Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[kevork89]

You know something is wrong when X-Men had a giant leap at the box-office when the original cast then took a nose dive when it was just the First Class cast again to headline a X-Men moie. Then you had that successful Deadpool movie that didn't have the nostalgia factor or build-up/goodwill from the last movie and it came out just a few months after this.

The X-Men franchise can't rely on this cast alone. X3 was disappointing to many and yet Origins: Wolverine still opened big with negative reviews. While this one had the goodwill from Deadpool/DOFP and still failed to at least open big or closer to the OW of those films (well at least DOFP).

Deadpool had no one from the original cast and it did better than any X-Men film original cast or not. The OC isn't as big of a factor as you think. If it's a well written script, looks good and marketed well the movie will be a success. Like DoFP and Deadpool. Everything worked for those movies. Of course be OC helped the nostalgia feel of DoFP but also the pull of DoFP was rectifying the mistakes made with Last Stand. People knew in the end they'd see Cyclops and Jean alive again. Apocalypse could've easily topped DoFP especially due to the success. Fox and co dropped the ball by falling into the same pattern and also marketing the movie horribly. Scott, Jean and Nightctawler are the standouts and had such big roles but were virtually absent from marketing. If the same movie was made with the OC it could've made similar money maybe more based on those actors alone but if the script was horrible with bad reviews it still would've underperformed.

 

[psylockolussus]

That's just an impossible claim to make. First Class experienced a massive boost when the OG cast came aboard for DOFP, and ticket sales took a dip when they left for Apocalypse. Correlation isn't causation in every case but this shouldn't be immediately dismissed.

Yeah the numbers don't lie.

I hear "the cast is too old" quite a lot but yet never hear any complaints about RDJ.

The reason why people harp on about the original cast is because there is a cast there. The OT had ton of essential characters played by stars that the general audience are attached to. Only 4 characters consistantly appeared in the First Class trilogy*, and all of them are also represented among the original cast by actors regarded as being as good or better in the role. That's a problem. XM:A has made steps to remedy this with a good line-up, but it may be a little too late. There is no-one to anchor the next film with, so unless the marketing is flat out awesome I expect the next film to struggle.

*There's actually 5 characters to appear in every film, but no-one cares about Havok.

The actors playing The Hulk, Ant-Man, Vision are old too. and I'm pretty sure, when I tallied the current MCU actors before, there's more actors that are as old as James Marsden/Halle Berry, if not older. And from how DOFP ended.

Wolverine, Jean, Cyke, Storm, Rogue, Iceman, Colossus, Kitty, Beast, Xavier >>>>> Xavier, Beast, Mystique, Magneto, Quicksilver and Havok... any day, got more X-Men!

 

[psylockolussus]

Deadpool had no one from the original cast and it did better than any X-Men film original cast or not. The OC isn't as big of a factor as you think.

In X-Men Days of Future Past... it was a big factor. Don't tell me if DOFP didn't feature any cast members from the OT, It would have earned the same?

And with them not coming back for Apocalypse, made it more clear.

There's no excuse for First Class not able to maintain the goodwill when like you said, there's a Deadpool movie that didn't rely on the OT cast and nostalgia factor.

 

[psyonic]

I'd rather watch a movie set post DoFP with the old cast, a good script with a competent director. I really, really think it is Kinberg who is the weak link. You can tell by his interviews he doesn't know what he's talking about or care about the source material. The guy is an idiot.

I'm less interested in seeing teenage X-Men. Please don't give us that crap anymore lol 16 years and only 4 well developed chracters??? Just let that sink in..

 

[psylockolussus]

I'd rather watch a movie set post DoFP with the old cast, a good script with a competent director. I really, really think it is Kinberg who is the weak link. You can tell by his interviews he doesn't know what he's talking about or care about the source material. The guy is an idiot.

I'm less interested in seeing teenage X-Men. Please don't give us that crap anymore lol 16 years and only 4 well developed chracters??? Just let that sink in..

And I just keep thinking if we got a DOFP sequel with the OT cast.... I doubt they would continue that Mystique/Charles conflict. LOL that'd be just weird to see Rebecca Romijn/Patrick Stewart do that. Then Magneto... I thought Ian's scene with patrick Stewart when they shook hands could have been a great closure for those two. So it'd be just X-Men (you know X-Men that weren't Brotherhood in the comics) vs Apocalypse. And it would have been more intense if some of the X-Men were brainwashed as the Horsemen.

