The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread III

[Sikri06]

TDK is very different because of Ledger. Everytime the Joker came on screen people were excited to see what he was gonna do next, he was making you laugh and scared at the same time.

Right now I do not see this movie having the same legs as TDK or even a 3.0 weekend multiplier.

I can't see why it wouldn't get that multiplier. The WOM is strong among the general audience everywhere I look and even though the OW will be hurt by the surrounding events, these events will not keep overshadowing it for its entire run. If anything the somewhat low OW should give it a bigger chance for a strong multiplier, when Colorado-massacre fades from the news.

 

[Excel]

Very much so. Makes me sad because this weekend was shaping up to be close to a national holiday, for all intents and purposes. A joyous occasion that has really been taken down and overshadowed by this tragedy.

yep. really hurting it at the box office.

 

[Art Damage]

yep. really hurting it at the box office.

That's not true and there's really no way of knowing that.

 

[The Shape]

That's not true and there's really no way of knowing that.

Pretty sure it's valid to make that assumption. It'd be one thing if this shooting took place on Monday. The OW wouldn't have been phased, less people may have been hurt, etc.

However, this was at a sold out midnight showing within the first HOUR of the film's release. The whole country woke up on Friday morning to news of the 'Dark Knight Massacre'. The 24-7 news coverage hasn't stopped since then and won't stop for the next week. Bad press is bad press, dude.

 

[Liam_H]

The thing is we will never know. Ledger's death giving TDK a boost and this shooting keeping people away can never really be quantified.

 

[Reek]

So its expecting $170 OW now? Oh well. I think it would be quite nice is marvel/dc/wb/disney got together and did something nice for these families..

 

[Tony Stark]

People would not be nearly as depressed at these results had the box office sites been more realistic in their predictions. 200M was really pushing it, but when BOM said 215M that was all hype. I can understand people getting caught up in the hype, but I said for months people needed to keep their expectations in check.

No doubt the shootings are having an effect, but if it ends up at 170M, I'd say it's actually doing very well in wake of the shootings. The shootings had no effect on the midnight shows because no one knew about it, and 30M was way too low to break the record. At a minimum it had to have beat Potter's midnight.

I had midnight pegged at 35 as I was looking at it in comparison to the Twilight films. Alot of people predicting 100M opening day were calling for a 50M midnight, which was just pure hype, but alot of the reputable box office reporting sites went with the hype. Now of course they couldn't possibly have guessed what would have happened in the next 24 hrs, but I suspect even if nothing had happened, the weekend record was still pretty safe.

Alot of us were pointing out that with Avengers most of the theater chains were operating at or near capacity. AMC's credit card system was brought to a screeching halt, and we really saw for the first time since the mid 90's before the building of alot of the mega screen theaters, that we were reaching the tipping point.

Again, for DKR to have made 200M it needed a 20% boost in attendance. A boost so big it hasn't happened from a previous attendane record holder since Spider-man 1 increased 22% over Harry Potter 1.

 

[Anita18]

That's an exaggeration. 170m for the weekend would be great especially with all this commotion going on.

I don't see how ppl can look at 170m in a negative light. Unless there are HP like drop offs I see 500m as well.

Of course it's not bad. But we will never know what it would have done otherwise.

 

[SLYspyder]

Here's the thing if the movie ends up with 190m+ we could legitimately say that it did indeed have a chance to break the OW record but fell short perhaps due to events.

If it's 170m+ then it never really had a chance anyways. I'm actually amazed that a movie as dark and heavy as TDKR has the ability to make as much money as it does. The same goes for TDK.

The Avengers was almost lab made to be an attract all audience bring the whole family film. The Nolan bat films are very different and it's a testament to how good they are that people still flock to them.

Ding ding ding!! I don't think people realize just how different the circumstances was with TDK. It was the Joker, it was Heath Ledger, it was his death, it was an Oscar worthy performance.

If anything, I think the tragedy publicized TDKR more, but not to the extent of Ledger's death.

All the unrealistic predictions for OW despite knowing TDKR was NOT in 3D had me questioning myself and then to top it all of, BOM had the insane $215M OW? I couldn't believe my eyes.

The shooting had a $10M tops effect on the BO, IMO.

 

[db85usa]

I have heard that by tomorrow, TDKR will unofficially become the second highest opening weekend box office gross of all time with an (est) $180 million.

I don't see it making that much honestly after what transpired yesterday...

 

[Excel]

If this film is to become the megahit it was expected and deserved to be, it will not do it through opening weekend. It will do it through a leggy box office run.

#Fullcircle

 

[hatebox]

The shootings clearly had an effect. To suggest otherwise is ludicrous. FWIW, I had this pegged at 185m OW, maybe hoping for 190m so it would break the attendence record. A total pipe dream now, and TDKR's box office run will forever be a 'what if?'

 

[Excel]

The damn movie was tracking 7% ahead of Avengers and Potter. if it fails to break 170 million, we all know there was a huge issue. the twilight sized pre shooting midnights show that there was certainly enormous interest.

 

[Salieri]

The shootings clearly had an effect. To suggest otherwise is ludicrous. FWIW, I had this pegged at 185m OW, maybe hoping for 190m so it would break the attendence record. A total pipe dream now, and TDKR's box office run will forever be a 'what if?'

Don't feel sorry for it yet. This tragedy, as sad and gruesome as it was, made people who don't prefer comic book movies be aware of TDKR. And if WB announce some kind of donation/special event later this month in Colorado people will give it a new life and a better multiplier. Saying that, i already think it will pass the 500m domestically & 700m in foreign markets.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Word around the boxoffice forums is that China will not release TDKR because of the shooting incident, can anyone confirm that? If true, it's a huge loss.

