The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 24

[Spider-Fan]

I think there is going to be a significant difference between a Fox X-Men ceiling and a Disney/Marvel X-Men ceiling.

Spider-Man's wasn't. Spider-Man: Homecoming did great, but it failed to even outgross Spider-Man 3. X-Men have had a bunch of films by this point. They're not new. We've basically had an X-Men movie like every 2-3 years since 2000. That ceiling won't be much higher.

 

[Spider-Fan]

That's faulty logic. Do we know the ceiling and floor for FF movies at this point as well?

No because the FF's movies are older before CBMs were what they were today and no one saw Fan4stic. X-Men have had a consistent presence since 2000. They never left. But that said, I don't think our first MCU FF film will be a billion dollar film either.

 

[Marvel united]

The Avengers was something new for audiences to experience. The X-Men are not. We know the ceiling/floor of an X-Men movie at this point.

And of course it doesn’t preclude the possibility of an MCU X-Men movie breaking that ceiling and make a little more than before but I still don’t see the Mutants joining the billion dollar club.

The mutants absolutely could join the billion dollar club. Just because the Fox movies have never made it past 700m doesn't mean Marvel's take won't ever cross it. We only have ever had one example of a cinematic X-Men franchise to compare and it's grown stale and never evolved with the times. If Marvel can make a Guardians of the Galaxy movie make over 800m at the box-office, they can do the same for the X-Men. Maybe not in the first movie but after the X-Men are firmly established In the MCU. By the second film, I could see the brand being stronger than it ever has been in the last 13 years.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The mutants absolutely could join the billion dollar club. Just because the Fox movies have never made it past 700m doesn't mean Marvel's take won't ever cross it. We only have ever had one example of a cinematic X-Men franchise to compare and it's grown stale and never evolved with the times. If Marvel can make a Guardians of the Galaxy movie make over 800m at the box-office, they can do the same for the X-Men. Maybe not in the first movie but after the X-Men are firmly established In the MCU. By the second film, I could see the brand being stronger than it ever has been in the last 13 years.

I think with X-Men, we're looking at the 700-850 mil range. It's also going to be dependent on quality and all that good stuff, but I just don't see X-Men joining the billion dollar club in the near future. Maybe if they get a bump from being in some large event movie, but I still have my doubts Marvel Studios can top what they're doing with IW/A4. It's going to be hard to replicate that level of success, and I do think Marvel hit lightning in a bottle multiple times to get it there. I am not sure though that a movie about like Secret War or Galactus coming to Earth will equal that success. But either way, if they join the billion dollar club, I don't think it will be possible until like 3rd movie or something. But I wouldn't see that as being in the cards until then.

 

[ADollarADay]

No because the FF's movies are older before CBMs were what they were today and no one saw Fan4stic.

That's mental gymnastics IMO, but I digress.

 

[Spider-Fan]

That's mental gymnastics IMO, but I digress.

How is that mental gynastics? FF and RotSS were 2005 and 2007. The CBM explosions we know now really happened with Avengers (in terms of BO grossing potential). At least for characters not named Spider-Man or Batman. I find it hard to judge box office potential on a series that didn't have a relevant entry since 2007. FOX basically buried Fan4stic, so judging a movie Disney will no doubt push hard is also faulty. But the X-Men have kept putting out films. Ones FOX was not actively burying. I see the X-Men situation as closer to Spider-Man in terms of growth of BO, and Homecoming currently sits as the 2nd highest grossing Spider-Man film, so his MCU debut was not a billion dollar enterprise and it earned right around what the series was earning prior to his MCU debut. That said, we'll see if FFH gets a bump. X-Men may be able to get there if it gets a bump, but it is going to be gradual IMO. If it gets there, I don't see it until like film 3.

 

[Detective Conan]

MCU Fantastic Four can easily make more than any Fox Fanastic Four film. That isn’t a hard ceiling to break, lol.

