The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread III

[Reek]

How do you know that, exactly? Of the 300-400 million people in the U.S., I'm quite sure a crazy ****er with a gun will scare a couple million people to not see the movie the day after.

Just my opinion.

 

[JerseyJoker]

Well if people are going to stick to that idea.

Then guess what, the only reason TDK did what it did in the box office back in 08 was because Heath Ledger died. If he didn't die, the film wouldn't of done that cash wise.

 

[Liam_H]

Opening weekend yes his death added a lot of fuel to that fire but overall? You don't make that much just on his death.

This tragedy certainly lowered this weekends take we just will never know by how much.

 

[db85usa]

Its pathetic to see people use the shooting to justify why Batman didn't break 200 mill.

You only think it is pathetic because you think fans are using it as an excuse. We are not. We are simply stating how such an awful tragedy will no doubt affect how people will view this movie or avoid it altogether upfront. I accept that. On a business stand point, it will affect not just TDKR but probably all other movies for some time.

It's just fun to follow and speculate the box office numbers especially this movie because it's the last summer blockbuster. There is nothing wrong with fans participating in this. Whether we do or don't, it won't change anything that has occurred these past 48 hours. We don't work for the studio and gain absolutely nothing from it. If you don't like it, there are plenty of other threads to post a reply.

 

[Reek]

yea, I'm pretty sure heaths death was partially responsible for 30 mill. of tdk's OW... so yea, a tragedy the weekend the movie opens, during this movie, will affect its BO this weekend...and any other weekend that would have happened.

 

[miggizle85]

A shooting doesn't make a film lose 30 mill at the box office. I'm sorry.

Oh really? Then tell us then Mr. expert how exactly you know this? There is NO precedent for a situation like this. How can you sit there and say. "I'm sorry but a shooting does not lose a movie 30 mill" ? Huh?

This much we do know. It was tracking 5% better than Avengers going into the weekend. It has made $30 million in pre sales, second only to HP7. And finally it made $31 million at midnight, which also was second only to the EXTREMELY front loaded HP7.

Using TDK's as a measuring stick,.which made $18 million at Midnight and $158 million for the weekend, then TDKR was on pace to make $250 to $260 for the weekend. Dialing that number back for modesty reasons I still feel it was on pace for at least $220 million.

If.you wanna know how a shooting... No.... A national tragedy can crush a movies box office performance, just put yourself in the shoes of a general audience member. Someone who isn't a big fan of Batman, or comics, or action movies for that matter. You go into the weekend not sure what you're plans are fir the weekend. Don't you think that hearing about a mass shooting at a.theater might turn you off to the idea about seeing a movie that weekend? Let alone the very.same movie that 71 people were attending the premiere of when they were shot by a mad man claiming to be "the joker"?

 

[TanneRain]

If you don't think that the largest mass shooting in US history didn't take away from the box office, you are being delusional. I was uneasy seeing the movie for a second time after hearing about that, but that's just letting fear control what you do. I'm sure a good amount of people didn't go to the movies this weekend because of fear.

 

[craigdbfan]

Name calling isn't necessary guys. Please avoid it.

 

[Liam_H]

Not necessarily fear but just less enthusiasm. I certainly didn't feel as excited anymore after the story broke.

 

[miggizle85]

Name calling isn't necessary guys. Please avoid it.

My mistake. Sorry.

 

[miggizle85]

Not necessarily fear but just less enthusiasm. I certainly didn't feel as excited anymore after the story broke.

Exactly. I saw it Friday night and had an uneasy feeling the entire time. Saw again today in the morning and was able to enjoy it a little better. The loss of human life, especially fellow Americans, fellow movie goers, and fellow Batfans... it's just disheartening.

 

[joker1524]

Do ur part guys lol..i just came back from my 4th showing in 4 days lol

 

[Spuzz]

Well if people are going to stick to that idea.

Then guess what, the only reason TDK did what it did in the box office back in 08 was because Heath Ledger died. If he didn't die, the film wouldn't of done that cash wise.

I hate to admit that this is true but it is. If it was due to TRUE Batman demand, where was everyone for BB? Sure the fact that Joker was the villain is a bigger deal but Bane's lesser than Joker and TDKR is doing great. Then again that could be because of anticipation built up by TDK. It's all confusing. However I think there's no denying that the HUGE numbers this series is going to make as a whole have a lot to owe to what Heath Ledger did while he was with us.

 

[miggizle85]

I hate to admit that this is true but it is. If it was due to TRUE Batman demand, where was everyone for BB? Sure the fact that Joker was the villain is a bigger deal but Bane's lesser than Joker and TDKR is doing great. Then again that could be because of anticipation built up by TDK. It's all confusing. However I think there's no denying that the HUGE numbers this series is going to make as a whole have a lot to owe to what Heath Ledger did while he was with us.

Do you fools not even understand how the world works? People didn't turn out in record numbers for Begins because the Batman franchise had lost the faith of people thanks to Schumachers horrid Batman and Robin. Also people didn't know what to make of a dark gritty remake in 2005 because up until that point remakes and reboots were.mostly crappy. Begins restored peoples faith in the Batman franchise.

"Where was the demand for Batman movies before Ledgers death?" You do realize the opening weekend record has been broken multiple times by Batman movies in the past right?

 

[atomicbattery]

The average NFL Sunday afternoon broadcast draws less than 5 million viewers. The NFL's weekly showcase, Sunday nights on NBC, draws 20 to 30 million. The Super Bowl gets over one hundred million viewers. Years ago I read an article in the New York Times that stated that something like half of the Super Bowl audience had not, in fact, watched any other football that year.

