The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[flickchick85]

Well now that I've seen the film, I'm gonna raise my prediction from $800mil+ to $900mil+, and add that I now think it's VERY likely to hit a billion. This is one of those movies that will get people going back for more, as there are too many awesome moments and lines to take in on first viewing. I feel like I've fried my brain trying to remember them all for the spoiler threads.

 

[demitri_vampiro]

How can you possibly (still) believe that people were *not* "blown away" by Hunger Games? Right now, it's chalking up its FOURTH straight week at #1, was at $322 mill *last* week, and is already in the Top 25 grossing (domestic) movies of all time. And there is *nothing* that is tracking right now between it and May 4 to slow it down. There is every indication that it won't be dethroned from the #1 spot until Avengers, at which time THG will have held the #1 spot for six straight weeks. Six. Straight. Weeks. Think about that for a minute.

wonder why these comic book movies are trying to get released in the summer when there is a lot of competition. why not release a movie in the winter or fall.

 

[Liam_H]

hmm, i guess so. Was wondering if there was another reason though

The first movie will increase the fan base, by how much it remains to be seen. It did so for Twilight while Potter was already popular internationally.

 

[Raiden]

Well now that I've seen the film, I'm gonna raise my prediction from $800mil+ to $900mil+, and add that I now think it's VERY likely to hit a billion. This is one of those movies that will get people going back for more, as there are too many awesome moments and lines to take in on first viewing. I feel like I've fried my brain trying to remember them all for the spoiler threads.

I really hope so. Despite the phenomenal run by THG, do you think The Avengers has a chance to eclipse it or at least match its popularity?

 

[cherokeesam]

wonder why these comic book movies are trying to get released in the summer when there is a lot of competition. why not release a movie in the winter or fall.

Good question.
As more and more genuine blockbusters start cropping up especially in April or even March, I think Hollywood is going to have to revisit the myth of summer. I'm still not so sure a non-holiday fall or winter film could ever hit that big, but spring is definitely catching up to summer as a great season to set up your blockbusters.

 

[SimiOfDoom]

I think when the professional critics´ reviews are out and continue to be positive in general WOM may bring this movie massive success... then my guess is about 800mil, but maybe (hopefully) more.


However I doubt that it will take the OW record solely based on the fact that Harry Potter has a massive fan base and is (at least in europe) much more known than The Avengers...

 

[Saitou Hajime]

wonder why these comic book movies are trying to get released in the summer when there is a lot of competition. why not release a movie in the winter or fall.

Winter and fall for film is basically what Friday is for TV. Spring is getting more focus simply because Hollywood is finding more ways to push summer even earlier.

 

[hatebox]

So it seems like a billion+ dollars is in the bag now right?

No, it's not a lock. But with Asia's love of 3D it's certainly possible.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

No, it's not a lock. But with Asia's love of 3D it's certainly possible.

It IS a lock in my opinion. Because that's just how I feel about it.

Honestly nothing is ever a "lock" to make a billion dollars, not even The Hobbit. The only movie guaranteed to make a billion dollars this year is Titanic.

 

[hatebox]

Honestly nothing is ever a "lock" to make a billion dollars, not even The Hobbit.

You're absolutely right. So saying TA is a 'lock' defeats the point of the term, even if you believe it'll reach that milestone. I'm 95% sure TDKR will hit 400m domestic, but I still wouldn't call it a lock.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

You're absolutely right. So saying TA is a 'lock' defeats the point of the term, even if you believe it'll reach that milestone.

When I say that, what I mean is that I'm so confident about it that even though it's not guaranteed, I'm willing to go out on a limb and treat it like it is. Therefor The Avengers is a lock to make a billion. See what I mean?

 

[Shadowlord X]

Good question.
As more and more genuine blockbusters start cropping up especially in April or even March, I think Hollywood is going to have to revisit the myth of summer. I'm still not so sure a non-holiday fall or winter film could ever hit that big, but spring is definitely catching up to summer as a great season to set up your blockbusters.

Which is really good thing. Hopefully it means summer films will get a little breathing room to flourish at the BO.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm starting to think that WB should release The Man of Steel in March. If a March film can make over 500mil worldwide why not go for it? They will have less comp that way.

Anyway I don't like predicting international because I'm **** at it but I still don't see The Avengers making 400mil domestically. I'm thinking like 360mil because of the 3D tickets, give or take a few mil.