 

[miggizle85]

People would not be nearly as depressed at these results had the box office sites been more realistic in their predictions. 200M was really pushing it, but when BOM said 215M that was all hype. I can understand people getting caught up in the hype, but I said for months people needed to keep their expectations in check.

No doubt the shootings are having an effect, but if it ends up at 170M, I'd say it's actually doing very well in wake of the shootings. The shootings had no effect on the midnight shows because no one knew about it, and 30M was way too low to break the record. At a minimum it had to have beat Potter's midnight.

I had midnight pegged at 35 as I was looking at it in comparison to the Twilight films. Alot of people predicting 100M opening day were calling for a 50M midnight, which was just pure hype, but alot of the reputable box office reporting sites went with the hype. Now of course they couldn't possibly have guessed what would have happened in the next 24 hrs, but I suspect even if nothing had happened, the weekend record was still pretty safe.

Alot of us were pointing out that with Avengers most of the theater chains were operating at or near capacity. AMC's credit card system was brought to a screeching halt, and we really saw for the first time since the mid 90's before the building of alot of the mega screen theaters, that we were reaching the tipping point.

Again, for DKR to have made 200M it needed a 20% boost in attendance. A boost so big it hasn't happened from a previous attendane record holder since Spider-man 1 increased 22% over Harry Potter 1.

Dude it had $30+ million in pre-sales, and $30+ million in its first hour. You better beleive that if it end up in the $170million range then the shooting most definately crushed its performance this weekend. Yeah Harry Potter had a huge midnight but the HP series had always been EXTREMELY front loaded. Little kids and teens SWARMED to its midnight showing and thus the rest of the weekend didn't hold well at all. This movie was poised to take that $30 million midnight take and turn it into a $90+ million Friday and $220+ million weekend. There is no doubt in my mind about that.

Yes people are still turning up but those are the people who planned on seeing it anyways. You're not thinking about the casual moviegoer. The people who want something "fun" to do for the weekend. You think any single one of those people can even fathom the idea of "fun" at a theater right now? If you were on the fence going into the weekend, then this shooting most definately made your mind up for you.... "yeah.... I think I'll just go to the park instead".

All that being said.... I mean its just money. Money is made, money is lost. The lord giveth, the lord taketh away. However there are 12 people who will never be given back to us anymore. Something like that should really put all this Marvel vs DC crap into perspective. IT DOESN'T MATTER. The value of human life supercedes ANY trivial fanboy arguments.

People. Love your families. Cherish them every day. Hell go to the park with them or to the movies. Just enjoy every minute with them, and be thankful for the lives we all have.

 

[miggizle85]

By the way any one of you who are ignorant enough to think that "the tragedy publicized TDKR more" in a good way. You have no idea what you are talking about. I mean seriously I cant beleive the garbage I'm seeing on here. For any one of you to suggest that the death of 12 people at a midnight show has gotten people more "aware" and as a result has "boosted" its boxoffice performance... I mean you need to have your brains checked.

Put yourself in the shoes of someone who was on the fence about seeing the movie this weekend. Or more to the point of someone who wasn't aware that TDKR came out this weekend. You wake up Friday morning and hear "71 shot, 12 dead at midnight premier of Dark Knight Rises".

Do you actually think that the first thing that person thinks is "hmmm.... hey the new Batman movie came out this weekend. Oh man I gotta go see that".

NOOO! COME ON PEOPLE! Use your common sense.

 

[Venom75]

I haven't seen it yet(I plan to next week or so)and the main reason being that I figured it's gonna be packed all weekend. A few friends I had told me the same thing. They didn't think they would get in,or just didn't feel like waiting in line.

 

[Raiden]

Deadline has revised their OW estimate to 163 mil.

 

[Silver Surfer]

163 mil, couldn't even beat HP8, heck it barely beat TDK. Damn just damn....

 

[Tony Stark]

Dude it had $30+ million in pre-sales, and $30+ million in its first hour. You better beleive that if it end up in the $170million range then the shooting most definately crushed its performance this weekend. Yeah Harry Potter had a huge midnight but the HP series had always been EXTREMELY front loaded. Little kids and teens SWARMED to its midnight showing and thus the rest of the weekend didn't hold well at all. This movie was poised to take that $30 million midnight take and turn it into a $90+ million Friday and $220+ million weekend. There is no doubt in my mind about that.

I said it had an effect, only a fool would think it wouldn't have an effect. I live 10-12 miles away from where this incident occured, so I'm well aware it is having an effect. But let's just say the number is $170, do I think that it effected it by 30-40M? No, if you look at what that translates into attendance figures, that's insane.

My prediction before the open was $185. I thought it had a shot at 200, if the midnight number beat Harry Potter, and as I mentioned the midnight number was 12M away from a record. That was just for hitting 200. All this talk of it breaking OW, was rediculous and most of the box office sites knew that, it was just hype.

Yes the shooting had an effect and we won't ever really know what that total dollar amount was, but I suspect maybe between 10-20M, and whatever it loses there it will gain back over the run of the film.

 

[The Riddler]

shooting incident definitely hurt the box office. there's no doubt it did.

 

[Tony Stark]

Deadline has revised their OW estimate to 163 mil.

That is sad to hear, I thought it still might have a chance at 180 when the actuals came in. But those numbers would have to be off by 10% for that to be incorrect.

I think that estimate can still go up if they see enough walk up business on Sunday.

 

[Bruce Malone]

At this point TDKR still has legs to fall on. Yes it's obvious that event has dampened this weekend still going into further weekends the effect will be greatly lessened.

I'm still predicting a billion + worldwide.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

abc7 said (before the midnight premier, so before the shooting occurred) that it was estimated to bring in 198 million, which is pretty close to avengers' 207 million if you ask me, and that is damn impressive considering dkr didnt come out in 3d

could this mean it sold more tickets too?