The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - Part 19

[Detective Conan]

Disney really wants Sky. Don’t think they would ever even entertain the thought of having a discussion with Comcast about them getting what Iger dubbed the “crown jewel”. Iger definitely views Sky as way more valuable than Fox’s Marvel assets.

Iger would rather slit his own wrists than have a sit-down with his mortal enemy Brian Roberts for that.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Disney really wants Sky. Don’t think they would ever even entertain the thought of having a discussion with Comcast about them getting what Iger dubbed the “crown jewel”. Iger definitely views Sky as way more valuable than Fox’s Marvel assets.

Iger would rather slit his own wrists than have a sit-down with his mortal enemy Brian Roberts for that.

But there comes a point that it makes sense to deal. If Comcast continues to bid, they could force Disney to pay $90 billion for Fox. Oh, and by the way, once they've done that, they may not have the resources to buy the rest of Sky anyway.

If Disney feels confident that selling Sky at this point will prevent Comcast from making any additional bids, that's a big incentive.

When you consider the cash swing (cash from Comcast for Disney/Fox's share of Sky plus the cash Disney won't be spending on Fox for a higher bid and the cash they'd have to pay for remainder of Sky), there has to be a point that Disney doesn't want Sky at those very large billions it will cost them.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Iger has staked his legacy on purchasing Fox. He hasn't specifically staked his legacy on purchasing Sky.

 

[Detective Conan]

But there comes a point that it makes sense to deal. If Comcast continues to bid, they could force Disney to pay $90 billion for Fox. Oh, and by the way, once they've done that, they may not have the resources to buy the rest of Sky anyway.

If Disney feels confident that selling Sky at this point will prevent Comcast from making any additional bids, that's a big incentive.

When you consider the cash swing (cash from Comcast for Disney's share of Sky plus the cash Disney won't be spending on Fox and the remainder of Sky), there has to be a point that Disney doesn't want Sky at those very large billions it will cost them.

I can see your point and Disney doesn’t need Sky to complete the deal with Fox so I’d rather Comcast get Sky and Disney can be just fine with Star India (which is also very valuable).

 

[Iceman]

But step back and think about it. If Comcast is really willing to go to $85 billion, what are they waiting for? I think this hesitation, at a critical time in which, if the DOJ grants approval before Comcast bids again, Comcast will be at a huge disadvantage, is telll us something. Comcast is blinking. They may not be out of it yet, but for some currently unknown reason, they’re hesitating. I think it’s very likely there is disagreement among the board regarding if they really do want to make another offer and/or they could be having trouble gathering the resources they need ( I wouldn’t lend them money at this point without charging a rate high enough to cover the risk ).

We heard rumors that they might offer a $41 per share bid. I don’t think that’s enough, and the comcast board probably realizes that as well. That bid may have been their next planned step, but now that they realize it’s not enough, they may not have the will or ability to go higher.

I just think that if they were still all in, they would, at the very least, let the world know a new bid was coming.

Disney have come back with a quick, strong response at the same time as encouraging progress with the DoJ. The resolve of the diehards at Comcast will be tested (Roberts himself is probably in do or die, but he can't do it alone), while those on the borderline will be getting very nervous. Imagine being an undiversified large Comcast stakeholder right now. I'd be wanting to sell some stock because the future would become so uncertain if they won this deal at huge and unsustainable cost. Price is and always will be king. Any asset, no matter how good, even the rights to every property in existence, is capable of being grossly and ruinously overpriced.

 

[Detective Conan]

Disney have come back with a quick, strong response at the same time as encouraging progress with the DoJ. The resolve of the diehards at Comcast will be tested (Roberts himself is probably in do or die, but he can't do it alone), while those on the borderline will be getting very nervous. Imagine being an undiversified large Comcast stakeholder right now. I'd be wanting to sell some stock because the future would become so uncertain if they won this deal at huge and unsustainable cost. Price is and always will be king. Any asset, no matter how good, even the rights to every property in existence, is capable of being grossly and ruinously overpriced.

My real question is who will be hurt more over this bidding war: Disney or Comcast? I know that Disney is throwing in stock but I wonder what’s their limit to how much they can go before the company’s shares plummet to dangerous levels. Will this bidding war hurt them more or less than Comcast?

 

[Dark Raven]

But step back and think about it. If Comcast is really willing to go to $85 billion, what are they waiting for? I think this hesitation, at a critical time in which, if the DOJ grants approval before Comcast bids again, Comcast will be at a huge disadvantage, is telll us something. Comcast is blinking. They may not be out of it yet, but for some currently unknown reason, they’re hesitating. I think it’s very likely there is disagreement among the board regarding if they really do want to make another offer and/or they could be having trouble gathering the resources they need ( I wouldn’t lend them money at this point without charging a rate high enough to cover the risk ).

