The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread III

[Tony Stark]

Mamma Mia opened the same weekend as TDK, so I'm not convinced that it had weaker competition. There are no other big releases this weekend. The Watch won't do any better than Pineapple Express or Tropic Thunder, both of which ate into TDK's audience. Overall I think the competition is similar between TDK and TDKR. The difference is going to be a bigger opening for TDKR and the fact that it doesn't have a legendary performance like Ledger's Joker. Both of those elements will guarantee that TDKR has a weaker multiplier. I mean Avengers had the same (or better) WOM as TDK, and yet its multiplier will end up about 9-10% lower because it opened so much bigger.

Definitely the open is a factor, and a 3X multiplier is excellent. I just think there are several factors at play here, and to get a 3.37 multiplier for a big movie like this, doesn't come along every day, only Spider-man 1 is the only film in the genre that beats it.

You're probably right about the competition, it's hard to say now because in retro the Mummy was a total flop, Step Brothers did OK because it had a low budget. I totally forgot about Mamma Mia, which was primarily directed as the "female alternative" to the dark knight, and had an excellent multiplier.

 

[db85usa]

So my theater is opening up the theater for seating at 2 PM for the Marathon and I'm showing up at 4 PM. This is going to be nuts.

 

[db85usa]

'The Dark Knight Rises' To Beat BFI IMAX Record

www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/dark-knight-rises-beat-bfi-351134

 

[Jack O Lantern]

My local cinema have sold three screenings at 5am in the morning.

It's crazy.

I wouldn't want to see a movie at that time

 

[Dragon_316ca]

@Boxoffice

THE DARK KNIGHT RISES location counts: 4,404 total. 3,700 midnight locations. 332 IMAX locations.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Definitely the open is a factor, and a 3X multiplier is excellent. I just think there are several factors at play here, and to get a 3.37 multiplier for a big movie like this, doesn't come along every day, only Spider-man 1 is the only film in the genre that beats it.

You're probably right about the competition, it's hard to say now because in retro the Mummy was a total flop, Step Brothers did OK because it had a low budget. I totally forgot about Mamma Mia, which was primarily directed as the "female alternative" to the dark knight, and had an excellent multiplier.

Yeah, Mamma Mia played as excellent counter-programming to TDK. It even outgrossed it in the UK (and TDK was massive there, so that is a big accomplishment).

 

[kvz5]

About the opening in China:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...zing-spiderman-china-20120717,0,4550564.story

 

[db85usa]

After midnight, I'm expecting Rises to break the opening day and single day record. Minimum $95 million, Maximum $115 Million. RT is solid but the negative reviews are already more than half of what TDK had altogether.

 

[Iceman]

Realistically 200M is probably the max. Someone had a very good breakdown of this on the BOT forums. But just to get to 200M, TDKR would need to have a 13% increase in attendance over Avengers. Avengers only had like a 3.23% increase in audience attendance over TDK. What throws everyone off is Potter which had lower attendance than TDK, but with 3D won the record, so Avengers had a 22.9% increase in audience attendance over that. So the last two major increases in audience attendance was back in 2002 (Spider-man 23.9%) and in 1997 (Jurassic Park TLW 29.5).

Now keep in mind from 1997-2002 there was a huge increase in the number of mega theater complexes that were built, that tapered off after that. So what am I getting at? To get to $215M you'd be talking about another huge 20-30% increase in attendance, that the theater chains probably can't handle.

Avengers was an aberration, not one single outlet who tracks this kind of stuff predicted that. The highest I saw was 175M before the weekend, and even after the Friday numbers came in they were saying 180-185.

Even to get to get a 13% increase in attendance would be a miracle in and of itself. Avengers without 3D boost is about 185, and that's probably the median target to look at, 190-195 would be a decent boost, and probably doable, and would be an increase in attendance over Avengers.

Fair points. I wrote out a long response but the Hype somehow deleted it. Can't face starting again right now

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Actually, without 3D, The Avengers opened at 169m on OW. Two box office related sites 'confirmed' the scores. Another site had The Avengers at an estimated 175m.

 

[db85usa]

Actually, without 3D, The Avengers opened at 169m on OW. Two box office related sites 'confirmed' the scores. Another site had The Avengers at an estimated 175m.

Yup. Was just about to say the same thing. Think it was $169.9 Million without 3D or something like that.

 

[Tony Stark]

Actually, without 3D, The Avengers opened at 169m on OW. Two box office related sites 'confirmed' the scores. Another site had The Avengers at an estimated 175m.

I don't know where you got that from but that's not correct. I've seen some sites that incorrectly tallied Avengers and took away 3D boost from IMAX showings, which might get down to a number that low.

The number was 185, and that is estimated because studios are not required to release attendance figures, but it was estimated that Avengers had just over a 3% increase in attendance over TDK, but that is within the margin of error so it could have been the same or lower.

 

[Tony Stark]

FWIW for TDKR to obtain the record it needs a 20% boost in attendance over TDK. Assmuming Avengers was roughly the same, or lets say worse case at 4% margin of error, it might get 18-19% increase and obtain the record.

