The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[T"Challa]

I meant to ask this before if you don't mind..how kid-friendly is the film? What's the minimum age kid you think should be watching this?

Thats an interesting question. there are certainly a lot of scenes in this i wouldnt rush to show my kid if i had one. Loki says and does some pretty psychotic stuff at points in the movie.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

It's about building an audience. Batman Begins had a fairly modest Box office take, but obviously had good legs, and good word of mouth, to where it brought what TDK did in the second installment.

Iron Man at the time was the second biggest opening for a non sequel (now 3rd thanks to hunger games) but Iron man's cultural awareness was pretty limited. I'm about as big of an IM fan as you can find, and I thought the film would do in the 70's or so opening weekend. Obviously it did much better and had great legs despite going up against Chronicles of Narnia and Indy 4 in the following weeks. If it had the luxury as TDK had of weeks of no competition, I think it would have made 400 million.

Spider-man had built-in name recognition and plus after the tragedy of 9-11, I think the country was ready for a movie like that. About heroism and self sacrifice.

However, Avengers is to the point now it's beyond needing someone like Spider-man in it. In fact I think having Spider-man would be a detraction from what the story is. Spider-man was never an Avenger (although I think he was considered a long standing "reserve"), until the New Avengers came out about 10 years ago.

So really I don't see anything holding back this film. I expect it at minimum to out gross all the other Marvel Studio films, but I really think this could be one for the record books. But there's no predictor on that.

Clearly from reviews that have come out already from folks who considered TDK the gold standard have at least put Avengers in that catagory, if not outright on top.

Agreed.

 

[Iceman]

$400 M domestic isn't looking impossible, and $1 Billion ww is completely on the table.


After several years of the team's popularity being in the gutter in the 90s, I never thought I'd live to see the day where The Avengers not only surpassed X-Men, but Spider-Man as well as Marvel's flagship franchise.

It's simple math though I guess; Marvel's #2, 4, 5, and 6 most popular characters combined in 1 film.

I said earlier that the floor for me is $300m, $400m I expect and I wouldn't be surprised by $500m+. £300m is what I'd expect if reviews and wom were horrible and marketing lax for the last few weeks leading up to release and none of that is looking likely at the moment. $400m if reviews are great, $500m if it gets like 95% & 8.9/10 on RT and a tonne of repeat business.

Btw out of interest what order do you put the guys at 2,4,5 & 6?

Kids are going to be beside themselves. I can't imagine how I would have felt if I had seen this as a kid

Idk about minimum age, there's a few deaths that might freak them out but if you'd let them watch something like Star Wars or Spider-Man this should be fine

Thanks. It's a shame I can't experience any of these current films as a kid any more. I think this would have matched watching Jurassic Park as a kid.

 

[Iceman]

Thats an interesting question. there are certainly a lot of scenes in this i wouldnt rush to show my kid if i had one. Loki says and does some pretty psychotic stuff at points in the movie.

Oh I heard he's really brutal in this! Don't want to scar any kids emotionally out there lol. I remember someone showing me Silence of the Lambs as a kid

 

[KangConquers]

I said earlier that the floor for me is $300m, $400m I expect and I wouldn't be surprised by $500m+. £300m is what I'd expect if reviews and wom were horrible and marketing lax for the last few weeks leading up to release and none of that is looking likely at the moment. $400m if reviews are great, $500m if it gets like 95% & 8.9/10 on RT and a tonne of repeat business.

Btw out of interest what order do you put the guys at 2,4,5 & 6?
Thanks. It's a shame I can't experience any of these current films as a kid any more. I think this would have matched watching Jurassic Park as a kid.

Though many would argue this with me, I put Iron Man as Marvel's #2 character behind Spider-Man, above Wolverine.


From there on out, it's tough to say. Hulk was the most famous going into these movies but the least successful in the movies. Thor was the least famous going in but the most successful in the movies. I'd go Cap, Hulk, Thor for the rest, but that's just me.

 

[Iceman]

Though many would argue this with me, I put Iron Man as Marvel's #2 character behind Spider-Man, above Wolverine.


From there on out, it's tough to say. Hulk was the most famous going into these movies but the least successful in the movies. Thor was the least famous going in but the most successful in the movies. I'd go Cap, Hulk, Thor for the rest, but that's just me.

