The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread III

[Superhero 101]

Bane Will Break The Box Office

 

[buff17]

I think we will know when we get the opening day numbers if this breaks the all-time record. I think $88m opening day gives it a shot, anything above $90m I think will clinch it.

I stand behind my prediction of $210m.

I can't see it doing more than $65m on Saturday, although do to demand I say this has a very small drop on Sunday.

 

[Tony Stark]

Box office mojo is projecting 214 million mostly based off the average percentage jump of threequels in other popular series.

I'd be very surprised if this film even hits 200 million which would be an insane accomplishment (I'm still amazed by the Avengers doing it).


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3491&p=.htm


edit: I see now that this has been posted.


Also, note, this film is expected to get 30 million at least from midnight showings, where as avengers had 18 million.

Thats a significant boost and might have a bearing on the 200 million dollar question.

It's more a question now is it going to follow the "threequel" jump or will it follow the standard increase in attendance jump. There hasn't been a 20% jump in attendance from the previous record holder since Spider-man 3. They are banking on the fact that in the age of digital projection they can add screens on demand.

Avengers did only get 18M from midnights, but it had a much higher weekend multiplier than TDK did, because it was May. At minimum this film will have a 30% drop on Saturday. The midnight number will greatly depend on what the Friday day number is.

TDK's midnight was 18.5M or something like that, which probably translates to 23/24M with inflation, so with the audience bump, will that take away from Saturday or Sunday?

One thing is for sure, most everyone is in agreement that the multiplier will not be as high for this movie, so there's a good chance it could break the record and end up with a lower second week haul. If it gets in the 180-190 range the drop will be around 50%, but if it does break the record, the drop will likely be 60% or higher.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think we will know when we get the opening day numbers if this breaks the all-time record. I think $88m opening day gives it a shot, anything above $90m I think will clinch it.

I stand behind my prediction of $210m.

I can't see it doing more than $65m on Saturday, although do to demand I say this has a very small drop on Sunday.

If it's close they won't report it breaking the record until the actuals come in. If it's 88 or 90, it will win the attendance record, but they won't report until Monday if it broke the record.

Remember Disney reported 200M for the weekend, because they were sure they'd broken 200M. they basically reported the low side margin of error.

 

[db85usa]

It's more a question now is it going to follow the "threequel" jump or will it follow the standard increase in attendance jump. There hasn't been a 20% jump in attendance from the previous record holder since Spider-man 3. They are banking on the fact that in the age of digital projection they can add screens on demand.

Avengers did only get 18M from midnights, but it had a much higher weekend multiplier than TDK did, because it was May. At minimum this film will have a 30% drop on Saturday. The midnight number will greatly depend on what the Friday day number is.

TDK's midnight was 18.5M or something like that, which probably translates to 23/24M with inflation, so with the audience bump, will that take away from Saturday or Sunday?

One thing is for sure, most everyone is in agreement that the multiplier will not be as high for this movie, so there's a good chance it could break the record and end up with a lower second week haul. If it gets in the 180-190 range the drop will be around 50%, but if it does break the record, the drop will likely be 60% or higher.

Don't under estimate Teh Goddamn Batman

t:

 

[db85usa]

I think we will know when we get the opening day numbers if this breaks the all-time record. I think $88m opening day gives it a shot, anything above $90m I think will clinch it.

I stand behind my prediction of $210m.

I can't see it doing more than $65m on Saturday, although do to demand I say this has a very small drop on Sunday.

Adjusted for inflation, TDK's opening day would have been roughly $84 million. You don't think with 'Rises' being the Batman finale, and followup to one of the best comic book movies in modern cinema will be able to surpass its predecessor?

I'm thinking $94-$115 million single/opening day for Friday.

 

[jmc]

It's kinda amazing we're discussing the possibility of a film scoring a 100m+ opening day. Kinda crazy considering some films don't make that much in their entire cinema run.

 

[Dragon_316ca]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/legend-ends-imax-july-20-222100794.html

LOS ANGELES , July 19, 2012 /CNW/ - IMAX Corporation (NYSE:IMAX; TSX:IMX) and Warner Bros. Pictures today announced that The Dark Knight Rises, the highly anticipated third film of the critically acclaimed trilogy, will be released in the immersive IMAX format in at least 485 IMAX® theatres worldwide, 396 of which will play day-and-date on July 20 . Director Christopher Nolan's epic conclusion will be released in a record 332 IMAX theatres domestically and 153 internationally, 64 of which will open this weekend. Additional playdates and territories, including China , are pending and will be added upon confirmation.
......
......
Of the 485 IMAX theatres worldwide presenting The Dark Knight Rises, 103 will present the film in IMAX 70-millimeter film.

http://www.virtual-strategy.com/201...-avengers-advance-ticket-sales-thousands-sold

Fandango reports that "The Dark Knight Rises," on the eve of its opening weekend, is outpacing the summer blockbuster "The Avengers" in ticket sales at the same point in the sales cycle. The final chapter of Christopher Nolan's Batman trilogy has sold out on Fandango more than 2,000 showtimes nationwide and it's currently on track to become one of Fandango's top-selling movies of all time.