And oh yeah Kinberg needs to go!

 

[spider-neil]

It's time to draw a line under the Charles and Eric dynamic and give us something new and fresh. Go to space and make a R rated Brood movie.

 

[GuestStar2004]

And I just keep thinking if we got a DOFP sequel with the OT cast.... I doubt they would continue that Mystique/Charles conflict. LOL that'd be just weird to see Rebecca Romijn/Patrick Stewart do that. Then Magneto... I thought Ian's scene with patrick Stewart when they shook hands could have been a great closure for those two. So it'd be just X-Men (you know X-Men that weren't Brotherhood in the comics) vs Apocalypse. And it would have been more intense if some of the X-Men were brainwashed as the Horsemen.!

Thats just your fan fiction though, i am sure many were planning how perfect x3 was gonna go also before we got it and found out the things they actually had in mind

 

[psylockolussus]

It's time to draw a line under the Charles and Eric dynamic and give us something new and fresh. Go to space and make a R rated Brood movie.

X-Men going to space is usually my least favorite part of the X-Men mythology, especially in the comics, like the stories I've read, Breakworld, Swarms, Rise/fFall of Shi'ar Empire, Universe story-arc from Legacy, Meanwhile to name a few. X-Men vs Aliens is just not my cup of tea. I don't know, but I have yet to read the really old X-Men stories like from the 60s up to the 80s (maybe I will one day) so maybe it could work. But I still prefer X-Men in Earth.

 

[spider-neil]

X-Men going to space is usually my least favorite part of the X-Men mythology, especially in the comics, like the stories I've read, Breakworld, Swarms, Rise/fFall of Shi'ar Empire, Universe story-arc from Legacy, Meanwhile to name a few. X-Men vs Aliens is just not my cup of tea. I don't know, but I have yet to read the really old X-Men stories like from the 60s up to the 80s (maybe I will one day) so maybe it could work. But I still prefer X-Men in Earth.

We've seen that. I need to see something new. Actually, I could go for Proteus. But again, we kind of seen that with Dark Phoenix and Apocalypse.

 

[Alison Blaire]

In X-Men Days of Future Past... it was a big factor. Don't tell me if DOFP didn't feature any cast members from the OT, It would have earned the same?

And with them not coming back for Apocalypse, made it more clear.

There's no excuse for First Class not able to maintain the goodwill when like you said, there's a Deadpool movie that didn't rely on the OT cast and nostalgia factor.

Totally agree

 

[GuestStar2004]

In X-Men Days of Future Past... it was a big factor. Don't tell me if DOFP didn't feature any cast members from the OT, It would have earned the same?

And with them not coming back for Apocalypse, made it more clear.

There's no excuse for First Class not able to maintain the goodwill when like you said, there's a Deadpool movie that didn't rely on the OT cast and nostalgia factor.

Interesting thing is lets say for a moment DOFP success was all the Original Cast, not the FC cast in any shape or form, not the Sci Fi-esk,time travel and robots concept but all the nostalgic factor of the Original Cast that made the money it made... Well as you say... Deadpool still made more with no nostalgia or original cast, so what does that say about this nostalgia or even franchise?

Guardians of the galaxy even did better, it wasn't set on earth, had loads of 80s references and music and while X-Men had wolverine... Guardians had a talking racoon lol

 

[Alison Blaire]

Interesting thing is lets say for a moment DOFP success was all the Original Cast, not the FC cast in any shape or form, not the Sci Fi-esk,time travel and robots concept but all the nostalgic factor of the Original Cast that made the money it made... Well as you say... Deadpool still made more with no nostalgia or original cast, so what does that say about this nostalgia or even franchise?

Guardians of the galaxy even did better, it wasn't set on earth, had loads of 80s references and music and while X-Men had wolverine... Guardians had a talking racoon lol

The problems:

Deadpool: new roles

X-men A: new Teen versions,not new roles.

 

[ImSGirl95]

X-men A: new Teen versions,not new roles.

