The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[The Infernal]

Slightly off-topic but I haven’t seen it fully addressed. Why was Trump seemingly so quick to turn on Iger after the Roseanne debacle when he had just congratulated him on the merger a few months prior? Seems like I missed a step. Or is the answer simply: Trump being Trump?

Please, I’m really not inviting any political derailments just curious.

I've seen it said that Trump is easily swayed and will just listen to the most convincing person in the room tells him. Who knows. He does seem to contradict himself often enough.

 

[Marvel united]

ABC made some comments about Trump and he thought it was hypocritical that they didn't fire the reporter who made those comments but fired Roseanne I guess (even though everything she said about Trump was true)

 

[Dark Raven]

ABC made some comments about Trump and he thought it was hypocritical that they didn't fire the reporter who made those comments but fired Roseanne I guess (even though everything she said about Trump was true)

It's ridiculous how it doesn't really have anything to do with Iger himself but Roseanne and because Trump is comparing situations that now he is going to bear some resentment for no reason. It's almost an imagined slight.

 

[Dasher10]

I feel like Disney should raise their bid to a ridiculous level to keep Comcast at bay or reach a deal with Comcast to give up Sky in exchange for the rest of the assets.

 

[GoblinScrier]

ABC made some comments about Trump and he thought it was hypocritical that they didn't fire the reporter who made those comments but fired Roseanne I guess (even though everything she said about Trump was true)

You have your precious I hate President Trump thread to go to...so keep your hatred of our awesome president out of this thread which has nothing to do with him other than his connection to Murdoch/Iger

 

[Detective Conan]

Rising Share Price Strengthens Disney's Bid for Fox Assets.

As Rupert Murdoch considers a response to Comcast Corp.’s $35-a-share cash proposal for 21st Century Fox Inc.’s entertainment assets, it’s worth noting that Walt Disney Co.’s offer has strengthened with its share price.Shares in Disney, which agreed on its deal with Fox in December, rose more than 2 percent in New York on Thursday, to about $108.75.


That uptick means Disney’s all-stock offer for the Fox assets is worth about $29.85 per share, narrowing the premium Comcast has offered to pay to about 17 percent from the 19 percent that it had announced on Wednesday.

This has already been pointed out by others already but lets try to put some hope back in this thread after the recent stream of bad news.

 

[Marvel united]

No question about it, Disney stock is very attractive to the Fox board and especially the Murdochs

 

[MasterCat]

At current prices, they could exceed Comcast's $35-per-share offer by offering 18% more Disney shares than their first offer.

 

[Detective Conan]

https://***********/NiceRevenger/status/1007313446034137088


This guy is not an expert like Greenfield is but his twitter thread on the matter does raise quite a few good points that could partially assuage our worries. This doesn't automatically mean the Mouse will undeniably out-bid the Kabletown but Disney does have an edge over them.

 

[ADollarADay]

I see.
Because all this talk about Comcast doesn't having the money and so on, I just can't take them seriouslly. Will wait for next month to see.

If you don't have money to buy a house or a car, you finance it. This is not that much different. Disney only has $4B in cash in its coffers. Most companies do not have a huge amount of liquid cash on hand.

https://***********/NiceRevenger/status/1007313446034137088


This guy is not an expert like Greenfield is but his twitter thread on the matter does raise quite a few good points that could partially assuage our worries. This doesn't automatically mean the Mouse will undeniably out-bid the Kabletown but Disney does have an edge over them.

A lot of misinformation on this thread. I also loled at Greenfield and expert on the same sentence.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

https://***********/NiceRevenger/status/1007313446034137088


This guy is not an expert like Greenfield is but his twitter thread on the matter does raise quite a few good points that could partially assuage our worries. This doesn't automatically mean the Mouse will undeniably out-bid the Kabletown but Disney does have an edge over them.

A general summary of the opinions I've been seeing:

1. Everything being equal, the Fox board would rather sell to Disney.
2. Comcast probably wants it more than Disney (with something of a feeling of desperation and that they 'have' to get it).
3. Disney can, if they choose, go higher than Comcast can.
4. Disney shareholders are more strongly behind a purchase than Comcast shareholders.

 

[Detective Conan]

A lot of misinformation on this thread. I also loled at Greenfield and expert on the same sentence.

Speaking about Greenfield how credible do you think he is exactly? He’s been making rounds a lot lately(he’s been quoted quite often by the Hollywood reporter) speaking about the Comcast bid for Fox do wonder how big a deal this dude is.

 

[WeaponXCII]

If you don't have money to buy a house or a car, you finance it. This is not that much different. Disney only has $4B in cash in its coffers. Most companies do not have a huge amount of liquid cash on hand.

Wait... wait... wait... Disney has $4B in cash, but they bid $52.4B? I don't know how, but all this time I overlooked that it's "$52.4B in stock". So, if I have this right, a company can use their total stock assets in addition to cash in a purchase? What's the total value of Disney's stock assets? Comcast's? Apologies if this has been discussed.

