The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread II

[Leenie]

I still haven't seen/heard much hype from the general audience, so I'm not entirely sure it will make Avengers money on opening weekend (anything's possible though).

Based on the early, glowing raves so far though, I could see word of mouth passing along and the movie making Avengers money for domestic total. I'm sure this movie is going to have some fierce legs.

 

[db85usa]

Apologize if this has been posted:

The Dark Knight Rises Opening Could Top $200 Million

www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/09/dark-knight-rises-opening-weekend_n_1660254.html

 

[db85usa]

I still haven't seen/heard much hype from the general audience, so I'm not entirely sure it will make Avengers money on opening weekend (anything's possible though).

Based on the early, glowing raves so far though, I could see word of mouth passing along and the movie making Avengers money for domestic total. I'm sure this movie is going to have some fierce legs.

Reviews/WOM will increase the totals for Rises. Heck, the hype meter went up high once we got reviews on TDK and Ledger's performance being Oscar worthy. Now Rises is receiving tears, standing ovations and discussion for a Best Picture Nomination at the Oscars?

Rises is hitting people on so many different levels of emotion it's ridiculous. That IS the perfect movie.

The GA will catch that pretty quickly and want to see what the fuss is all about.

 

[Mac_Hine]

That would be incredible if it does 200mil OW!

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I'm just not sure it can surpass $200 million OW due to no 3D and the fact that the darkness of the subject matter could turn off parents from bringing their children. The Avengers was dark enough for adults but light enough for kids to go.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I'm just not sure it can surpass $200 million OW due to no 3D and the fact that the darkness of the subject matter could turn off parents from bringing their children. The Avengers was dark enough for adults but light enough for kids to go.

3D is the bigger issue. Avengers wouldn't have made it to $200m without a $25m boost from 3D, and it is the biggest opening weekend ticket seller of all time at roughly 22.5 million tickets (compared to 22m for TDK and SM3). TDKR would need around 2.5m more tickets sold than Avengers to reach $200m for the weekend. That is a huge amount of extra demand needed to reach the $200m milestone. If the biggest ticket seller ever was still around $20m short without 3D, then it's simply a case of the marketplace not being ready for a $200m opener in 2D. More ticket price inflation is needed for this milestone to happen.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

3D is the bigger issue. Avengers wouldn't have made it to $200m without a $25m boost from 3D, and it is the biggest opening weekend ticket seller of all time at roughly 22.5 million tickets (compared to 22m for TDK and SM3). TDKR would need around 2.5m more tickets sold than Avengers to reach $200m for the weekend. That is a huge amount of extra demand needed to reach the $200m milestone. If the biggest ticket seller ever was still around $20m short without 3D, then it's simply a case of the marketplace not being ready for a $200m opener in 2D. More ticket price inflation is needed for this milestone to happen.

I can't remember who did the calculations, but I think they said TDKR would need to do well over 23 million tickets to tie or break The Avengers' record. That seems a little too much to do over OW so getting 22 million would be just fine to meet expectations.

 

[db85usa]

I realistically don't see it breaking the record but I don't doubt it'll make something in the neighborhood of $185m to $190m. Still, I think it all depends on opening day. If it can gross $85m or even break the record with $92m or more then with great reviews/WOM to go along with it, a small Saturday drop would occur (I'm thinking anywhere from 12%-30%,) then we might see TA record be broken. You just never know anymore.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I can't remember who did the calculations, but I think they said TDKR would need to do well over 23 million tickets to tie or break The Avengers' record. That seems a little too much to do over OW so getting 22 million would be just fine to meet expectations.

I don't think it's a million ahead of SM3 and TDK's admissions. At most I come up with 700,000.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I realistically don't see it breaking the record but I don't doubt it'll make something in the neighborhood of $185m to $190m. Still, I think it all depends on opening day. If it can gross $85m or even break the record with $92m or more then with great reviews/WOM to go along with it, a small Saturday drop would occur (I'm thinking anywhere from 12%-30%,) then we might see TA record be broken. You just never know anymore.

I don't know what kind of legs this movie will have on OW so it's tough for me as well to gauge how it'll do. I do think that, with this being a summer movie and people being off more during the summer, it could set some weekday and domestic records that TA didn't.

 

[db85usa]

I don't know what kind of legs this movie will have on OW so it's tough for me as well to gauge how it'll do. I do think that, with this being a summer movie and people being off more during the summer, it could set some weekday and domestic records that TA didn't.

It would be pretty cool if Rises breaks the single day record but fails to break OW yet has the same legs as TDK and ends up in third place behind Titanic past TA, lol.

Then TDKR will have been the real box office king of 2012.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't think 200 m is physically possible without:

A) a record amount of theaters that mostly sell out all weekend

B) 3D prices

 

[Tony Stark]

I think it's a logistical problems. Avengers getting to 207M you started to see that theaters were beginning to not be able to handle the amount of business due to credit card machine problems and late ticket buyers.

I think some of these records are going to stand for a while simply because I don't see the theaters in a rush to add a bunch of more screens as that creates too many problems for them during non peak times of the year.

Box office.com is projecting 190 which is a huge number with non 3D. Maybe it might get past that but to get to 200M, I'm not sure.

 

[Sikri06]

I will adjust my prediction with 10 m. and say that it will make 190 OW.