I think the first MCU FF will make around what the first Incredibles made(633 million). Though it’s hard for me to ever see a Fantastic Four film(even made by Marvel) coming anywhere close to a billion I also know crazier things have happened. Maybe not in the first film but perhaps down down the line?

Regardless of how much it ultimately ends up making, I just hope Marvel can make the FF popular again. Obviously, it’s never going to be Avengers level but I’d like the FF brand to be revitalized so they’re not viewed as complete jokes by the mainstream they are now.

I only hope Fox hasn’t damaged the brand too much.

 

[Iceman]

The mutants absolutely could join the billion dollar club. Just because the Fox movies have never made it past 700m doesn't mean Marvel's take won't ever cross it. We only have ever had one example of a cinematic X-Men franchise to compare and it's grown stale and never evolved with the times. If Marvel can make a Guardians of the Galaxy movie make over 800m at the box-office, they can do the same for the X-Men. Maybe not in the first movie but after the X-Men are firmly established In the MCU. By the second film, I could see the brand being stronger than it ever has been in the last 13 years.

That's how I see it too. One great and well budgeted film that shows that it's very different to what came before, obviously in new hands and also under the MCU umbrella, could have a top end in that ballpark. And regardless will massively boost the reputation of the franchise and make it seem almost like a new one in audience eyes. Spider-man doesn't look all that different in the 3 versions we've seen, but with the X-Men you can change half the characters and make the ones you do reuse look strikingly different and have much better looking powers (which hopefully work together much better too like we saw in the Titan scenes in IW). Differentiating will be very important once again.

 

[Iceman]

I think with X-Men, we're looking at the 700-850 mil range. It's also going to be dependent on quality and all that good stuff, but I just don't see X-Men joining the billion dollar club in the near future. Maybe if they get a bump from being in some large event movie, but I still have my doubts Marvel Studios can top what they're doing with IW/A4. It's going to be hard to replicate that level of success, and I do think Marvel hit lightning in a bottle multiple times to get it there. I am not sure though that a movie about like Secret War or Galactus coming to Earth will equal that success. But either way, if they join the billion dollar club, I don't think it will be possible until like 3rd movie or something. But I wouldn't see that as being in the cards until then.

DoFP has already made around $750m so there is surely room for growth. I thought that was a very good film so a very good MCU film along with MCU backing and links (so many cameo opportunities to build it up too), can do more than that 8 or so years later.

 

[Spider-Fan]

DoFP has already made around $750m so there is surely room for growth. I thought that was a very good film so a very good MCU film along with MCU backing and links (so many cameo opportunities to build it up too), can do more than that 8 or so years later.

Once again, I don't think it will just be as easy as "It's MCU now, so it is a sure fire billion dollars!" If that were the case, Spidey would have gotten over that hump with his movie, but it more or less performed like a well-performing Spider-Man movie. I am sure they will go all out and emphasize how the next X-Men film is different, but I see a similar result as DoFP. At least with its first outing or 2. They're going to have to do some brand building to grow it. My point is just slapping MCU on it will not instantly make it a billion dollar film. What I don't want to see is if the first MCU X-Men film makes under a billion dollars and people freak out like they were with Homecoming. It's great to make the billion dollar club, but it is not as easy as we like to think it is.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I would be surprised if we get an "X-Men" film any time soon.

What I suspect is Marvel will start introducing the concept of mutants and the characters in other Marvel films.

We'll get little tastes of them and we'll be left wanting more. And then, when the audience is begging for it, Marvel will give us a big event film that pulls all the characters together - similar to what they did with Avengers.

 

[Iceman]

Once again, I don't think it will just be as easy as "It's MCU now, so it is a sure fire billion dollars!" If that were the case, Spidey would have gotten over that hump with his movie, but it more or less performed like a well-performing Spider-Man movie. I am sure they will go all out and emphasize how the next X-Men film is different, but I see a similar result as DoFP. At least with its first outing or 2. They're going to have to do some brand building to grow it. My point is just slapping MCU on it will not instantly make it a billion dollar film. What I don't want to see is if the first MCU X-Men film makes under a billion dollars and people freak out like they were with Homecoming. It's great to make the billion dollar club, but it is not as easy as we like to think it is.