 

[Raiden]

You have your precious I hate President Trump thread to go to...so keep your hatred of our awesome president out of this thread which has nothing to do with him other than his connection to Murdoch/Iger

 

[Big Bang]

Wait... wait... wait... Disney has $4B in cash, but they bid $52.4B? I don't know how, but all this time I overlooked that it's "$52.4B in stock". So, if I have this right, a company can use their total stock assets in addition to cash in a purchase? What's the total value of Disney's stock assets? Comcast's? Apologies if this has been discussed.

Simplified, think of a company as an individual with a total economic value. This person can have credit based on assets they own, amount of income, etc. Like Dollar replied before, if you don't have the total cash on hand to purchase something, you borrow it. It becomes debt, and you are expected to pay back that debt. That debt also accrues interest. So you end up paying the total amount borrowed (principle) + the interest accrued.

A publicly traded corporation's total value is measured in Market Capitalization. To save everyone's eyes on the wall of text necessary to explain the concept, here is the wiki on it. Read it at night. It'll help you sleep.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization


current market cap

Disney : $158.06 Billion

Comcast: $148.73 Billion

So you should get an idea as to how these companies can borrow these ungodly amounts of money, but like I said it is much more complicated than this in reality. Adding the Fox assets to either one gives them a healthy boost, but they still pale in comparison to the titans of tech who are all >$500 Billion.


Sure gives you some scale where the Marvel rights fit in the grand scheme of things.

 

[WeaponXCII]

Simplified, think of a company as an individual with a total economic value. This person can have credit based on assets they own, amount of income, etc. Like Dollar replied before, if you don't have the total cash on hand to purchase something, you borrow it. It becomes debt, and you are expected to pay back that debt. That debt also accrues interest. So you end up paying the total amount borrowed (principle) + the interest accrued.

A publicly traded corporation's total value is measured in Market Capitalization. To save everyone's eyes on the wall of text necessary to explain the concept, here is the wiki on it. Read it at night. It'll help you sleep.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization


current market cap

Disney : $158.06 Billion

Comcast: $148.73 Billion

So you should get an idea as to how these companies can borrow these ungodly amounts of money, but like I said it is much more complicated than this in reality. Adding the Fox assets to either one gives them a healthy boost, but they still pale in comparison to the titans of tech who are all >$500 Billion.


Sure gives you some scale where the Marvel rights fit in the grand scheme of things.

Thanks for the reply, Big Bang! You really have a way of breaking things down in a way that's easy to digest. Ok- two questions:

1. Disney has the bigger market cap. That's the bottom line, right? Cut and dried. Done deal. Pack it up. Or am I oversimplifying things?

2. What is Disney's disincentive to going to that $158.06 billion right away after Comcast's first bid (god, why do I have a feeling I'd be an awful CEO?....)?

 

[Detective Conan]

Even if the Disney deal falls at least I got Spidey in the MCU. I may never get to see the big blue eyed ever lovin' rock man slugging it out with the Jade Giant.
But at least I got to see Spidey in the Marvel Universe so that will always be a major win!

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Thanks for the reply, Big Bang! You really have a way of breaking things down in a way that's easy to digest. Ok- two questions:

1. Disney has the bigger market cap. That's the bottom line, right? Cut and dried. Done deal. Pack it up. Or am I oversimplifying things?

2. What is Disney's disincentive to going to that $158.06 billion right away after Comcast's first bid (god, why do I have a feeling I'd be an awful CEO?....)?

Just having a bigger market cap doesn’t necessarily mean you have the bigger borrowing capability. There are a lot of other factors ( just like the value of your house doesn’t dictate mortgage size and terms - if you’re unemployed, you’re going to have trouble getting a $480,000 mortgage on a $500,000 house). With that said, not only can Disney probably borrow more, but they should be borrowing far less anyway because their offer will likely remain primarily stock.

Why not go to all they can spend now? Because they want to spend as little as possible and Fox may not be worth more than $70 billion. Disney is only going to spend, at most, what they think it’s worth.

If Disney goes to $100 billion, and Comcast never intended to bid more than $70 billion, Disney just threw away $30 billion.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Even if the Disney deal falls at least I got Spidey in the MCU. I may never get to see the big blue eyed ever lovin' rock man slugging it out with the Jade Giant.
But at least I got to see Spidey in the Marvel Universe so that will always be a major win!

If Comcast buys Fox, and if they decide to make a crappy film just to hang on to the rights, I am going to lose my s***. Seriously, I can’t even imagine how I’ll deal with that if it happens... but we’re still a long way from that point.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

If Comcast buys Fox, and if they decide to make a crappy film just to hang on to the rights, I am going to lose my s***. Seriously, I can’t even imagine how I’ll deal with that if it happens... but we’re still a long way from that point.

With how uninterested they and Universal are in doing any Hulk film, I'd actually be kinda surprised if they intended to release any Marvel film.

