Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[fallenAngel]

Disaster porn in space gets a pass

The final frontier for disaster porn

 

[marvelrobbins]

Singer had as much if not more influence on First Class as Vaughn had on DOFP so why is Vaughn getting credit for the good stuff in DOFP but Singer doesn't get any credit for First Class? All this double standards are just ridiculous. X2 is still the best one tbh such a masterful way of handling so many characters while still telling a complex story, it probably has the most compelling action in the entire franchise as well.

I agree.singer actully produced FC.vaughn didn't with DOFP.FC was clearly singer's idea while vaughn simply helped with Kinberg on devolping story.

Even though DOFP made more money i still consider X2 to be best X-men film.

 

[SuperT]

Singer had as much if not more influence on First Class as Vaughn had on DOFP so why is Vaughn getting credit for the good stuff in DOFP but Singer doesn't get any credit for First Class?

I don't think anyone here isn't giving Singer credit for First Class, he helped produce it so of course he had a hand in it. Saying that, I don't think it's a coincidence that the two critically highest rated X-films in the franchise were either directed by Matthew Vaughn and written by people he works with often (Goldman, Stentz) or that the story was written/developed by him and his team as was the case with DoFP.

 

[fallenAngel]

I don't think anyone here isn't giving Singer credit for First Class, he helped produce it so of course he had a hand in it. Saying that, I don't think it's a coincidence that the two critically highest rated X-films in the franchise were either directed by Matthew Vaughn and written by people he works with often (Goldman, Stentz) or that the story was written/developed by him and his team as was the case with DoFP.

Vaughn also had a hand (however slight) in the Last Stand as well, for better or worse who knows. Not many of his ideas carried over, but it would've been interesting to see his take on that movie.

 

[The Guard]

No one is bashing it - the 60's setting was awesome in First Class and the 70's setting was great in DoFP as well. The problem with Apocalypse in the 80's is that there's nothing that helps center and ground it in that time period.

That's not entirely accurate.

The whole idea of the escalation of the world's "superpowers" which is what drives Apocalypse to want to cleanse the Earth, escalating global conflicts, and the threat of nuclear disaster...these are very 80's-relevant concepts.

Much like in previous films, the global conflict is used as a setting more than specific storyline. Yes, Vietnam and the Paris Peace Accords are used as the backdrop of events, but they're not really a concrete part of the story. Not anything close to the direct connection the X-Men have to the Cuban Missile Crisis in FIRST CLASS, for instance.

There is an entire sequence devoted to the specific nuclear threat of the 80's in APOCALYPSE.

Does the film have as much as FIRST CLASS and DAYS OF FUTURE PAST did? Not directly, but it does have something very concretely related to the era. And it'd be hard to argue that the "deviation from history" seen here would not be just as impactful as the "mutant encounters with history" seen in the two previous movies. The world's nuclear deterrents just get essentially taken out of the equation. That's an enormous global impact, even if storywise it's limited to one major sequence.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Thursday domestic: $1,876,413

 

[marvelrobbins]

up to 126 million domesticly.

 

[fallenAngel]

Thursday domestic: $1,876,413

Worse 14th day hold than both Dofp and First Class. I have a feeling Warcraft is going to hurt it's third weekend.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

up to 126 million domesticly.

Domestically is a failure.

WW a success.

 

[Sithborg]

Eh, success is a bit too of a strong word.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

It's a domestic disappointment

 

[superweirdo87]

Worse 14th day hold than both Dofp and First Class. I have a feeling Warcraft is going to hurt it's third weekend.

Do you see a 9M third weekend? I figured it would make 10M in light of the way BvS, CA:CW, DOFP, and X3 fell from 2nd to 3rd.

 

[fallenAngel]

Do you see a 9M third weekend? I figured it would make 10M in light of the way BvS, CA:CW, DOFP, and X3 fell from 2nd to 3rd.

Third weekends for superhero movies tend to have closer to a 50-55% drop (less steep than 2nd weekend), so yeah, probably 9 on the low end, 10-11 mil high

EDIT: Box Office Mojo is actually predicting an 11 mil weekend

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4195&p=.htm

 

[superweirdo87]

10.275 is what Box Office Pro sees. That seems intuitive in light of the overall pattern for drops. Over 50% from second to third weekend and XMA had weak reviews and mixed WOM. I figured the fundamentals are in line with a performance like X3 or slightly weaker than DOFP.

 

[fallenAngel]

Yeah, I feel like Box Office Mojo may be a little high.

But something around that range is an average hold for this sort of thing

4th of July weekend is an extended weekend this year, so it should get a bit of boost then. Though ID: Resurgence could negate that.

 

[Superhero 101]

If the domestic gets over 150 then I think its okay anything under then yes its a disappointment domestically

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

If the domestic gets over 150 then I think its okay anything under then yes its a disappointment domestically

Domestic total less than the budget is usually considered a disappointment. While it can still be "saved" by the foreign box office, a film should at least gross its budget in North America.

 

[superweirdo87]

I think even over 150, which is not a sure thing, is a major disappointment. Scott Mendelson who is fair-minded on this stuff says XMA is a disappointment in NA. It's a reasonable assessment.

 

[Erzengel]

Tell that to Tom Cruise. Who's career is saved by his popularity overseas.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Tell that to Tom Cruise. Who's career is saved by his popularity overseas.

That doesn't really contradict what we were saying. Edge of Tomorrow was a domestic disappointment that was saved by stellar overseas box office. Warner Brothers certainly didn't release the film expecting it to make less than its budget, domestically.

 

[Erzengel]

I wasn't trying to contradict what you were saying. Cruise's last 4 movies were critically well received and (aside from MI which wasn't really a stellar bo showing) but do much better overseas. Yet, they already green lit another MI movie, another Jack Reacher this year. So some Studios "seem" to be happy with foreign money.

 

[superweirdo87]

Spectre did not do as well as some thought it might, but it made 200 domestic and 880 worldwide on a 245 budget.

 

[Micromind]

XMA had a really bad release date.

 

[marvelrobbins]

up to 129 Million Domesticly and 431 Million WW.

 

[Tilapia]

Worse than BvS even by proportionate measures. Definitely think the franchise needs to rest for a good bit. Stick with Deadpool. X-films just can't produce big money at the box office to date.