The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Quasimod0]

Imagine this film making over a billion dollars. Thatd be very good news for us comic book movie fan

 

[BigThor]

Imagine this film making over a billion dollars. Thatd be very good news for us comic book movie fan

Extremely good news

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Avatar actually came much closer to $3 billion. But that's a fluke. $1 billion is still huge. I doubt anyone is seriously expecting ANY movie to do numbers like Avatar or even half that.

Wait until Titanic gets re-released... in 3-D.

 

[Quasimod0]

Wait until Titanic gets re-released... in 3-D.

The phantom menace re-release didnt get me mad. But re-releasing the titanic in 3d? Come on. Thats just terrible money hunger

 

[Moridin]

I think it should easily cross $800m (provided it delivers, of course), good chance of getting up past $900. $1bn is in the reachable-but-best-case-scenario category.

If the film makes, say 750 million, it'll be a disappointment? How? It's already made more than Iron Man 2, and it'll be Marvel Studios' highest grossing film ever released.

The thing is, with 3d prices and expanding markets, matching IM2 numbers (& probably even getting well into the $700m area) would actually be a drop off in attendance.

As long as they make enough to keep going I'm happy, but from that angle I can see why it'd be disappointing even though it would be very successful $$$-wise.

 

[Iceman]

Imagine this film making over a billion dollars. Thatd be very good news for us comic book movie fan

I want it to make something crazy so they keep making Avengers films for 50 years.

 

[Raiden]

Watching how fast THG reaches its 200 mil does worry me a bit, since TA will be out in a month and obviously the expectation will be just as high for it as it was for THG. I hope the movie will be able to meet its challenges and deliver a stellar performance at the box office.

 

[Iceman]

It's also a positive sign that the box office is there for the taking this year. The numbers are out there if a film can do what is necessary to procure them.

 

[samsnee]

Anyone else worried all these special early screenings might hurt the BO? If WOM is bad, then it will spread like wildfire.

 

[Iceman]

Nope. If WOM is bad then it might just not be that good and won't deserve it anyway. I'm hoping for & expecting the opposite of course.

 

[Chewy]

Anyone else worried all these special early screenings might hurt the BO? If WOM is bad, then it will spread like wildfire.

I don't think they would be doing so many early screenings if that were a concern

 

[Cth]

Anyone else worried all these special early screenings might hurt the BO? If WOM is bad, then it will spread like wildfire.

On one hand, yes it can hurt -- look at Serenity. Then gain, to be fair, that was a relatively niche audience comparatively.

Besides, this is a summer event movie, they have more to worry about from piracy than multiple screenings given the release dates.

 

[Chewy]

The last time I remember a big budget summer movie doing this many early screenings was Star Trek

 

[samsnee]

On one hand, yes it can hurt -- look at Serenity. Then gain, to be fair, that was a relatively niche audience comparatively.

Besides, this is a summer event movie, they have more to worry about from piracy than multiple screenings given the release dates.

But multiple screenings would allow for people to bootleg earlier no?

 

[Chewy]

But multiple screenings would allow for people to bootleg earlier no?

Early screenings have really strict security. They don't even let you take your cell phone in

 

[The Morningstar]

Wouldn't that be a sign of confidence from Marvel? Having early screenings? I mean as already mentioned, if it gets a negative response it could kill the movie before it's even landed.

 

[Chewy]

Wouldn't that be a sign of confidence from Marvel? Having early screenings? I mean as already mentioned, if it gets a negative response it could kill the movie before it's even landed.

Yes, it's a huge sign of confidence. Giving away tickets to fans to ten free screenings almost a month before a big studio movie opens is almost unheard of.

 

[Raiden]

Yes, it's a huge sign of confidence. Giving away tickets to fans to ten free screenings almost a month before a big studio movie opens is almost unheard of.

I think they probably already have some secret test screenings, and perhaps the execs at Disney already saw it too so they're giving the movie a vote of confidence. No matter what, I'm glad they're doing it because I really hope the movie will not just be hyped, but actually be good, as well.

 

[hatebox]

Watching how fast THG reaches its 200 mil does worry me a bit, since TA will be out in a month and obviously the expectation will be just as high for it as it was for THG. I hope the movie will be able to meet its challenges and deliver a stellar performance at the box office.

THG certainly won't be competition for TA by the time it comes out (in case that was what you meant) but given THG whill score at least 350m domestic there is a good chance it'll beat TA's North American tally overall. TA will have a big opening but then it's going to face big films weeks after week for the rest of the summer so it'll have to be good to maintain its legs.

 

[J.Howlett]

Avengers isn't beating The Hunger Games opening weekend. Bank on it.

As big as the heat is for the Avengers, it won't reach Hunger Games buzz. That thing was a four quadrant explosion.

Avengers will get close, but it won't beat it. Avengers will beat Hunger Games in the international department but I truly think it's not going to be Hunger Games domestic total. That thing is on pace for 360 million domestic total.

Marvel Studios' biggest domestic total was Iron Man with 318 million. Will the inclusion of the rest of the MCU give it another 50 to 60 million?

Not seeing it...yet. The May competition is going to hurt it...no matter how good it is. There's just too many films. Avengers has two weeks to make it's bank.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Avengers isn't beating The Hunger Games opening weekend. Bank on it.

As big as the heat is for the Avengers, it won't reach Hunger Games buzz. That thing was a four quadrant explosion.

Avengers will get close, but it won't beat it. Avengers will beat Hunger Games in the international department but I truly think it's not going to be Hunger Games domestic total. That thing is on pace for 360 million domestic total.

Marvel Studios' biggest domestic total was Iron Man with 318 million. Will the inclusion of the rest of the MCU give it another 50 to 60 million?

Not seeing it...yet. The May competition is going to hurt it...no matter how good it is. There's just too many films. Avengers has two weeks to make it's bank.

Sorry but this is pure nonsense.

The buzz for THE AVENGERS was already close to the level of THG when the theatrical trailer came out, which was months ago. In April a huge marketing push is ensuing and this thing's going to have an astronomical opening.

Secondly the May 'competition' is absurd. The interest in Dark Shadows, Battleship, and MIB III are mediocre at best to, non-existant at worst.

Also all signs from MARVEL and DISNEY point ot a film that has blown away all preview screenings and is an EXCELLENT film which will have great legs.

 

[BigThor]

Sorry but this is pure nonsense.

The buzz for THE AVENGERS was already close to the level of THG when the theatrical trailer came out, which was months age. In April a huge marketing push is ensuing and this thing's going to have an astronomical opening.

Secondly the May 'competition' is absurd. The interest in Dark Shadows, Battleship, and MIB III are mediocre at bes to, non-existant at worst.

Also all signs from MARVEL and DISNEY point ot a film that has blown away all preview screenings and is an EXCELLENT film which will have great legs.

Like I said before, I'm just gonna sit back and wait for The Avengers performance to blow the doubters away.

Sure they'll find quite a few excuses, but we don't live in "if" and "but" land.

 

[Quasimod0]

WOM will only help this film. If theyre doing so many early screening, they must have serious faith in the films quality

 

[Shadowlord X]

Like I said before, I'm just gonna sit back and wait for The Avengers performance to blow the doubters away.

Sure they'll find quite a few excuses, but we don't live in "if" and "but" land.

I'm there with ya, buddy!

 

[BigThor]

I'm there with ya, buddy!

In my mind the 128 million dollars Iron Man 2 opened with pretty much guaranteed The Avengers an opening of 150 million plus.