We heard rumors that they might offer a $41 per share bid. I don’t think that’s enough, and the comcast board probably realizes that as well. That bid may have been their next planned step, but now that they realize it’s not enough, they may not have the will or ability to go higher.

I just think that if they were still all in, they would, at the very least, let the world know a new bid was coming.

Well maybe they are willing, but they need time to come up with that cash since it won't be stocks. Maybe it will take longer than just early next week, which is why they may have the money the week after.

If they are holding someone hostage and are expecting a heavy ransom and the ransomees are saying that they can't get that cash in time, then Comcast may be waiting on them. Who knows what the reason is. But perhaps they just can't come up with it so quickly.

Or maybe Comcast want to lull Disney into a false sense of security and are biding their time to put in a strategic bid that will leave Disney scrambling.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Well maybe they are willing, but they need time to come up with that cash since it won't be stocks. Maybe it will take longer than just early next week, which is why they may have the money the week after.

If they are holding someone hostage and are expecting a heavy ransom and the ransomees are saying that they can't get that cash in time, then Comcast may be waiting on them. Who knows what the reason is. But perhaps they just can't come up with it so quickly.

Or maybe Comcast want to lull Disney into a false sense of security and are biding their time to put in a strategic bid that will leave Disney scrambling.

But even that is good for us. If they were really ready for and anticipating going higher, they'd have the cash. If they're having trouble getting cash, that means they may be approaching a limit.

I just can't see a scenario in which Comcast's hesitation is good for Comcast and bad for Disney.

 

[wobbly]

Or maybe Comcast want to lull Disney into a false sense of security and are biding their time to put in a strategic bid that will leave Disney scrambling.

I suspect Comcast were caught by surprise with Disney's improved offer. Most I think thought they might match Comcasts and trust thier better regulatory position would win out, but Iger covered both angles: upped the bid over Comcasts, and put on offer shares or cash should any shareholders prefer the latter option.

Now if Comcast's goal was to get Disney to pay a lot more for Fox, and leave Sky on a virtual plate for themselves to snap up, mission accomplished (unless Iger is willing to get into another bidding war for Sky, which might well be too much even for him).

If Comcast did and still do want Fox though then they may be scrambling themselves to secure the backing required to go all in for them. Thing to consider is if they do go higher and win, it's them lumbered with a collosal debt having paid way over the top for it.

 

[wobbly]

I'd add this: Comcast went 19% over Disney's original offer to make it something Fox, and Disney, couldn't ignore.

Can they go 19% again over $71 billion?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I suspect Comcast were caught by surprise with Disney's improved offer. Most I think thought they might match Comcasts and trust thier better regulatory position would win out, but Iger covered both angles: upped the bid over Comcasts, and put on offer shares or cash should any shareholders prefer the latter option.

Now if Comcast's goal was to get Disney to pay a lot more for Fox, and leave Sky on a virtual plate for themselves to snap up, mission accomplished (unless Iger is willing to get into another bidding war for Sky, which might well be too much even for him).

If Comcast did and still do want Fox though then they may be scrambling themselves to secure the backing required to go all in for them. Thing to consider is if they do go higher and win, it's them lumbered with a collosal debt having paid way over the top for it.

Yeah, Disney's offer surprised me, and I suspect it surprised Comcast. Because of Disney's other advantages, I expected them to simply match Comcast with the idea that everything being equal, Fox and Fox shareholders would rather just continue down the path they've started.

But Disney went above and beyond that. I suspect the $41 per share bid rumor came about because that was the next (and possibly final) bid Comcast intended to offer and had prepared to offer after a presumed matching offer from Disney.

In that case, the $41 dollar bid would have been enough to get people interested. With the higher Disney Bid, that $41 probably doesn't do it.

I suspect that Comcast is doing two things right now:

1. Trying to get more cash
2. Trying to decide if they really want to spend that cash

And if the DOJ decision comes in before they've presented a new offer, that could be the end.

 

[Detective Conan]

If Brian Roberts goes all in and opts for 100 billion dollars(insane) then that is gonna piss off his investors so mightily they might want to oust him from the company(maybe not but you never know). I’d say Comcast’s final offer will be between 85-90 billion with stock thrown in and that’ll be it for them unless they’re willing to go $ 200 billion(jesus, would that have shareholders panicking).

 

[Detective Conan]

Yeah, Disney's offer surprised me, and I suspect it surprised Comcast.