 

[BigThor]

I'm starting to think that WB should release The Man of Steel in March. If a March film can make over 500mil worldwide why not go for it? They will have less comp that way.

Very good point

 

[demitri_vampiro]

LotR were released in the winter and made a lot of money. i dont think you need a vacation date or month to make big bucks at the box office. and i always thought that because of bad weather during fall and/or winter, there is nothing else to do but to see a movie. and even if due to working days the movie might not be fast at making money, it could still reach high amounts due to low competition and thus have good legs.

 

[ElMariachi]

Im curious why Avengers domestic estimates are so low. Iron Man 2 made over 300 million here without 3D ticket bump. Wouldnt the hype, advertising, and reviews push it much higher than IM2?

 

[BigThor]

Im curious why Avengers domestic estimates are so low. Iron Man 2 made over 300 million here without 3D ticket bump. Wouldnt the hype, advertising, and reviews push it much higher than IM2?

Yes it should and it will, I say f*** the estimates. t:

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Im curious why Avengers domestic estimates are so low. Iron Man 2 made over 300 million here without 3D ticket bump. Wouldnt the hype, advertising, and reviews push it much higher than IM2?

Yes. Easily.

 

[Godzilla2000]

For God's sake this movie hasn't even opened here in the U.S. and you guys are worried?

 

[flickchick85]

I really hope so. Despite the phenomenal run by THG, do you think The Avengers has a chance to eclipse it or at least match its popularity?

Well, I don't think it will be at #1 for as many weeks as THG simply because it will have much bigger competition coming out in the weeks that follow its release, but I do think it should have no problem beating its WW gross and have a chance at rivaling its domestic gross in the long run. We'll just have to see, but I do expect Avengers to have very good legs.

 

[Wyrminarrd]

I just bought my ticket to the movie, on the 27th of april. I got lucky as a luxury theater near were I live never shows movies in 3D so I can see it in good old fashioned 2D

Also noticed a funny thing that they are doing now, it used to be so that you paid X amount for the ticket and included in that was all the popcorn you could eat and cola you could drink. Now they've split the price of the ticket into two with half being for the ticket and half for the popcorn and cola. So I guess the price I paid to see the movie will only count half as much towards The Avengers world wide take.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well, I don't think it will be at #1 for as many weeks as THG simply because it will have much bigger competition coming out in the weeks that follow its release, but I do think it should have no problem beating its WW gross and have a chance at rivaling its domestic gross in the long run. We'll just have to see, but I do expect Avengers to have very good legs.

I see both Battleship and MIB III as potential mega-flops, so even if Avengers doesn't hold the no 1 spot for 4 weeks, it could easily match the weekly numbers HG has made.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Lol Wyrminarrd I can assure you that the all-you-can-eat-and-drink policy doesnt exist here in the US.

 

[Shadowlord X]

The thing with THE AVENGERS is, all that is needed is to get people in there for huge opening weekend. We KNOW the movie is BRILLIANT so the people who see it will be thrilled and will go out and spread the great word of mouth. I expect that there will be a phenomenon and interest in those movies will suffer as a result. MARVEL and DISNEY just need to ramp up the marketing in the next 2-3 weeks to get that opening weekend as HUGE as possible.

Listen to the people who have seen it. This movie is an EPIC CINEMATIC EVENT!!!!!!! It doesn't need to fear the competition; the competition needs to fear it!

 

[Raiden]

The thing with THE AVENGERS is, all that is needed is to get people in there for huge opening weekend. We KNOW the movie is BRILLIANT so the people who see it will be thrilled and will go out and spread the great word of mouth. I expect that there will be a phenomenon and interest in those movies will suffer as a result. MARVEL and DISNEY just need to ramp up the marketing in the next 2-3 weeks to get that opening weekend as HUGE as possible.

Listen to the people who have seen it. This movie is an EPIC CINEMATIC EVENT!!!!!!! It doesn't need to fear the competition; the competition needs to fear it!

Yeah, The Avengers is the real deal, and once more and more people learn about it, it will become a freight train at the box office for sure. I think Battleship and MIB3 will pose some competition, but I believe TA will stampede against any and all challengers because it appears to be a genuinely good movie, and it will reap all that it sows this summer.