The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - Part 20

[Marvel united]

So Reuters said there's still a chance Comcast might bid again :/

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

So Reuters said there's still a chance Comcast might bid again :/

Is this the article you’re talking about?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1K61XH

If so, I think it’s basically saying: “Everybody knows Comcast won’t bid again, but Roberts is keeping his options open.”

 

[Marvel united]

Is this the article you’re talking about?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1K61XH

If so, I think it’s basically saying: “Everybody knows Comcast won’t bid again, but Roberts is keeping his options open.”

Yeah, that one. I just want Roberts to give up already

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yeah, that one. I just want Roberts to give up already

I think the chances of Comcast bidding again, and the chances of that bid being high enough to be taken seriously are quickly approaching zero.

But there's no strategic advantage for Roberts to say: "That's it, I'm done. I'm not going to bid." and there is some advantage in keeping Disney guessing as he tries to get Sky.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If it weren't for anti-trust concerns, I think Roberts would say: "I won't bid again for Fox if you stop bidding for Sky."

But he can't say that and he would lose all leverage of even the implication if he admitted he was already done with Fox.

 

[Big Bang]

1) Can anyone tell if everything goes smooth from now on and shareholders vote happen on 27th Julay (Friday). So will we know by Friday evening that "yes" shareholders approved the deal ? (provided that they approve which i hope they likely will)

Yes. I believe we will know by Friday evening or very shortly thereafter.

We should know within the first hour or two. Given how closely watched this deal is, we'll know relatively quickly. [SPOILER: It will get approved]

2) US regulators have already approved the deal, so what other countries are left apart from India (Star Group)? Because Sky's 39% stake and Endemol's 50% (soon to be sold) are stake european oriented assets. How long will it take? any idea

I think this is the trickiest part. I don't know what approvals remain (some may be trickling in between now and July 27). Overall, it shouldn't be overly complicated since we're talking about a US company with primarily US assets being bought by a US company.

What usually happens in buyouts like this, is that the main buyout, which is US based and operates can go through, but internationally held assets like Endermol and Star can be held by a trust in that country if the domestic deal is completed. The sale of Fox itself won't be contingent on any of the international assets. If for example, an issue were to come up, it would be easier to work through the trust rather than hold up everything else. Including a sale of that international asset. Since these are separate entities that aren't directly integrated into Fox (except on ownership), they are handled a little differently. I would suspect many of the international pieces are approved, or close to being approved. It is possible we may not even hear about any approvals until the main deal closes.

3) After 27th July, will Fiege be able to say that yes now he can see x-men and f4 coming home? I don't think Feige will say much until after the official closing. He knows it's happening and we know it's happening. When asked, he will probably try to keep focus on more immediate and upcoming films with vague answers such as "we have a lot of stories we're thinking about telling in the coming years". They may announce something at Comic-Con next year, but if so, it will be very planned and not something Feige will just mention in an interview or tweet. We might get some little tidbits in upcoming films, but we've seen historically they typically tell us the films that are coming up before hinting at those films in other films.

Once shareholders approve of the deal, they work towards closure. They won't announce any dates, but usually those go pretty quickly. It is kind of like closing on a property. For example, once AT&T won its case with the DOJ, they closed within a couple of days. However, they still have to wait on approval from the Judge on the sale of the RSN's. Don't worry, the judge isn't going to block that or anything since the both parties (Disney + DOJ) agree to it. That should happen in either Aug-Sep depending on the case load of the court. Domestically, that is really the only order of business once the shareholders approve. The lawyers will have closure all set to go upon that approval, so things will start moving pretty expediently after that. Disney will be selling the RSN's immediately after they close the deal to whomever offers to buy (and get approval).

 

[daddydivine]

I feel like when it becomes official we should have National Marvel Day in recognition of most of the MCU finally coming together. We should sing hymns and gather around bonfires.

 

[ADollarADay]

Further guidance on where foreign regulatory approval should be given August 7th.