"Thursday's ticket sales are incredibly strong, as film fans are flocking to Fandango to guarantee their seats for the film's opening weekend," says Rick Butler, Executive Vice President and General Manager of Fandango. "The IMAX showtimes are particular fast-sellers, as almost every one of our Thursday midnight IMAX showtimes have been sold out. The good news is that theater owners are continually posting new showtimes on Fandango to meet the fan demand, so tickets are still available."

"The Dark Knight Rises" currently accounts for 91% of daily ticket sales, selling out coast-to-coast from big cities like New York and Los Angeles, to smaller towns like Sunrise, Florida to Puyallup, Washington. The film also promises to be one of Fandango's all-time top mobile ticket-sellers, with nearly 30% of the site's fans on Thursday using Fandango's mobile site and apps to buy their tickets in advance.
​

 

[Reek]

It's kinda amazing we're discussing the possibility of a film scoring a 100m+ opening day. Kinda crazy considering some films don't make that much in their entire cinema run.

seriously 100m+ opening freaking day... i wonder how much the final domestic total will be...

 

[Reek]

by the way, I saw someone of facebook say... '100 million opening day, 120 saturday, 90 on sunday.'

 

[jmc]

seriously 100m+ opening freaking day... i wonder how much the final domestic total will be...

I'm still not convinced it'll hit $200m opening though, but if it happens it'll be extremely impressive, infact it'll be a big win for 2D films.

 

[Pond]

Its a better triumph for good cinema. Both Avengers and TDKR are quality cinema with a hughe autorship stamp on them. The idea that the two summer movies tentpole moneymaker of this year are that kind of movies instead of the usual drivel that gets that piece is good for cinema; not sure about the consecuences, but its good.

 

[BaleISBatman4ev]

Anyone who doesnt think this will break Avengers record is just being cautiously pessimistic... One simply needs to step outside their local theater and look at lines forming around blocks ALA star wars circa 1977... this is gonna be HUUUUGGGGGGEEEEEE.

A lot of theaters are ONLY playing TDKR on every screen with around the clock showtimes.

233+ mil opening weekend.

 

[©KAW]

I'm sticking with my estimate 291M weekend take.

 

[Bruce Malone]

A few hours to go!

Yes a lot of ppl are being cautious but like i've said before this feels like the few days before the avengers release when people were downplaying expectations. Except this actually feel like twice as big.

 

[Weadazoid]

by the way, I saw someone of facebook say... '100 million opening day, 120 saturday, 90 on sunday.'

yeah I know it's the summer


so


I figure in all honesty with a huge Midnight and monster Friday take


it hits like 105 for Friday and everyone on here goes NUTS



then it drops kinda hard down to

65 on Saturday

so figure antoher 30 or so on Sunday


Threshold right around 200 million. This thing is not gonna run like the Avengers

with a big friday then an even bigger Saturdar and solid Sunday



Fanatics will push Fridays number through the roof

 

[Anita18]

Anyone who doesnt think this will break Avengers record is just being cautiously pessimistic... One simply needs to step outside their local theater and look at lines forming around blocks ALA star wars circa 1977... this is gonna be HUUUUGGGGGGEEEEEE.

A lot of theaters are ONLY playing TDKR on every screen with around the clock showtimes.

233+ mil opening weekend.

Seems to depend on the area. NYC and LA are nuts, while I saw on World of KJ or BO.com that Florida is apparently pretty damn empty.

 

[Iceman]

Looking pretty good for DKR right now!

 

[Dragon_316ca]

http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/dar...-release-1-at-australia-box-office-with-3-5m/

Warner Bros. Pictures’ and Legendary Pictures’ The Dark Knight Rises rode into Australia’s cinemas and IMAX, grossing in excess of $3.5M in its first day on screens, making it the #1 movie in the country.

 

[Salieri]

I am not concerned about TDKR domestic wise because it will pass $500m easily. My main wish is for a Batman movie to perform on par with most blockbuster movies in international markets and make MORE outside the US. TDKR must break this rule this time and make 55-65% of its money internationally to have a chance of reaching TA's almost $1.5B worldwide.

I predict 48D/52I % or very close to that for TDKR with China, Russia, Brazil, Mexico being key new markets that will end Batman's run of making less than 50% share of the total gross internationally.

As for OW, $35m midnight, $97m opening day, $53m Sat., $46m Sun.= $196m
Wkdays, ~$75m = ~$270m opening week.
2nd Wend, $88m = $358m in 10 days.

What i'm excited about though is TDKR's 2nd weekend in the foreign markets. Unlike TA's 15% drop, TDKR will expand in more markets and have probably 15% increase instead which will propel it closer to the $1B club. But China/Middle east will take it closer to the 1.4B of TA and TDKR won't open in those two markets till mid/end of August.

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

 

[Iceman]

So we could be looking at 5 out of 7 Batman films breaking the opening weekend record at time of release!

 

[DarthAlani]

No other franchise can claim that.

 

[rashad]

Glad it's getting a China release this time unlike TDK.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

I'll be adding my $13 in 4 hours, and Friday afternoon I'll be adding another $16 for IMAX...

That should add to TDKR's BO total

 

[Salieri]

http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/dar...records-scalpers-brinks-trucks-than-avengers/

Updated now:

The Dark Knight Rises is tearing up the box office at midnight. It should pass Marvel’s The Avengers‘ $18.7M as the largest superhero midnight show of all time.