Studios try to create an event with an opening weekend, something like the Super Bowl- an unofficial national holiday. It becomes the thing to do- and particularly the thing to do for an audience of millions who have no particular interest in Batman (or Spider-Man, or The Avengers, or Harry Potter or Pirates, etc.).

Once this tragedy happened, and also the Warner marketing machine went dark, that audience was gone forever.

I posted that before but I think it's worth repeating.

A poster at another board actually said that TDKR is benefiting from everyone talking about this.
That is like saying that New York City tourism benefited immediately following the terrorist attacks because everyone was talking about New York.

 

[miggizle85]

You know, I think that things are only gonna from. bad to worse. The general, public, won't understand that a $160 million weekend will have been the result, of TDKR losing business rather than gaining it. As soon as the media outlets get ahold of that total you KNOW that some sensationalist half wit is gonna stir up controversy. You know people are gonna be outraged that TDKR even made one penny after that shooting and when they find out that it made $160 million, we're not gonna hear the end of it. Get ready for it cuz it's coming.

Still I mean compared to the loss of human life, these "problems" definitely seem trivial.

 

[Ultimatehero]

If you don't think that the largest mass shooting in US history didn't take away from the box office, you are being delusional. I was uneasy seeing the movie for a second time after hearing about that, but that's just letting fear control what you do. I'm sure a good amount of people didn't go to the movies this weekend because of fear.

Same here. Went the second time night after. And although I was on the edge of my seat Thursday. I was flinching Friday when the gun shots went off at times. Third time, didn't happen.

 

[db85usa]

So the info leaked from WB and TDKR will gross a less than expected whopping $160 mil for its OW. Some admissions still left to count. Now the real fun will be keeping an eye on this in the coming weeks/months. Can this movie possibly have a higher multiplier than TDK?

 

[munchie64]

You know a film is meant to be popular when $160 mil is less than expected...

 

[The Riddler]

i'll be interested to see how it does next week...this film may have legs.

 

[Juicy J]

Using TDK's as a measuring stick,.which made $18 million at Midnight and $158 million for the weekend, then TDKR was on pace to make $250 to $260 for the weekend. Dialing that number back for modesty reasons I still feel it was on pace for at least $220 million.

Sorry but that was just never feasible. While I believe it was always within the realm of possibility that it would make more than 200 million, it was always a longshot. Saying that the shootings took over $30 million from the potential earnings is ludicrous. Work that math out: that's saying that roughly 3 million people that would have potentially gone to see the film didn't because of the shootings.
That's a TON of people and I see zero evidence that the negative effect on the box office was anywhere near that massive.
Also, I refer to this post from earlier:

Avengers without the 3D boost was around 185, and it had slightly higher attendance than TDK. How much is debatable, but most theaters were struggling with the walkup business Avengers was generating.

But the tell-tale sign was when TDKR's midnight number came in (which were uneffected by the shooting), and they were only 30M. TDKR really needed a 40-50M midnight to dabble with 200M.

Some have argued "well Avengers did it with only 18M midnight", well it was a May release and that suggested it was going to have huge numbers on Saturday and Sunday.

Avengers minus mindight had over a 3.0x multiplier for opening weekend where TDK minus midnights had only a 2.85x multiplier. With midnights included TDK only had a 2.35x multiplier, Avengers 2.58x.

That basically tells you, this was going to be more front loaded, because of the larger midnights. Therefore it needed an 85.5 M Friday using that multiplier to get to 200M, and just over 88M to tie the record. That's assuming it end up with the same multiplier, because the other effect is the higher the midnight, usually the multiplier goes down.

Bottom line if the shootings didn't happen it probably would have been 170M -185M. How much within that range, we'll never know.

 

[db85usa]

i'll be interested to see how it does next week...this film may have legs.

Same here. It's kind of refreshing that I haven't seen much advertising on TV or heard anything on the radio. Kind of makes it feel like the 90's again before bitorrent, P2P filesharing started hurting movies or before everyone had the internet where the only decision to be made was to pay and go see the movie(s) for yourself.

 

[danoyse]

Its pathetic to see people use the shooting to justify why Batman didn't break 200 mill.

It's not pathetic at all. You might want to tone down that attitude.

 

[miggizle85]

Sorry but that was just never feasible. While I believe it was always within the realm of possibility that it would make more than 200 million, it was always a longshot. Saying that the shootings took over $30 million from the potential earnings is ludicrous. Work that math out: that's saying that roughly 3 million people that would have potentially gone to see the film didn't because of the shootings.
That's a TON of people and I see zero evidence that the negative effect on the box office was anywhere near that massive.
Also, I refer to this post from earlier:

Really? Why is not feasible to look at the one bit of TDKR revenue that we KNOW was not affected by the shooting which was the midnight gross, and then compare that to TDKs midnight gross and estimate what could have been from there?

TDKs midnight was $18.4 million. That resulted in a $158.4 million weekend.
Using that as a bench mark then TDKRs $30.6 million midnight could have translated to a total weekend total of $263 million. Again dialing that number back for modesty reasons, I still don't see how you can say that a potential weekend total of AT LEAST $220 million could be "ludicrous".

Also 3 million people being turned away as a result if the shooting, in a country of 311 million, is not so hard to imagine.

But alas we will never know.

 

[Art Damage]

A 7 o clock regular showing on a Sunday sold out.

Yeah this movie is going to be just fine.