The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Mysteryman]

I feel the same way.
The quality of the film is more important to me than the Box Office Horse Race .

 

[Poni_Boy]

This is the box office thread. You know, the place to talk about box office

Exactly. Why do people come here to complain about box office comparisons? This thread was created so that these comparisons can be made separate from standard news and speculation? It's absolutely relevant.

 

[kedrell]

Have been scanning other sites for opinions on THG; quite interestingly I have heard other people comment on the mediocre quality CGI making the movie look like something from the sci-fi channel.

I've heard it elsewhere as well:

http://moviebob.blogspot.com/2012/03/escape-to-movies-hunger-games.html

 

[Poni_Boy]

The CGI is not SyFy level bad at all. That's a gross exaggeration from people who probably don't watch anything on SyFy but like using the stigma since it sounds catchy and in the know. But I will say that the CGI in the Capitol scenes (the only place where it's prevalent) could have used a lot more polishing an is reminiscent of the Star Wars prequels; which is still way better than anything SyFy puts out.

My main issue with the film was pacing in the second half. But neither that nor the CG iffyness took away from the film as a whole. It definitely deserves accolades, especially Lawrence, and the money it's raking in.

 

[Raiden]

Exactly. Why do people come here to complain about box office comparisons? This thread was created so that these comparisons can be made separate from standard news and speculation? It's absolutely relevant.

Yeah, like it or not people will be comparing TA to all the top blockbusters of the year, because it is by definition one of the movies that the studios and the audience are perceiving as having the potential to be in the top three or five highest-grossing movies of 2012. Seeing that THG appears to be meeting its expectations at the box office, I want TA to do likewise and even exceeding it. If the movie is great, I don't think it will be a problem.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yeah, like it or not people will be comparing TA to all the top blockbusters of the year, because it is by definition one of the movies that the studios and the audience are perceiving as having the potential to be in the top three or five highest-grossing movies of 2012. Seeing that THG appears to be meeting its expectations at the box office, I want TA to do likewise and even exceeding it. If the movie is great, I don't think it will be a problem.

Haven't heard any reason not to think so to date. I'll be seeing it in two weeks and will then throw my hat into the BO guesstimation ring


But I do know the merchandise for this film will be selling like hot cakes for the entirety of the year. If there are any records for that they would be broken.

 

[Green Day]

All I'm gonna say is, I'm pretty The Avengers is going to be much bigger than The Hunger Games.

*shrugs*

If THG makes a 150m+ OW it will be close. Good for THG, I am glad it doing well, I really enjoyed THG. It is a good movie.

 

[Raiden]

Haven't heard any reason not to think so to date. I'll be seeing it in two weeks and will then throw my hat into the BO guesstimation ring


But I do know the merchandise for this film will be selling like hot cakes for the entirety of the year. If there are any records for that they would be broken.

Whoa, two weeks? I'm insanely jealous.

I hope you'll tell us what you feel about the film without breaking whatever confidentiality agreement you signed before watching it in the screening, and whether you think it has a good chance to be one of the very top-grossing movies of the year.

 

[hatebox]

There's a very real chance that THG will beat TDK's opening weekend. It may also be larger than TA's opening too.

Who the hell saw that coming?!

 

[Mysteryman]

Deadline.com puts the current estimate at $155 million .
I think TDK is safe .

 

[Poni_Boy]

Whoa, two weeks? I'm insanely jealous.

I hope you'll tell us what you feel about the film without breaking whatever confidentiality agreement you signed before watching it in the screening, and whether you think it has a good chance to be one of the very top-grossing movies of the year.

It's going to be a tough year. Hopefully it makes it into the top five. contenders are:

Hunger Games

Twilight

TDK

The Hobbit

Prometheus

Avengers

Brave

...did I miss any?

