The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread III

[Liam_H]

If $75 million turns out to be true then the shooting did have an impact. Excluding midnights TDKR is gonna bring in a lower figure than TDK did on opening day.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Humm...so this movie is doing better than the previous. What about the avengers?

TA clocked in a little over 80 mil for it's initial Friday.

 

[rogue trooper]

If $75 million turns out to be true then the shooting did have an impact. Excluding midnights TDKR is gonna bring in a lower figure than TDK did on opening day.

How's that? TDK made $67, TDKR $75.

 

[Bruce Malone]

If $75 million turns out to be true then the shooting did have an impact. Excluding midnights TDKR is gonna bring in a lower figure than TDK did on opening day.

The fact many more people saw the film at midnight this could be the reason why less than TDK may be seeing it on friday night.

In the past people would have waited for friday night now a big chuck are going ahead and seeing it midnite thrusday.

 

[Liam_H]

How's that? TDK made $67, TDKR $75.

Excluding midnights, TDK made around $18 million so thats $49 million vs $45 million.

 

[Silver Surfer]

How's that? TDK made $67, TDKR $75.

He said excluding Thursday's midnight screening, which hauled in about 30 mil of the overall 75 mil estimate.

 

[Liam_H]

The fact many more people saw the film at midnight this could be the reason why less than TDK may be seeing it on friday night.

In the past people would have waited for friday night now a big chuck are going ahead and seeing it midnite thrusday.

Having such a huge portion of opening day come from midnights is never a good sign for WOM or legs. We still have the finally tally to come but if its holds it's not a good sign.

 

[db85usa]

TA clocked in a little over 80 mil for it's initial Friday.

Link? Source? There's not going to be an official release of OW gross from WB so we have to rely on rival companies and box office analysts which I'm hearing high 80's.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Link? Source? There's not going to be an official release of OW gross from WB so we have to rely on rival companies and box office analysts which I'm hearing high 80's.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=avengers11.htm

 

[Bruce Malone]

Having such a huge portion of opening day come from midnights is never a good sign for WOM or legs. We still have the finally tally to come but if its holds it's not a good sign.

Were in uncharted territory here with batman and it's midnight opening. No comic film has come close so it's hard to tell where it will go from here.

I definitely do not see a HP like drop off though i still think 170m is the low end scale of prediction.

 

[Tony Stark]

The shooting may well have had an impact but this thing was never going to get the OW record. There was alot of hype to try and drive up buisness but the truth is there are only so many seats, so many theaters, so many screens.

Alot of us were trying to explain since Avengers open that it would be very hard to increase the attendance to the amount to cover the difference of the 3D boost. Unfortunately people listened to hype over reason, including alot of the box office sites.

Now I think the shootings will have a roll, but how much? I don't think anyone will be able to calculate, but if someone says this would have broken all the records if not for the shootings, that's not true at all, it was always going to be an uphill battle.

Personally I am rooting for this thing to make all it can before the end of the weekend. I live in the city where this horrible tragedy occured, and I'm guessing the people that went to that movie went there because they care about this franchise and they care about these characters, and one persons tragic choice to resort to cold blooded murder shouldn't change that for them or for us. Now obviously I could care less about the box office compare to the innocent lives of those people. But I do hate the fact that the people involved in making this film will forever be tied to this tragic event.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

The world doesn´t stop. Let´s talk about money:

1.5 billion worldwide?

No offense, but hell no. Based on this:
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/
I'm betting:
OW: $189M
Domestic: $520M
Worldwide: $1.13B

 

[Tony Stark]

No offense, but hell no. Based on this:
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/
I'm betting:
OW: $189M
Domestic: $520M
Worldwide: $1.13B

I think that woulld be "best case" scenario for this weekend. If the number ends up being 75, if it follows TDK's multiplier it would be 177M. My guess is that with the 30M midnight compared to 75, it will be a lower multiplier, but I hope it's higher.

 

[db85usa]

I think that woulld be "best case" scenario for this weekend. If the number ends up being 75, if it follows TDK's multiplier it would be 177M. My guess is that with the 30M midnight compared to 75, it will be a lower multiplier, but I hope it's higher.

Though you and I have butted heads about this which I apologize about, I'm at $175 mil OW right now. Yeah, it will have a bigger OW than TDK but even that takes $174 Mil when adjusted so its not like it will beat its predecessor by much.

As for Fridays gross, tough to tell right now. Hearing different stories. $30 mil in advanced tickets, others saying $35 mil even though $30.6 mil is the currently the estimate. I'm hearing high 80's to low 90's from a few trusted sources for Friday's gross altogether. I think (and please no one blast me for this...) Saturdays gross could be big or have a very minor drop because of what happened today.

