The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[warcam]

I voted $800 million + (split evenly between domestic & foreign). Although $1 billion would be nice, $800 million is definitely nothing to sneeze at.

 

[The Morningstar]

Same here. Around 800 mill, give or take. I think anything above 700 million should be considered a success. I mean, that would have double it's production budget and then some.

If it doesn't do much better than IM2 then yea, I think that would be a pretty big disappointment.

 

[TheGambler]

Same here. Around 800 mill, give or take. I think anything above 700 million should be considered a success. I mean, that would have double it's production budget and then some.

If it doesn't do much better than IM2 then yea, I think that would be a pretty big disappointment.

I don't think anything over $600M is a disappointment, to be honest. But considering the hype and all that, it should do big numbers no matter what.

 

[The Morningstar]

If it doesn't make more than Iron Mans solo movies? Yea that would be a massive disappointment. It would have made all this building up of the other characters and the team aspect pointless really, if Iron Man on his own makes just as much.

Plus the budget is over 200 million, perhaps even 300 million. It needs to double that just to make a profit.

So say it's 300 million, 600 million would just be breaking even.

 

[TheGambler]

The budget is not $300M. Around $220M. Add probably $100M for marketing and Avengers would need to make $540M to be a success.

And why would it be pointless? Just because it didn't make as much money as IM2? I look at the quality of the film first, then box office numbers, which are only important for sequels.

 

[The Morningstar]

Well that's the point. If Avengers is a disappointment financially, it puts a massive spanner in the works for Marvel Studios.

Marvel Studios can't afford a bomb. One bomb and the whole house of cards could come tumbling down.

 

[TheGambler]

Yeah, definitely. But everything worked pretty well for them so far, and I don't think Avengers will be a bomb at all. It should do great business at the box office.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Same here. Around 800 mill, give or take. I think anything above 700 million should be considered a success. I mean, that would have double it's production budget and then some.

If it doesn't do much better than IM2 then yea, I think that would be a pretty big disappointment.

I can't agree with this. That's barely profitable.

DISNEY and MARVEL will be expecting more.

Greater than $800 million will be acceptable to them, but I think they are expecting this to be much bigger than that; hence my earlier posts.

 

[Shadowlord X]

I think the pre-screenings have been so positive that both MARVEL and DISNEY are really, really confident. I'm obviously not certain, but I think that they have also screened the movie to their product partners (who are pleased) and this has facilitated that recent massive investment by those companies for the overseas marketing.

 

[kedrell]

I can't agree with this. That's barely profitable.

DISNEY and MARVEL will be expecting more.

Greater than $800 million will be acceptable to them, but I think they are expecting this to be much bigger than that; hence my earlier posts.

700M is more than 'barely profitable'. The movie's production budget is $220M(at least that's what we can verify). So 2X $220M would make this 'barely profitable' if it makes Thor numbers WW $450M(and that's not even counting ancillary markets like home media and TV rights). 2.5X is about where it becomes profitable enough to be sequel worthy. That'd be at $550M WW, which is still less than both Iron Man films. 700M is another 150M passed the point it'd need to be at to get a sequel.

 

[The Morningstar]

The marketing is at least 100 million. Let's just say all and all, the cost of this movie is around 300 million. It's gotta double that just to break even. So, as i already said, 700 million would make them a tidy profit.

If this movie makes no more than IM2 though, i can't see how it will be looked at as anything less than a major disappointment, profit or not. All this build up, 5 years in the making, sacrificing plots for the other movies, massive hype... and it makes the same as IM2?

But like i said, i'm confident it'll make around 800 million.

 

[kedrell]

And I'm still in the billion dollar club for this one. But if it just made $625M WW Then I really wouldn't complain. At that point it's become profitable, made enough to secure a sequel and passed all of Marvel Studios other film's grosses WW. That's plenty to be happy about.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I can't agree with this. That's barely profitable.

DISNEY and MARVEL will be expecting more.

Greater than $800 million will be acceptable to them, but I think they are expecting this to be much bigger than that; hence my earlier posts.

If the film makes, say 750 million, it'll be a disappointment? How? It's already made more than Iron Man 2, and it'll be Marvel Studios' highest grossing film ever released.

