The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Is there alot of anticipation for this in the general public? How is that gauged?
 
 
That Prometheus trailer makes me want a Dead Space movie real bad!
 
JB-the-Hunter said:
count the views > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPoHPNeU9fc

compared to some other anticipated movies:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0k3kHtyoqc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GokKUqLcvD8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgssLmsOa2s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XayxMPrUP4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sftuxbvGwiU

Also this > http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mar...ts/new_avengers_trailer_breaks_itunes_record/
Click to expand...


The iTunes record is impressive.
Anything about Youtube views is not.
For one thing, trailers are usually scattered all over Youtube, so that you probably have easily a hundred or more uploads of the same damn trailer, and that tends to diffuse views. In other words, if there was one *true* central YT trailer site, Avengers (and any other movie you want to pick) might actually have a LOT more interest than what's shown.

Conversely, a trailer's YT hits only mean that's how many times fanboys go back and rewatch a trailer. I know people who watch the same trailer again and again and again, not just to pick out new details or minutiae, but simply to spam the site.

Consider this Immortals trailer:

[YT]7VdONYkKFmQ[/YT]

24.3 million hits (plus how many ever extras you just did by clicking the link....:oldrazz:) sounds damn impressive. The $83 million domestic box office the movie actually scraped together doesn't.
 
cherokeesam said:
Consider this Immortals trailer:

[YT]7VdONYkKFmQ[/YT]

24.3 million hits (plus how many ever extras you just did by clicking the link....:oldrazz:) sounds damn impressive. The $83 million domestic box office the movie actually scraped together doesn't.
Click to expand...

Considering the 75 million dollar budget of the film, 83 millions dollars isn't bad at all.
 
It either broke even or made a small profit.
Either way , it doesnt sound like a breakout hit to me .
 
BigThor said:
Considering the 75 million dollar budget of the film, 83 millions dollars isn't bad at all.
Click to expand...


Yeah, but if you go by the (ludicrous) implied premise that Youtube hits translates to box office dollars, the $83 million that 24.3 million YT hits generated for Immortals would equal about $69 million at the box office for Avengers' 20 million trailer views. I don't think that's what Marvel Studios is aiming for. ;)
 
Yeah, the Thor trailer had more view than Ghost Protocol and Sherlock Holmes but it had much less box office success.
 
T"Challa;22791617 said:
Yeah, the Thor trailer had more view than Ghost Protocol and Sherlock Holmes but it had much less box office success.
Click to expand...

And Thor had more competition than those plus it was a brand new non-sequel film rather than the next film in an already established franchise. There are loads of variables to account for. That said, I agree that youtube views of a particular trailer are really not a good judge for how any film will do. By comparison the I-Tunes download record is a better benchmark(though that hardly is undeniable proof either).
 
Well, as we get closer to a release date,
We might get better tracking numbers.
Other than that ,
We wont really know how it will do until it begins to open internationally.
Still, it is nice to know that people are viewing the trailers.
 
For me the best indicators so far are:

1: The post-Superbowl evaluation. The superbwol had a record 103 million viewers. The evaluation showed that 79% remembered THE AVENGERS spot (2nd highest; 1st was SW:TPM3D with 80%) and 40% said they wanted to see it.

2: The two-in-a-row i-tunes record breaker for the 2 trailers, especially the theatrical trailer which showed maintained interest.

3: The > 100,000 likes on YouTube. I'm not sure but I assume that someone can only vote once.

4: Personal observation from non-CB-fans. Comments from such as "It's all oevr facebook!" in ref. to the theatrical trailer.
 
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Shadowlord X said:
For me the best indicators so far are:

1: The post-Superbowl evaluation. The superbwol had a record 103 million viewers. The evaluation showed that 79% remembered THE AVENGERS spot (2nd highest; 1st was SW:TPM3D with 80%) and 40% said they wanted to see it.

2: The two-in-a-row i-tunes record breaker for the 2 trailers, especially the theatrical trailer which showed maintained interest.

3: The > 100,000 likes on YouTube. I'm not sure but I assume that someone can only vote once.

4: Personal observation from non-CB-fans.
Click to expand...

pretty much this.

But the real indicator shouuld be the tracking numbers which we should be getting in the coming weeks (i hope) and since the movie opens overseas about a week before the domestic release, we should get some numbers on the foreign box office to really gauge the interest levels
 
Shadowlord X said:
For me the best indicators so far are:

1: The post-Superbowl evaluation. The superbwol had a record 103 million viewers. The evaluation showed that 79% remembered THE AVENGERS spot (2nd highest; 1st was SW:TPM3D with 80%) and 40% said they wanted to see it.

2: The two-in-a-row i-tunes record breaker for the 2 trailers, especially the theatrical trailer which showed maintained interest.

3: The > 100,000 likes on YouTube. I'm not sure but I assume that someone can only vote once.

4: Personal observation from non-CB-fans. Comments from such as "It's all oevr facebook!" in ref. to the theatrical trailer.
Click to expand...

This IS true. # of Views on the other hand is quite unreliable.

And if you're #1 holds true to the end then that alone would account for about $275M in ticket sales.
 
Alot of this will depend on the critic scores, but even a crappily rated movie like Transformers can make a boatload of money.

In all likelyhood I think this will probably come close to or break the DH record, but I think the film will be fairly front loaded as well, as there's alot of new movies coming out this summer.

Because Hunger games did so well for the middle of March, I think people are starting to return to the theaters, plus there will be a 3D boost, but also this is a big event type movie and from the previews it's definitely got that Transformers, big action feel, and looks alot more intelligent than a movie like Battleship.

If the movie gets good critical response, I think the box office response will be through the roof. There may be a large drop, but it's going to open huge.
 
I don't think this will be that frontloaded. The competition so far isn't looking that great.
Darkshadows, Battleship, and MIB 3 have all had rather muted to 'bleh' responses from the GA.

How much legs THE AVENGERS will have will depend on 2 things:
- How much non-CB fans/MCU fans like the movie and the good WOM that will spread from that.
- Overall critics reviews that may or may not inspire the very casually interested to check it out/give it a chance.
 
Mysteryman said:
It either broke even or made a small profit.
Either way , it doesnt sound like a breakout hit to me .
Click to expand...

Ahhh, but the film's world wide gross was over 226 million so I'm pretty sure that's alot more than "breaking even".
 
I dont think that we can expect Immortals II any time soon.
It doesnt matter, I was just talking about what I perceive the box office for Immortals to be .
I dont think it reflects what will happen with The Avengers .
But,I still dont believe trailer downloads correctly indicate future box office success .
 
Trailer views on Youtube are sort of useless

The likes that a trailer gets on Youtube speaks volumes, though
 
Yes, until youtube can guage unique views it's completely useless.
 
cherokeesam said:
Yeah, but if you go by the (ludicrous) implied premise that Youtube hits translates to box office dollars, the $83 million that 24.3 million YT hits generated for Immortals would equal about $69 million at the box office for Avengers' 20 million trailer views. I don't think that's what Marvel Studios is aiming for. ;)
Click to expand...

That trailer is well over a year old, however.

24 million views over the course of 1 year =/= 21 million over the course of five weeks.
 
I'm not too concerned with the box office numbers. Do I want it to do well? Of course, but I have no doubt it'll do well enough to green light a sequel.
 
I just found a huge piece of evidence supporting the idea that this film will do 900-1.1 billion.

Take a look at these guesses from past films.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=22795729&postcount=769

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=365899

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=362157&page=3

We've been consistently within the ballpark of the actual grosses in the past. With this thread averaging around 900-1.1 billion on average, this is a pretty strong indicator.
 
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