For some reason I thought you weren't counting the film universes which would of course boost IM right near the top and drag Hulk down a couple of notches. Also Cap & Thor get put in by default as most of the other Marvel based movies outside of the top 6 & Marvel Studios have been really bad! (Classically (as you know) Iron Man and Thor are further afield but Cap & Hulk are still near the top).

In sum having 4 of Marvel's biggest solo characters in a real team (not one set up for film for eg) can't go wrong!

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Posted this in the news and spec. thread:

 

[Iceman]

For some reason I thought you weren't counting the film universes which would of course boost IM right near the top and drag Hulk down a couple of notches. Also Cap & Thor get put in by default as most of the other Marvel based movies outside of the top 6 & Marvel Studios have been really bad! (Classically (as you know) Iron Man and Thor are further afield but Cap & Hulk are still near the top).

In sum, like you say, having 4 of Marvel's biggest solo characters in a real team (not one set up for film for eg) can't go wrong!

 

[Iceman]

Posted this in the news and spec. thread:

This is after 3 weeks right? t:

You're really good at this fake editing stuff!

 

[TheGambler]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...-312398?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Just WOW. I just can't wait to see the film!

 

[Raiden]

Posted this in the news and spec. thread:

Amazing job, JB! Did you use Photoshop to create this fake page for RT? I wish I were as proficient with the program as you do.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Amazing job, JB! Did you use Photoshop to create this fake page for RT? I wish I were as proficient with the program as you do.

No just MS Paint, it's pretty simple actually.

 

[Iceman]

No just MS Paint, it's pretty simple actually.

I really want to click on those link stories. t:

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

You will some day

 

[Doctor Jones]

Wow, I did not expect it could possibly open this big. I was thinking around north of $130 million.

Well I'm glad it could be putting all of those, "Well Thor and Cap didn't make as much as Iron Man so it could effect the interest of the movie and box office" theories to rest.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Yeah... This movie will make a lot of money.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah, I knew this was going to be an event type film, just as I knew TDK had that feeling as well. This is something that really has never been done before, and you even had people at WB making public statements saying how the "shared universe" thing doesn't work (mostly to justify why WB isn't doing this). It was like they were throwing down the gauntlet and Marvel/Disney stepped up to the challenge.

After Disney has what will likely be the biggest flop of 2012 in John Carter, where the budget was north of 250 million, this will be a huge saving grace for them.

I think Disney is realizing that their subsidiaries in Pixar and Marvel are doing far better than WDP of promoting in house items. Now WDP did have the success of all the Pirates films, so I'm not saying that they should totally jump ship, but I think it's unlikely that WDP will dump money into projects like John Carter, and leave that to their subsidiaries.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Wow, I did not expect it could possibly open this big. I was thinking around north of $130 million.

Well I'm glad it could be putting all of those, "Well Thor and Cap didn't make as much as Iron Man so it could effect the interest of the movie and box office" theories to rest.

Yeah, definitely.

And I always wanted to say that I love your avy; a classic scene from Batman Returns (my fav DC superhero movie).

 

[Nokio]

I hoping for the best but I don't wanna jinx it and say it's going to make a massive amount. You never know how the mainstream will react to a film. Never assume.

 

[marcvader]

Is there a proposed date for TA2 yet?

 

[StanKirby]

Hope It reaches 1 billion. Insanely excited for this.

 

[Xeno]

Thats an interesting question. there are certainly a lot of scenes in this i wouldnt rush to show my kid if i had one. Loki says and does some pretty psychotic stuff at points in the movie.

Very true. Hiddleston embodied the kind of menace that could give a kid nightmares. There were some young kids at the screening I attended, and afterwards I worried that Loki might have scared them witless. Before The Avengers came out some people were slamming it as "light, a popcorn movie," etc., but this film is far darker than many might expect.

 

[Xeno]

Hope It reaches 1 billion. Insanely excited for this.

Hi, StanKirby! You have a terrific username. Welcome to the Hype. The more fans, the merrier!

 

[Xeno]

Is there a proposed date for TA2 yet?

Not yet, but I have my fingers crossed for May 16, 2014.

 

[Raiden]

Not yet, but I have my fingers crossed for May 16, 2014.

No way will TA2 opens on May 16, 2014. Cap 2 has already been confirmed to be released on April 4, 2014, and there is another yet-to-be-announced movie later that year. TA2 will likely be the only Marvel Studios movie for the year, like the first one did, and I think the likely date for the sequel's premiere will be in May of 2015.