EDIT: Amazing Spider-Man

 

[Mysteryman]

They made a comment over at Deadline that the TV advertising didnt include any actual footage of The Hunger Games competition itself .
Meaning that almost half the film was left unseen by the audience going in.
In an age where the best shots are plastered on to the ads and trailers,
That is pretty shrewd marketing and it has appeared to have paid off big time .

 

[Poni_Boy]

They made a comment over at Deadline that the TV advertising didnt include any actual footage of The Hunger Games competition itself .
Meaning that almost half the film was left unseen by the audience going in.
In an age where the best shots are plastered on to the ads and trailers,
That is pretty shrewd marketing and it has appeared to have paid off big time .

Yep, the only scenes that hinted at the Games were when they all took off at the starting line and Katniss taking a bow shot. Aside from that audiences when in blind. (PS - I love that)

Personally I felt the film started loosing it's steam once the Games began at the halfway point. The first half was brilliant though.

 

[Splat]

No MCU movie has opened as big as the Hunger Games so I won't be surprised if the Avengers doesn't beat the Hunger Games.

 

[PowerPacked]

No MCU movie has opened as big as the Hunger Games so I won't be surprised if the Avengers doesn't beat the Hunger Games.

Boxoffice.com guessed a 155 opening weekend, and their predictions are more or less correct. Actually, their guesses are usually a bit lower than the actual results (55 mil opening for Cap, when it opened for 65 million, with a total of 150 domestic when it made 176, HP grossing a total of 1.2 billion when it made 1.3 billion, though they were about 3 million high on their Thor opening weekend prediction).

Avengers should put up a good enough fight.

 

[Iron_Stark]

I'll just stick with The Running Man.

Lol when I saw a commercial for that movie, I was thinking the same thing. That totally looks like the Running Man, except for no Arnold and no Richard Dawson.

 

[Mysteryman]

If TA opens better internationally than the other Marvel movies have,
That will give be a pretty sure fire sign that it will do well domestically .
Just something to look out for.

 

[kedrell]

Lol when I saw a commercial for that movie, I was thinking the same thing. That totally looks like the Running Man, except for no Arnold and no Richard Dawson.

And no gruesome action scenes with guys getting cut in half with chain saws.

 

[Pond]

Are the books in USA really big? They don really in Europe... At least not in Spain.

 

[kedrell]

Apparently, although they totally flew under my radar all this time.

 

[kedrell]

I have always wondered just when did the change come about that in order for kids/young adults to be interested in a pop culture property like, say... a book series for example that the characters(or at least the main characters)in said property needed to be a juvenile(s) themselves. Now there have always been exceptions but for the longest time this was not the norm. Take The Hobbit for example, not a juvenile to be found in it. And most superhero properties also were kids reading about the adventures of an adult(s). It just seems today that it has become much more rare and to make a film based on a property in this day and age(where the film is meant to skew to a younger audience) then what you're adapting generally needs to be something like a half century old or more if you don't want most of the characters to be kids. Anyway, it just seems oddly disconcerting to me. Kids in the past had no big issue with following the exploits of adult characters just fine. And this is why today whenever I hear "based of a young adult..." anything I just tend to zone out immediately.

 

[hatebox]

From what I gather The Hunger Games is really just like any other thriller/dystopian novel - the Young Adult tag is nothing more than a marketing gimmick (and one that's worked very well). The books themselves are quite brutal, apparently.

 

[kedrell]

The main characters are still primarily juvenile.

 

[Poni_Boy]

From what I gather The Hunger Games is really just like any other thriller/dystopian novel - the Young Adult tag is nothing more than a marketing gimmick (and one that's worked very well). The books themselves are quite brutal, apparently.

No it's a blatant young adult novel. The themes and characterizations in the books are focused on being accessible to teens.

 

[hatebox]

The main characters are still primarily juvenile.

Well... yes. But I think in the case of Potter and THG the protagonists being young is the point. In theory it makes what they go through all the more intense.

I appreciate your point about film characters seeming to get younger, but as TDK and Avatar's success demonstrate the kids haven't completely taken over yet.