There is only so much you can change with iterations of Spidey, and in the suit he looks probably indistinguishable to many of the GA. With the X-Men you can change half the team completely, and as many of them haven't done much with their powers so far, there is opportunity to give a much bigger visual bang for buck with characters like Rogue and Iceman unrecognisable from their Fox version. Are there many people expecting a sure fire billion? I'm late to the conversation but I think over DoFP up to $1B is reasonable to expect. $750m is median territory for MCU films, which includes many solo character films and many old films which came out when the market was smaller. I'd consider that to be the baseline for a good MCU X-Men film.

 

[Iceman]

I would be surprised if we get an "X-Men" film any time soon.

What I suspect is Marvel will start introducing the concept of mutants and the characters in other Marvel films.

We'll get little tastes of them and we'll be left wanting more. And then, when the audience is begging for it, Marvel will give us a big event film that pulls all the characters together - similar to what they did with Avengers.

That's exactly how I want them to do it.

 

[Iceman]

Spider-Man's wasn't. Spider-Man: Homecoming did great, but it failed to even outgross Spider-Man 3. X-Men have had a bunch of films by this point. They're not new. We've basically had an X-Men movie like every 2-3 years since 2000. That ceiling won't be much higher.

The ceiling for new Spidey films didn't need to move up as much because the original films were record breakers that left a very wide audience very satisfied. The only reason to move it up at all would be inflation and growth in overseas markets. For X-Men that kind of audience fulfilment hasn't yet occurred and even after nearly 20 years many/most of the actual X-Men haven't been given the chance that Marvel seems to give to even lower tier characters. I think the ceiling is going to be significantly higher but to start with it might be slow till the X-Men get more and more entrenched in the MCU.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Once again, I don't think it will just be as easy as "It's MCU now, so it is a sure fire billion dollars!" If that were the case, Spidey would have gotten over that hump with his movie, but it more or less performed like a well-performing Spider-Man movie. I am sure they will go all out and emphasize how the next X-Men film is different, but I see a similar result as DoFP. At least with its first outing or 2. They're going to have to do some brand building to grow it. My point is just slapping MCU on it will not instantly make it a billion dollar film. What I don't want to see is if the first MCU X-Men film makes under a billion dollars and people freak out like they were with Homecoming. It's great to make the billion dollar club, but it is not as easy as we like to think it is.

Fact is that the X-Men are not as popular as The Avengers so to expect Avengers money right out of the gate is foolish. It isn't a new property like Black Panther either. Like you say, the X-Men are known and audiences have already formed opinions on them. Now could Marvel build up the audience over the course of 2-3 films so that they can gross a billion? Yes. But even if the movie is good, it isn't going to do it right away. The only way that happens is if they do something like Avengers vs. X-Men first.

Based on the evidence we have, "X-Men" isn't much of a draw at all. Wolverine and Deadpool are, but the two X-Men films without them really struggled at the box office. The difference between an X-Men film starring Wolverine and one without him has been extremely noticeable. Meanwhile we have at least five Avengers that are proven to be significant draws (Iron Man, Captain America, Black Panther, Thor, and Spider-Man) on their own.

 

[Darkprime]

EU will have their decision on the deal by October 19th.

European Antitrust Regulators Set Oct. 19 Deadline for Disney-Fox Deal Ruling

I see no reason to deny it beyond out of spite. Comcast is getting Sky by the looks of things. whch would have been the big roadblock in the EU.