People can't get used to them characters.
It was love it or hate it during 2000s, and they got back on top with DoFP, that is in 2014, and most people got hyped. And next thing you know: New version of the characters. You have to get use to them all over again.

 

[psylockolussus]

The problems:

Deadpool: new roles

X-men A: new Teen versions,not new roles.

The actors that they hired for the teen version aren't just appealing. I really thought Sophie Turner's fanbase or the fanbase of Jennifer Lawrence would bring more people but eh, didn't even beat the 3-day opening weekend of Origins and X2 which were both released in the last decade.

And the thing about Deadpool is he was fresh to the mainstream viewers. Even though it brought back Ryan Reynolds to the role, his over-all look is so drastic from that Weapon 11 we saw in Origins.

Here, thats not the case. Its another period film with a bunch of younger versions of characters from the OT and prequels rarely outgross its predecessor/s.

For X-Men team films, familiarity is a big thing. Thats why people are hesitant to recast Wolverine. Just look at the reboot film of Spider-Man/Fantastic Four, they are in the shadows of the original films. Spider-Man 4/Fantastic Four 3 would have probably performed better at the box-office if those were made, personally thats what I wanted.

 

[kevork89]

In X-Men Days of Future Past... it was a big factor. Don't tell me if DOFP didn't feature any cast members from the OT, It would have earned the same?

And with them not coming back for Apocalypse, made it more clear.

There's no excuse for First Class not able to maintain the goodwill when like you said, there's a Deadpool movie that didn't rely on the OT cast and nostalgia factor.

The original cast was a factor yes but not as big as you think. DoFP was vey fresh. It had sentinel robots and time travel. No comic book property has touched time travel. There actually hasn't been too many time travel related movies outside terminator and Star Trek. So DoFP felt super fresh. Of course the cast was a factor we all were pumped to see those characters back but the real story lay in the past and it worked the way it did because of that story. Apocalypse could've been a success because they had a fresh clean slate and could've done anything but they went back and did the same thing again. There was nothing stopping Apocalypse being big except Fox didn't think it properly. Deadpool is proof that fresh ideas and interesting character development is a success. It's not just reliant on actors. Because Ryan Reynolds was basically box office poison but this movie was hugely successful. No original cast, Hugh Jackman of FC cast even touched what Deadpool did.

People will watch James, Famke and Halle or Tye, Sophie and Alexandra. It all comes down to story, development and marketing. That's the reason Apocalypse wasn't a success. Like I said they could've made the exact same movie with the original cast. Still would've been a mediocre movie. And I actually loved apocalypse. It was more of the same but it wasn't fresh and that's the downfall.

 

[Nerial]

Interesting thing is lets say for a moment DOFP success was all the Original Cast, not the FC cast in any shape or form, not the Sci Fi-esk,time travel and robots concept but all the nostalgic factor of the Original Cast that made the money it made... Well as you say... Deadpool still made more with no nostalgia or original cast, so what does that say about this nostalgia or even franchise?

Guardians of the galaxy even did better, it wasn't set on earth, had loads of 80s references and music and while X-Men had wolverine... Guardians had a talking racoon lol

And also, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. No one expected it to be a big hit and, although CA got a little popularity due to the first Avengers movie, it wasn't enough to justify The Winter Soldier's box office success.

The one thing Deadpool, Guardians and TWS have in common--they all had great scripts. There is the formula. You want to bet on something, bet on that.

Here's the bottom line--Apocalypse just wasn't very good. I know there are good moments; I was grinning big during Quicksilver's scene and LOVED the opening scene in Egypt. But overall, the script was weak, there were so many characters that no one got a decent arc--none of it coalesced. None of the victories felt earned (and don't get me started on how Magneto could haphazardly murder thousands of people, and then get PRAISED for helping to take down Apocalypse at the very last second--what a joke).

Forget about getting rid of Singer--he's proven he can make a solid X-movie (X1, X2, DOFP, and was greatly involved in FC). Fire Kinberg. There's your weak link. When he's on his A-game, he's good, but there's no telling when that will be. He's so inconsistent, and when he doesn't know what to do, he just decides to kill people and create melodrama. He's so overrated--he has to go.

You want to good X-men movie? First and foremost, it's about the writing. If you have a solid script, the audience will follow. It really is that simple.

