Century Fox Executive Chairman Rupert Murdoch "would prefer taking a tax-deferred deal."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/mar...out-possibility-of-higher-bidder-for-fox.html

I don't think any of the FAANG will try to bid here, but he reiterates what I said earlier. Comcast does have room to increase their bid. Probably up to 85B+ if required.

 

[Marvel united]

I think Murdoch is ultimately going to want to stick with Disney

 

[Raiden]

CMCSA's offer also assumes all debt. The offer is 65B cash + all FOX's debt + 1.525B breakup fee payable to Disney + 2.5B guaranteed fee if regulators block the deal.

Disney's offer (including debt) as of 06/13 closing price is ~68-69B.

Disney will no doubt try to outbid Comcast, or get the bid close enough to earn the stockholders' approval (because Murdoch is already on board). However, Disney will have to bid to the Moon because Comcast isn't going to give up easily; this could go down to the wire.