It's not like Thor and Captain America raked in the same numbers that Iron Man and Iron Man 2 did.

I think people place too much importance on The Billion Dollar Club. In my honest opinion, The Avengers doesn't need to make a billion dollars to be a massive success.

750-800 million is a huge deal. I mean look at the Transformers franchise. It took the third film of the series to finally break the billion dollar barrier, but Transformers and Transformers: ROTF were easily the most memorable movies of their respective summer releases.

 

[kedrell]

The marketing is at least 100 million. Let's just say all and all, the cost of this movie is around 300 million. It's gotta double that just to break even. So, as i already said, 700 million would make them a tidy profit.

If this movie makes no more than IM2 though, i can't see how it will be looked at as anything less than a major disappointment, profit or not. All this build up, 5 years in the making, sacrificing plots for the other movies, massive hype... and it makes the same as IM2?

But like i said, I'm confident it'll make around 800 million.

Unless they over spend a ridiculous amount on marketing(like 150-200M that some reports said about the GL movie) then it's usually the production budget and the ad budget & exhibitor costs. The ad budget + exhibitor costs is roughly the same as the production budget so 2X the production budget is a good ballpark of when a film starts being profitable(from it's theatrical release anyway). So $220M production budget means it breaks even at $440M. Of course there are always variables unique to each film but all too often we aren't privy to that info so speculation is all we're left with.

 

[Shadowlord X]

I'm going with $300 million as the production budget because that's what KF said in a magazine.

This means > $600 million WW to make a profit over the production budget. The initial marketing budget is unknown to me and that recently got a $100 million addition for overseas marketing. Let's assume that the total marketing budget comes up to $150 million. So total budget is $450 million.

So now we need > $900 million to be profitable.

If my maths is wrong I'm happy to admit it, but that's how I see it based upon the info available.

 

[flickchick85]

I'm pretty sure when they say "a movie needs to double it's budget to break even," it's partially because of the marketing costs that that's true (and partially because of other factors obviously). So you shouldn't be ADDING the marketing costs to the budget and then doubling that. IF The Avengers budget is really $300m (which I'm not convinced it is), then it still just needs to make $600m WW to break even.

 

[Quasimod0]

Marvel is confident that this will be a success. So I am too. I could see it making a billion easy.
its a huge film

 

[Donut]

Marvel is confident that this will be a success. So I am too. I could see it making a billion easy.
its a huge film

Avatar set the goal for $2 Billion. $2 Billion is the new $1 Billion

 

[AnneFan]

I think The Avengers will make respectable money. It's been a while since the last 'event' type movie.

 

[BigThor]

Marvel is confident that this will be a success. So I am too. I could see it making a billion easy.
its a huge film

Same here

 

[warhorse78]

I voted for 800 million myself, but with the way OS markets love their big spectacle type movies, I can definitely see this going over a billion.

 

[Marvel]

!!!!!!

 

[kedrell]

I'm pretty sure when they say "a movie needs to double it's budget to break even," it's partially because of the marketing costs that that's true (and partially because of other factors obviously). So you shouldn't be ADDING the marketing costs to the budget and then doubling that. IF The Avengers budget is really $300m (which I'm not convinced it is), then it still just needs to make $600m WW to break even.

Yes. Marketing + exhibitors take is(roughly) = to the production budget(usually). Hence just do a simple 2X the production budget to see what point WW a film breaks even at. EW reported a $220M budget(estimate) for The Avengers and until something more solid comes along that's the figure I'm using. When figuring at what point it justifies a sequel, well then just add another .5X of the production budget on top of that for a good rule of thumb.

 

[kedrell]

Avatar set the goal for $2 Billion. $2 Billion is the new $1 Billion

Avatar actually came much closer to $3 billion. But that's a fluke. $1 billion is still huge. I doubt anyone is seriously expecting ANY movie to do numbers like Avatar or even half that.

 

[BigThor]

Avatar actually came much closer to $3 billion. But that's a fluke. $1 billion is still huge. I doubt anyone is seriously expecting ANY movie to do numbers like Avatar or even half that.

Agreed and if they are their being very irrational.