 

[jaymes_e06]

People can't get used to them characters.
It was love it or hate it during 2000s, and they got back on top with DoFP, that is in 2014, and most people got hyped. And next thing you know: New version of the characters. You have to get use to them all over again.

Exactly I don't think it's as doom and gloom as some are making it appear.

 

[kevork89]

And also, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. No one expected it to be a big hit and, although CA got a little popularity due to the first Avengers movie, it wasn't enough to justify The Winter Soldier's box office success.

The one thing Deadpool, Guardians and TWS have in common--they all had great scripts. There is the formula. You want to bet on something, bet on that.

Here's the bottom line--Apocalypse just wasn't very good. I know there are good moments; I was grinning big during Quicksilver's scene and LOVED the opening scene in Egypt. But overall, the script was weak, there were so many characters that no one got a decent arc--none of it coalesced. None of the victories felt earned (and don't get me started on how Magneto could haphazardly murder thousands of people, and then get PRAISED for helping to take down Apocalypse at the very last second--what a joke).

Forget about getting rid of Singer--he's proven he can make a solid X-movie (X1, X2, DOFP, and was greatly involved in FC). Fire Kinberg. There's your weak link. When he's on his A-game, he's good, but there's no telling when that will be. He's so inconsistent, and when he doesn't know what to do, he just decides to kill people and create melodrama. He's so overrated--he has to go.

You want to good X-men movie? First and foremost, it's about the writing. If you have a solid script, the audience will follow. It really is that simple.

Yep

 

[GuestStar2004]

For X-Men team films, familiarity is a big thing.

Yes and Deadpool certainly showed how important that was, although wasn't one of the criticisms for apocalypse that it was to familiar?

 

[RLAAMJR.]

The old cast are better.

 

[GuestStar2004]

The old cast are better.

You switch opinions more times then anything

 

[Justice4#Rouge]

Soo what has X:A done at the box office so far? Domestic and internationally?? I dont want to look

 

[2kt09]

Soo what has X:A done at the box office so far? Domestic and internationally?? I dont want to look

Domestic: $119 m
Global: $403 m

 

[superweirdo87]

Origins did do better with worse reviews, but it had huge drops and weaker legs. Reviews may matter more now than they did at that point.

Per hit fix:
Finishing with a lackluster 48% average on Rotten Tomatoes, Apocalypse came up far short of the two previous X-Men films with critics (First Class logged an 87% "Fresh" rating while Days of Future Past came in at an even better 91%), and that likely made a difference with audiences in the social media age, where insta-feedback is the name of the game.
"Movie reviews historically didn't damage the opening weekend of major titles. That was in the days before social media, though," said Box Office Prophets founder David Mumpower. "Now that word spreads so rapidly, in any instance where a blockbuster suffers through some savage reviews, the studio has cause for concern. The under-30 crowd, the bread and butter of movie box office, are savvier than ever. If their friends say something is terrible, they'll spend their money on something else."

Also, I don't think it was a reasonable expectation that XM:A open bigger than DOFP did. A lot of sequels have seen numbers fall, and XM:A had a less interesting premise and weaker reviews than DOFP. That movie had gimmicks, stronger reviews. Time travel vs. destruction of cities. It was also the 3rd superhero movie in 2014 rather than the 4th.


The old cast does have some commercial advantages at home and in some markets, but given other sequels are falling, the cast may not be the only factor in the performance of XM:A. Statistical analyses also show reviews influence box office.

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-quality-vs-box-office-grosses

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Old_Projects/kennedy.pdf

 

[SuperT]

The old cast does have some commercial advantages at home and in some markets, but given other sequels are falling, the cast may not be the only factor in the performance of XM:A.

The cast isn't a factor at all in why Apocalypse is under-performing. This current cast is good - if not great - but if they aren't given good writing material to work with (or writing in general for some characters) there's only so much they're going to be able to do.

It's 2016, at this point unless you're mega level, a single actor or cast does not sell a movie anymore. Even then, some mega actors/casts still can't sell movies to the general public. People are going to see a movie no matter who's in it if it's marketed well, written well and gets great reviews. You could pluck any set of actors into this movie and it would still perform the same and get the exact same reviews because the writing is mediocre.