 

[Marvel united]

According to Make Mine Marvel - Kevin Feige is a huge fan of the original 5 X-Men as teenagers. And he doesn't want Wolverine in the first movie
His live stream is on right now


Take it with a grain of salt. But going back to his old videos, this guy was right about Square Enix and Marvel making an Avengers game before it was announced

 

[Iceman]

Oh right, interesting!

 

[Darkprime]

My guess is the EU ruling will decide if Disney does indeed drop sky or.not.

 

[Marvel united]

Really like what he had to say about the F4. Marvel really wants to prioritize the F4 and make sure they got the family dynamic right. Doom is something they are discussing that should be built up.

They could become the heart of the MCU going forward

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I see no reason to deny it beyond out of spite. Comcast is getting Sky by the looks of things. whch would have been the big roadblock in the EU.

My guess is the EU ruling will decide if Disney does indeed drop sky or.not.

I was thinking about Sky as a reason EU might push this deal through sooner rather than later. The EU can't really rule on the Disney/Fox deal with the context of Sky at the moment because Sky is still an open issue.

So I'm thinking they go ahead and approve the Disney/Fox deal and then, when Sky comes up for consideration, they consider that on its own merits and with the context that Disney will own Fox and their Sky shares.

I mean they can't really say: "We don't like the idea of a Disney buyout of Fox because we don't want Disney owning Sky." When Disney doesn't own Sky.

The only logical way to handle Sky would seem to be to take it one step at a time.

 

[Darkprime]

And even if they do open a four month investigation that still lines up with the first half of 2019 closure. The first half of 2019 estimation seems like its a very safe estimation that included potential roadblock like a delay in the EU ruling. End of 2018 is looking quite likely.

 

[Detective Conan]

If that report is true, I gotta hand it to Feige he takes chances. If Marvel Studios can make the first MCU X-Men out-gross all the Fox-Men movies that have come before without having the property’s most popular character then I would no longer have any question on whether Marvel could pull off the impossible. They already made a movie with a talking racooon be one of the biggest cashcows in history. Can they make the highest grossing X-film without the dark-haired, clawed mutant himself?

The original five X-Men consists of Cyclops, Jean Grey(who went with the superhero name ‘Marvel Girl’ similar to Sue Storm’s ‘Invisible Girl’ moniker from the FF) Iceman, Beast, Angel, and last but not least Professor Xavier. It would be interesting to see an X-flick that takes the team back to its roots with the exact same roster that they debuted with in 1963 but I just don’t see Feige making a proper X-Men film without Storm. There’s no way Marvel Studios is going to get away with making a movie with five lily white people with no POC representation at all especially after the monumental success of BP.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If that report is true, I gotta hand it to Feige he takes chances. If Marvel Studios can make the first MCU X-Men out-gross all the Fox-Men movies that have come before without having the property’s most popular character then I would no longer have any question on whether Marvel could pull off the impossible. They already made a movie with a talking racooon be one of the biggest cashcows in history. Can they make the highest grossing X-film without the dark-haired, clawed mutant himself?

The original five X-Men consists of Cyclops, Jean Grey(who went with the superhero name ‘Marvel Girl’ similar to Sue Storm’s ‘Invisible Girl’ moniker from the FF) Iceman, Beast, Angel, and last but not least Professor Xavier. It would be interesting to see an X-flick that takes the team back to its roots with the exact same roster that they debuted with in 1963 but I just don’t see Feige making a proper X-Men film without Storm. There’s no way Marvel Studios is going to get away with making a movie with five lily white people with no POC representation at all especially after the monumental success of BP.

I'd like to see an old-school beast at least for a few films. Not only would it be cool to see that version, but that would help set the character apart from the Fox version.

I kind of wonder what casual observers even think of Beast as he was portrayed in the Fox films. He never really did much in the way of acrobatics, and many viewers probably think his only mutation is cosmetic.

 

[Detective Conan]

I thought The Last Stand had a spot-on Beast. Kelsey Grammer was amazing casting. One of the few good things about The Last Stand by far.