 

[DorneyDave]

I think Saturday is going to be huge for this film. Just my hunch. But word of mouth is really good and people have planned their weekends around it.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I think that woulld be "best case" scenario for this weekend. If the number ends up being 75, if it follows TDK's multiplier it would be 177M. My guess is that with the 30M midnight compared to 75, it will be a lower multiplier, but I hope it's higher.

Though you and I have butted heads about this which I apologize about, I'm at $175 mil OW right now. Yeah, it will have a bigger OW than TDK but even that takes $174 Mil when adjusted so its not like it will beat its predecessor by much.

As for Fridays gross, tough to tell right now. Hearing different stories. $30 mil in advanced tickets, others saying $35 mil even though $30.6 mil is the currently the estimate. I'm hearing high 80's to low 90's from a few trusted sources for Friday's gross altogether. I think (and please no one blast me for this...) Saturdays gross could be big or have a very minor drop because of what happened today.

But what about my Domestic and Worldwide predictions? I don't see this doing better than TDK domestically, even if I did before; but the international numbers should help it out a bit.

 

[db85usa]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=avengers11.htm

I knew that. I misread your post, lol. Getting 2 hours of sleep before sitting in a movie theater for 13 and a half hours and getting 3 hours of sleep afterwards doesn't help

 

[db85usa]

But what about my Domestic and Worldwide predictions? I don't see this doing better than TDK domestically, even if I did before; but the international numbers should help it out a bit.

Due to the longer run time and the reviews no where near what we expected, I don't see 'Rises' having legs like TDK. I mean, after seeing the trilogy, TDK was a one of a kind masterpiece. I honestly don't believe this will cross the $1 Billion mark.

Domestic: $440 Million
Foreign: $475 Million

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Due to the longer run time and the reviews no where near what we expected, I don't see 'Rises' having legs like TDK. I mean, after seeing the trilogy, TDK was a one of a kind masterpiece. I honestly don't believe this will cross the $1 Billion mark.

Domestic: $440 Million
Foreign: $475 Million

That would make this one of the biggest box office disappointments in history, worse than John Carter...

 

[Tony Stark]

That would make this one of the biggest box office disappointments in history, worse than John Carter...

No way. It might be a disappointment, but not of John Carter magnitude. That's still nearly a billion WW.

They spent 250M making John Carter, which is on order with films like Avengers, and it had a 30M dollar opening weekend!

DKR probably had a budget of just over 200M, and it's going to make up most of that on opening weekend.

John Carter will be known as one of the largest box office flops in cinema history. They'll be talking about this in the same breath as Heaven's Gate.

 

[Tony Stark]

Though you and I have butted heads about this which I apologize about, I'm at $175 mil OW right now. Yeah, it will have a bigger OW than TDK but even that takes $174 Mil when adjusted so its not like it will beat its predecessor by much.

As for Fridays gross, tough to tell right now. Hearing different stories. $30 mil in advanced tickets, others saying $35 mil even though $30.6 mil is the currently the estimate. I'm hearing high 80's to low 90's from a few trusted sources for Friday's gross altogether. I think (and please no one blast me for this...) Saturdays gross could be big or have a very minor drop because of what happened today.

No hard feelings, mate! Peace!

 

[db85usa]

They're actually seriously considering pulling the film from theaters still.

Could this be the first time a movie opens, gets pulled and then re-released? What if Nolan does a recut of 'Rises'?

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

No way. It might be a disappointment, but not of John Carter magnitude. That's still nearly a billion WW.

They spent 250M making John Carter, which is on order with films like Avengers, and it had a 30M dollar opening weekend!

DKR probably had a budget of just over 200M, and it's going to make up most of that on opening weekend.

John Carter will be known as one of the largest box office flops in cinema history. They'll be talking about this in the same breath as Heaven's Gate.

Not in terms of revenue, in terms of expectations.

 

[miggizle85]

People are clearly scared tonight. There is no doubt about it. I just got out of the theater and not only was it not packed (which it would be for any big premier let alone "THe Dark Knight Rises"), but the people that were there were all silent and somber. It's like people felt guilty that they were at a theater watching a movie on a day of such horrific tragedy involing a movie theater. What a shame. In addition to Terrible and tragic loss of life in Aurora there seems to be a spirit missing in the community that normally accompanies a big event like this. It's like.... imagine the Super Bowl is playing, and yet everyone just sitting around in silence. That's what it felt like. Thanks alot you stupid moron. Way to ruin the lives of many families in Aurora and also dampen the spirits of a nation. I hope it was worth it, you prick.

 

[Bruce Malone]

If TDKR debuts to 175m or so there is no reason to expect the film do overall any less that what TDK did.

Bad WOM would mean a big drop off from friday to saturday and sunday anything 170m and above would dis spell any notion about drop-offs or negative wom.