Also,

39% of 34B (100% of Sky) = 13.26B
30% of 8.7B (100% of Hulu) = 2.61B

The below are very conservative. I think the worth of each of the below assets are quite likely below that

Fox's non physical (i.e. Google Play, itunes, PSN, etc) distribution rights to Dreamwork Animation movies = 50MM
Hulk, Namor, and other outstanding Marvel movie rights = 200MM
Marvel Theme Park rights East of the Mississippi and Spiderman theme park rights in Japan = 500MM

Swapping all assets like Faber suggested would require an additional ~10B payment - at a minimum - from CMCSA to DIS to complete the transaction.

 

[DalekbusterFitz]

I feel like when it becomes official we should have National Marvel Day in recognition of most of the MCU finally coming together. We should sing hymns and gather around bonfires.

MIGHT be a bit OTT...

 

[Random490]

3) After 27th July, will Fiege be able to say that yes now he can see x-men and f4 coming home? I don't think Feige will say much until after the official closing. He knows it's happening and we know it's happening. When asked, he will probably try to keep focus on more immediate and upcoming films with vague answers such as "we have a lot of stories we're thinking about telling in the coming years". They may announce something at Comic-Con next year, but if so, it will be very planned and not something Feige will just mention in an interview or tweet. We might get some little tidbits in upcoming films, but we've seen historically they typically tell us the films that are coming up before hinting at those films in other films.

After the deal closes Feige will have to have a conversation with the head of 21st Century Fox. I don't think F4 will be a problem but the X-men property has been a good earner for Fox so there's a possibility they'll want to keep making those films, whether on their own or in a joint production like Marvel did with Sony. Remember just because Disney buys Fox doesn't mean they don't exist anymore. They are still a separate company from Marvel just now with the same owner. There's no doubt that if it get contentious Feige and Perlmutter can throw their weight around and have Disney to force the rights back. Or Fox could just let it go on the spot. There's no telling until they have that conversation and sign an agreement.

I can picture a meeting/conference call like that happening within a few weeks to 2 months (their both busy guys) after closing the deal, maybe a week or two for legal formalities after the decision. I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the year we'll see a headline confirming who will be producing the films going forward, in the following months which current films would be safe or canceled, then maybe announce the new films and their release dates at Comic Con next year.

 

[Dark Raven]

Dark Phoenix is shot, CGI post paid for, had reshoots, and is back in post. The budget must have been at least $180 million like Apocalypse. No film of that budget has ever not be released to cinemas.
Get over it.

Maybe the reshoots are to turn them into completely different non-X-Men characters and remove any reference to the franchise. It could still be released but not as an X-Men film.

It can be released as Fifty Shades of Dark Grey.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Dark Phoenix definitely will get released for all the reasons MasterCat said. New Mutants is the one which I think is highly questionable at this point.

 

[Dark Raven]

Dark Phoenix definitely will get released for all the reasons MasterCat said. New Mutants is the one which I think is highly questionable at this point.

They can still release New Mutants as a non-comic book horror film. Just rename everyone.

 

[MasterCat]

Dark Phoenix definitely will get released for all the reasons MasterCat said. New Mutants is the one which I think is highly questionable at this point.

I have no idea what's going on with that one or how much has been spent. It's an odd situation; they're a set of character never-before-seen in live action. If it's a bad horror movie they have a product identity problem, whereas the core X-Men in Dark Phoenix have already been in one incredibly bad movie and Apocalypse without damage.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Dark Phoenix is shot, CGI post paid for, had reshoots, and is back in post. The budget must have been at least $180 million like Apocalypse. No film of that budget has ever not be released to cinemas.
Get over it.

and i look forward to watching the final chapter of the 20 year history that is the FoX-Men

a farewell and a celebration of the past, present and future!

 

[Zarex]

After the deal closes Feige will have to have a conversation with the head of 21st Century Fox. I don't think F4 will be a problem but the X-men property has been a good earner for Fox so there's a possibility they'll want to keep making those films, whether on their own or in a joint production like Marvel did with Sony. Remember just because Disney buys Fox doesn't mean they don't exist anymore. They are still a separate company from Marvel just now with the same owner. There's no doubt that if it get contentious Feige and Perlmutter can throw their weight around and have Disney to force the rights back. Or Fox could just let it go on the spot. There's no telling until they have that conversation and sign an agreement.