It didn’t surprise me since I already knew The Mouse wasn’t going down without a fight. This deal is everything to Iger(he gave up a presidential bid for this) and even if Iger overspends he’ll see to it that he gets Fox.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

It didn’t surprise me since I already knew The Mouse wasn’t going down without a fight. This deal is everything to Iger(he gave up a presidential bid for this) and even if Iger overspends he’ll see to it that he gets Fox.

But if it were me, I would have just bid $65 billion with the idea that I could go higher as necessary. But Disney may have decided the $71 billion bid would bury Comcast, and it seems like that might have worked.

Maybe that's why Iger gets paid the big bucks.

 

[ADollarADay]

Comcast was willing to play ball and let Disney have the Marvel and domestic rights:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/standi...ox-media-titans-rocky-relationship-1529617091

 

[Iceman]

But if it were me, I would have just bid $65 billion with the idea that I could go higher as necessary. But Disney may have decided the $71 billion bid would bury Comcast, and it seems like that might have worked.

Maybe that's why Iger gets paid the big bucks.

That is how I bid on things too. You gain favour with the seller when you bid like that as you show if nothing else that you aren't going to waste their time going back and forth with the rival in small increments (especially when no transaction is guaranteed anyway, so it's better to progress to the transaction stage asap so the seller gets security more quickly). With big increments you get to the endgame faster which benefits the seller and then puts the pressure on the rival. If I were a seller and one party put in a great counter-bid and the rival put in a bid only a little higher I would just refuse that offer until they come back with something more serious (and by implication a commitment to only come back in similar increments until they were giving me their very final offer) and in the meantime progress the transaction with the other party to push the rival buyer to put up or shut up. It's in everyone's interests for the "games" to be concluded as quickly as possible.

 

[Big Bang]

Comcast was willing to play ball and let Disney have the Marvel and domestic rights:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/standi...ox-media-titans-rocky-relationship-1529617091

Can you summarize? Paywall is blocking further reading.

 

[Marvel united]

Comcast was willing to play ball and let Disney have the Marvel and domestic rights:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/standi...ox-media-titans-rocky-relationship-1529617091

 

[Dark Raven]

Comcast was willing to play ball and let Disney have the Marvel and domestic rights:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/standi...ox-media-titans-rocky-relationship-1529617091

Can you post the article here? It says I have to subscribe to the WSJ to read it.

And it's all very well saying that they were willing to let them have it, but how would Disney have known that if they don't communicate it to them? It's all well and good saying it afterwards but sounds more like some form of emotional manipulation.

What do they intend to do now?

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

I just wonder if somewhere out there in the cosmos if Uatu is watching this bidding war and just staring pensively with his Mickey Ears on.

 

[Detective Conan]

Comcast was willing to play ball and let Disney have the Marvel and domestic rights:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/standi...ox-media-titans-rocky-relationship-1529617091

Hmm, interesting. Figured as much, and actually from the sound of it most of the folks on this board would’ve actually like this scenario as well since most of us don’t give a flying f**k who buys Fox.

We all just want all the Marvel rights back home at Disney. What a missed opportunity now Iger is going to overspend on a costly bidding war that may drag out. Ugh.

Edit: By Marvel rights does that mean that if Roberts bought Fox would that mean he’d gladly forfeit the Fox Marvel rights to Iger as well if not then never mind.

 

[wobbly]

I'm not a WSJ subscriber. Can someone do the old copy & paste here?

 

[Detective Conan]

Yeah, I think folks need to stop posting links to WSJ unless they copy and paste the article here because not everyone is a suscriber to the publication.

 

[Dark Raven]

It sounds almost like it's a bargaining ploy now saying that he would've let them have those rights if they let him have the rest of Fox. But is Iger content with just the Marvel rights?

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

It's that Disney streaming service man. Iger is going for broke but I like his style.

Obviously we're all itching for the Fox-Marvel properties but you gotta remember, if they get all of Fox, we can possibly see a Disney reboot of Buffy the Vampire Slayer (which I'm 50/50 on), and spinoffs of Alien, X-Files and the lot.

Disney just wants to Pac man everything. But I'm here for it.

Hmm, interesting. Figured as much, and actually from the sound of it most of the folks on this board would’ve actually like this scenario as well since most of us don’t give a flying f**k who buys Fox.

We all just want all the Marvel rights back home at Disney. What a missed opportunity now Iger is going to overspend on a costly bidding war that may drag out. Ugh.

Edit: By Marvel rights does that mean that if Roberts bought Fox would that mean he’d gladly forfeit the Fox Marvel rights to Iger as well if not then never mind.