 

[Iceman]

Yup. Was just about to say the same thing. Think it was $169.9 Million without 3D or something like that.

It really doesn't matter anyway. DKR will want to be going way past these figures.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I don't know where you got that from but that's not correct. I've seen some sites that incorrectly tallied Avengers and took away 3D boost from IMAX showings, which might get down to a number that low.

The number was 185, and that is estimated because studios are not required to release attendance figures, but it was estimated that Avengers had just over a 3% increase in attendance over TDK, but that is within the margin of error so it could have been the same or lower.

Several of these articles were posted on this thread. Feel free to look through them but the estimates were between 165-175m when the 3D numbers were subtracted.

 

[Tony Stark]

I agree it doesn't matter, but for those that want to know, 1.) there's no way of knowing for sure, because we don't know for sure if Avengers broke TDK's attendance (just an estimate), and 2.) if you did want to know you'd have to be an insider at the studio as they only release sales figures not tickets purchased. The BO sites have to do some math to calculate that.

I will tell you anyone saying $169M is wrong, because that is taking away 3D boost from IMAX theaters and other types of premium screens (i.e Regal RTX) that would be equally expensive in 2D as 3D.

 

[db85usa]

I don't know where you got that from but that's not correct. I've seen some sites that incorrectly tallied Avengers and took away 3D boost from IMAX showings, which might get down to a number that low.

The number was 185, and that is estimated because studios are not required to release attendance figures, but it was estimated that Avengers had just over a 3% increase in attendance over TDK, but that is within the margin of error so it could have been the same or lower.

$169.2 Million OW without 3D surcharge.

www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/article/1226199--christopher-nolan-on-how-the-bat-came-back

 

[Tony Stark]

Several of these articles were posted on this thread. Feel free to look through them but the estimates were between 165-175m when the 3D numbers were subtracted.

They are wrong. It's this simple. TDK adjusted for inflation is about 175. Attendance estimates are + 3.5% for Avengers, and the standard deviation is +/- 4% so that means either -1.5% or + 7.5%, that means Avengers is approx 172.5M - 188M.

The people figuring 3D and subtracting that aren't counting for premium tickets that cost just as much 3D or non 3D.

 

[db85usa]

I agree it doesn't matter, but for those that want to know, 1.) there's no way of knowing for sure, because we don't know for sure if Avengers broke TDK's attendance (just an estimate), and 2.) if you did want to know you'd have to be an insider at the studio as they only release sales figures not tickets purchased. The BO sites have to do some math to calculate that.

I will tell you anyone saying $169M is wrong, because that is taking away 3D boost from IMAX theaters and other types of premium screens (i.e Regal RTX) that would be equally expensive in 2D as 3D.

The figure of $169.2 Million on The Star article excludes the 3D surcharge since Rises will be in IMAX as well. It's to show that if TDKR opens with $170 million or more it would've beaten the $207 OW record if Rises was in 3D.

There really needs to be an asterisk put on these OW records.

 

[db85usa]

They are wrong. It's this simple. TDK adjusted for inflation is about 175. Attendance estimates are + 3.5% for Avengers, and the standard deviation is +/- 4% so that means either -1.5% or + 7.5%, that means Avengers is approx 172.5M - 188M.

The people figuring 3D and subtracting that aren't counting for premium tickets that cost just as much 3D or non 3D.

You're over analyzing. Even Nolanfans, CBM, Yahoo Finance, Toronto.com, etc a lot of websites are confirming $169.2 Million was TA OW gross without the 3D sales.

 

[Tony Stark]

The figure of $169.2 Million on The Star article excludes the 3D surcharge since Rises will be in IMAX as well. It's to show that if TDKR opens with $170 million or more it would've beaten the $207 OW record if Rises was in 3D.

There really needs to be an asterisk put on these OW records.

The Star article is wrong. You can't subtract the 3D surcharge and coun't IMAX for TDKR.

TDKR could very well have higher attendance than Avengers, and I fully understand that. Their math is wrong.

 

[lililatigresse]

The Star article is wrong. You can't subtract the 3D surcharge and coun't IMAX for TDKR.

TDKR could very well have higher attendance than Avengers, and I fully understand that. Their math is wrong.

For once, I actually agree with you.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Add Forbes as well. I'll have to scavenge for the article throughout this thread but I doubt Forbes severely miscalculated. Their estimate was at 172.7 million.

 

[db85usa]

The Star article is wrong. You can't subtract the 3D surcharge and coun't IMAX for TDKR.

TDKR could very well have higher attendance than Avengers, and I fully understand that. Their math is wrong.

Dude, that total ($169.2 million) INCLUDES IMAX premiums (2D) just NOT 3D sales because Rises is only 2D. That is why I am saying it excludes 3D sales altogether even IMAX 3D.

 

[db85usa]

Add Forbes as well. I'll have to scavenge for the article throughout this thread but I doubt Forbes severely miscalculated. Their estimate was at 172.7 million.

I think Forbes is more accurate. What Mr. Tony Stark doesn't get, is these figures are guesstimates of excluding all 3D sales for TA OW. So, a more accurate total is $169-$172 million OW when you subtract the 3D gross which we all know TDKR is likely to succeed these totals.