 

[ADollarADay]

I think next up we'll see:

1) 21CF's board adjourn or postpone the July 10th shareholder meeting. There's a small chance they could reject Comcast's current bid and keep their FOR recommendation for the shareholders
2a) Disney does nothing in the unlikely event 21CF's board rejects CMCSA's offer
2b) Disney counters and matches Comcast's bid with stock and cash offer. Probably lower stock and higher cash (32.5B stock, 32.5B cash). Probably a seat at the board from one of the Murdochs. Higher break up fee guarantee.
2c) Disney ups their all stock offer going for 1 DIS for every 3 FOX/FOXA shares. That would bring the offer to about $35/share as well and depending on how DIS is at time of closing (say if it's $125 or whatever) it could offer a significant premium. Tax deferred on top of that. This would dilute DIS stock though and it would be overpaying for FOX IMO
3) CMCSA could up their offer, probably to as much as $40-45 per share, which would bring it up to a ridiculous 80-85B+ equity. On top of that they would have to assume Fox's 14B debt and pay Disney 1.525B and have a guaranteed break up fee.

If #3 happens I believe Iger walks away with 1.525B. FOX is not worth 65B IMO, let alone 85B+. It would be interesting to see the reaction from Comcast shareholders (who are not voting to approve this bid).

If Comcast buys Fox, and if they decide to make a crappy film just to hang on to the rights, I am going to lose my s***. Seriously, I can’t even imagine how I’ll deal with that if it happens... but we’re still a long way from that point.

I hope it doesn't come to that, but if Comcast wins the bid I am willing to bet 1K to the winner's charity of choice that they will have a crappy film to hang on to the rights.

With how uninterested they and Universal are in doing any Hulk film, I'd actually be kinda surprised if they intended to release any Marvel film.

Universal is uniterested in selling the Hulk distribution rights to Disney. They want that 8-9% theatrical distribution fee that a standalone The Incredible Hulk 2 or World War Hulk would generate. Pretty much guaranteed 800MM+ at the BO in this day and age.

If Comcast were to win the bid, an X-Men or FF film would have Comcast owning the production AND distribution rights. Completely different situation.

 

[Detective Conan]

If Comcast buys Fox, and if they decide to make a crappy film just to hang on to the rights, I am going to lose my s***. Seriously, I can’t even imagine how I’ll deal with that if it happens... but we’re still a long way from that point.

As much as I would love for the First Family to go home if Universal or a post-merger Comcast-owned Fox made the first legitimately good FF film then I wouldn't complain. It would never be as ideal as Marvel Studios making it but if the film looked good and it turned out to be the first well made FF film after three failed attempts(Fourth time the charm in this case!) then I'd be content with the FF remaining separate from the MCU. Still think Disney is going to get those Marvel rights when the dust settles but I could be open to Universal doing FF if they get the right creative team and don't behave like....old Fox.

I'll take what I can get is all I'm saying. I just want to see a good FF film for once.

 

[Raiden]

As much as I would love for the First Family to go home if Universal or a post-merger Comcast-owned Fox made the first legitimately good FF film then I wouldn't complain. It would never be as ideal as Marvel Studios making it but if the film looked good and it turned out to be the first well made FF film after three failed attempts(Fourth time the charm in this case!) then I'd be content with the FF remaining separate from the MCU. Still think Disney is going to get those Marvel rights when the dust settles but I could be open to Universal doing FF if they get the right creative team and don't behave like....old Fox.

I'll take what I can get is all I'm saying. I just want to see a good FF film for once.

After I saw the wonderful things that Spider-Man is doing in MCU, I'm expecting nothing less than having the First Family of Marvel in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Anything less will be...uncivilized.

 

[Detective Conan]

[YT]CBhKv3eYOwU[/YT]

 

[Crimz]

I think next up we'll see:

1) 21CF's board adjourn or postpone the July 10th shareholder meeting. There's a small chance they could reject Comcast's current bid and keep their FOR recommendation for the shareholders
2a) Disney does nothing in the unlikely event 21CF's board rejects CMCSA's offer
2b) Disney counters and matches Comcast's bid with stock and cash offer. Probably lower stock and higher cash (32.5B stock, 32.5B cash). Probably a seat at the board from one of the Murdochs. Higher break up fee guarantee.
2c) Disney ups their all stock offer going for 1 DIS for every 3 FOX/FOXA shares. That would bring the offer to about $35/share as well and depending on how DIS is at time of closing (say if it's $125 or whatever) it could offer a significant premium. Tax deferred on top of that. This would dilute DIS stock though and it would be overpaying for FOX IMO
3) CMCSA could up their offer, probably to as much as $40-45 per share, which would bring it up to a ridiculous 80-85B+ equity. On top of that they would have to assume Fox's 14B debt and pay Disney 1.525B and have a guaranteed break up fee.

If #3 happens I believe Iger walks away with 1.525B. FOX is not worth 65B IMO, let alone 85B+. It would be interesting to see the reaction from Comcast shareholders (who are not voting to approve this bid).



I hope it doesn't come to that, but if Comcast wins the bid I am willing to bet 1K to the winner's charity of choice that they will have a crappy film to hang on to the rights.



Universal is uniterested in selling the Hulk distribution rights to Disney. They want that 8-9% theatrical distribution fee that a standalone The Incredible Hulk 2 or World War Hulk would generate. Pretty much guaranteed 800MM+ at the BO in this day and age.

If Comcast were to win the bid, an X-Men or FF film would have Comcast owning the production AND distribution rights. Completely different situation.

How likely is a split?