Edit: Apparantly that's the same as boxoffice.com, I don't wanna say the same as them, so I will say 195 m. even though it is very optimistic.

 

[Tony Stark]

I realistically don't see it breaking the record but I don't doubt it'll make something in the neighborhood of $185m to $190m. Still, I think it all depends on opening day. If it can gross $85m or even break the record with $92m or more then with great reviews/WOM to go along with it, a small Saturday drop would occur (I'm thinking anywhere from 12%-30%,) then we might see TA record be broken. You just never know anymore.

The Saturday drop will be at least 30% if not 50% like Potter 7. Movies that have huge midnights have larger Saturday drops. Doesn't mean it's getting bad WOM, it just means that there's only (x) amount of people that are going to see it opening weekend. The question is weather they all go on Friday or wait until Saturday.

 

[Boom]

Eh. I'm gonna stick with my $185-$190 million opening weekend prediction.

 

[db85usa]

The Saturday drop will be at least 30% if not 50% like Potter 7. Movies that have huge midnights have larger Saturday drops. Doesn't mean it's getting bad WOM, it just means that there's only (x) amount of people that are going to see it opening weekend. The question is weather they all go on Friday or wait until Saturday.

TDK had a 29.1% drop doesn't mean that'll happen again which is why I'm thinking anywhere from 10%-30%. This is the movie of the summer and there is no more from Nolan's Batman after this and a lot of people don't know how 'the legend ends' if we see a 90%-99% fresh tomatometer, and it being the last film, I'd say there's a good chance of a small drop from Friday-Saturday.

 

[Tony Stark]

TDK had a 29.1% drop doesn't mean that'll happen again which is why I'm thinking anywhere from 10%-30%. This is the movie of the summer and there is no more from Nolan's Batman after this and a lot of people don't know how 'the legend ends' if we see a 90%-99% fresh tomatometer, and it being the last film, I'd say there's a good chance of a small drop from Friday-Saturday.

ratings really have nothing to do with it. All the Fri-Sat drop indicates is how many people go to see the movie opening day vs waiting a day or two. it would mean a higher Saturday drop but a lower Sunday drop. Make sense?

Chances are the drop will be higher than 30% not lower. Here's why let's just say it brakes the single day record with 100M (which I think is a possibility), well if you run TDK's % for Sat and Sunday, that would mean it would make 70M on Saturday and 64M on Sunday, that would be an astronomical 234M. However if you run Harry Potter's % (with a 53% drop on Saturday) you get 185M. Now which is more likely for a non 3D film? Adding to the fact that TDK adjusted for inflation would be 174M.

 

[Iceman]

$200m likely or not would look so good. The top 2 weekends ever, both comic films & more than $30m clear of the next pretender.

 

[regwec]

The top 2 weekends ever, both comic films & more than $30m clear of the next pretender.

I obviously love comics and that is why I have been here for over seven years, but doesn't that thought make you feel a tiny bit depressed?

 

[Tony Stark]

$200m likely or not would look so good. The top 2 weekends ever, both comic films & more than $30m clear of the next pretender.

Yeah I agree, and I think it will force WB to get their act together on some of the other DC properties, now that this is ending.

 

[Iceman]

I obviously love comics and that is why I have been here for over seven years, but doesn't that thought make you feel a tiny bit depressed?

Part of it is just that cinemas now have the capacity (& pricing structure) to make $200m which was impossible in the not too distant past. Other than that no, I'd love to see Nolan do it, I'd love to see Batman do it & I loved seeing Avengers doing it! There may be other deserving cases but the above mentioned are some of my favourite properties and whatever else it may mean, I'm happy when stuff I like does (exceptionally) well.

Yeah I agree, and I think it will force WB to get their act together on some of the other DC properties, now that this is ending.

It shows the rewards when you get it right.

Yeah, I hope so.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yeah I agree, and I think it will force WB to get their act together on some of the other DC properties, now that this is ending.

I freaking hope so. Superman is off to a good start but I demand Flash and Wonder Woman... and done with justice!

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think TDKR opening to or near 200m without 3d ticket prices would have to be one of the most momentous moments in box office history.

 

[db85usa]

ratings really have nothing to do with it. All the Fri-Sat drop indicates is how many people go to see the movie opening day vs waiting a day or two. it would mean a higher Saturday drop but a lower Sunday drop. Make sense?

Chances are the drop will be higher than 30% not lower. Here's why let's just say it brakes the single day record with 100M (which I think is a possibility), well if you run TDK's % for Sat and Sunday, that would mean it would make 70M on Saturday and 64M on Sunday, that would be an astronomical 234M. However if you run Harry Potter's % (with a 53% drop on Saturday) you get 185M. Now which is more likely for a non 3D film? Adding to the fact that TDK adjusted for inflation would be 174M.

What data/source are you basing this off of? I'm strictly looking at Nolan's record which speaks for itself. His films have proven to do solid from Friday to Saturday. In fact, more than half of his films have an increase from Fri to Sat, and if there is a drop its very minor. So, if TDK grosses $100+ million Friday, I'll take a 30% drop. But a 50%? You're crazy!!!

NO WAY TDKR drops 50% on its SECOND day. This isn't HP anymore. Do I think TDKR will gross $200+ Million? I'm not sure. But I do know that its really hard to predict given that its tracking on or around Avengers #'s.