I can picture a meeting/conference call like that happening within a few weeks to 2 months (their both busy guys) after closing the deal, maybe a week or two for legal formalities after the decision. I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the year we'll see a headline confirming who will be producing the films going forward, in the following months which current films would be safe or canceled, then maybe announce the new films and their release dates at Comic Con next year.

I see all Fox's Marvel rights transferring over to Disney, if only to allow Disney's new streaming service to have first crack at future X-Men and FF films. Otherwise they will end up in HBO's pay window due to a contract that doesn't expire until 2022. I could see Avatar switching studios as well.

 

[Marvel united]

Umm, 20th Centurry Fox and all of it's properties will be broken up and absorbed into Disney once the deal closes. Fox will not be an entity anymore so they'll have zero say on what happens with the X-Men

 

[Detective Conan]

So Reuters said there's still a chance Comcast might bid again :/

It’s a nothingburger. When CNBC(which is owned by Comcast) is using wording like “highly unlikely” to describe the chances of Comcast throwing their hat into the ring for Fox again then I’d say the chances of Comcast bidding again are very slim. There’s just too many disadvantages for Comcast to just bid for the assets again when they have a much better chance of getting Sky. Now is it possible that they might bid again? Sure.


But you know what else is possible? Life on other planets!

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Umm, 20th Centurry Fox and all of it's properties will be broken up and absorbed into Disney once the deal closes. Fox will not be an entity anymore so they'll have zero say on what happens with the X-Men

That's what I thought.

After the deal, 21CF is officially one of Lord Feige's heralds. There's no discussion to be had.

 

[Detective Conan]

Umm, 20th Centurry Fox and all of it's properties will be broken up and absorbed into Disney once the deal closes. Fox will not be an entity anymore so they'll have zero say on what happens with the X-Men

It’s a bit bittersweet that the Fox-verse will soon be coming to an end. Even though I had problems with it; they did help bring the superhero genre back from the brink of extinction(along with Blade).

 

[MasterCat]

That's what I thought.

After the deal, 21CF is officially one of Lord Feige's heralds. There's no discussion to be had.

Heh, what? You're implying the Aliens/Predator universe, Planet of the Apes, The X-Files, Die Hard and Home Alone would belong to Lord Feige. Plus Fox's animated sitcoms.

 

[Marvel united]

It’s a nothingburger. When CNBC(which is owned by Comcast) is using wording like “highly unlikely” to describe the chances of Comcast throwing their hat into the ring for Fox again then I’d say the chances of Comcast bidding again are very slim. There’s just too many disadvantages for Comcast to just bid for the assets again when they have a much better chance of getting Sky. Now is it possible that might bid again? Sure.


But you know what else is possible. Life in other planets!

Good point

 

[Chip Chipperson]

It’s a bit bittersweet that the Fox-verse will soon be coming to an end. Even though I had problems with it; they did help bring the superhero genre back from the brink of extinction(along with Blade).

Nothing lasts forever

Except maybe Disney

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Nothing lasts forever

Except maybe Disney

Seriously. Mickey has the Sorcerer's hat and the Infinity Stones.

This is all his shxt.

 

[MasterCat]

So seriously, 20th Century Fox Animation will continue to exist. None of its four animated sitcoms (and Futurama isn't part of that) fit the image Disney wants to associate with animation. Any future Ice Age could go to a different studio within the megacorp though.
Independence Day is not a live franchise. Just 2 more flicks that would be acceptable on a Disney-branded streaming service.
Planet of the Apes is unlikely to get another film for a long time, but adds 9 films for the streaming service. Maybe Disney will greenlight a streaming show?
Home Alone is... already under ABC Family.
I don't know how Disney feels about The X-Files.

The 20th Century Fox brand should probably be kept around for Aliens, Predator, Die Hard, and any other R-rated fare, replacing the Touchstone branding.