The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[DoomsdayApex]

I'm aiming low, that way I'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

[BigThor]

I think all 3 of those films will exceed those predictions .

Especially The Amazing Spider-Man, I see that film doing no less than IM2 type numbers.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Gotta add to those pre-sold tickets, some IMAX theaters don't have pre-purchase yet and some theaters don't have any pre-order tickets available yet. So that number will likely rise as well.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I'm aiming low, that way I'll be pleasantly surprised.

As am I, particularily for Amazing.

Especially The Amazing Spider-Man, I see that film doing no less than IM2 type numbers.

Wouldn't surprise me, I'm just going by the performance of recent reboots.

 

[hatebox]

Spider-Man will be lucky to make over 300m domestically. Not feeling the anticpation on or off the internet (I was going to say 'web' but the pun was too painful).

I'd be surprised if Avengers breaks the OW record, but I do know that if it does then TDKR will subsequently break it again and 2012 will be seen as a huge year in general.

 

[hatebox]

The analyst who made that prediction is with Exhibitor Relations. It's not as if he pulled those numbers out of the air. He has access to information about ticket presales, tracking data and the like upon which he based his prediction. It's less optimism on his part -- he's a professional who has no reason to talk up the movie -- than an informed estimation of the movie's prospects.

Trust me, these guys are no more accurate in their predictions than most people who freqeunt box office forums. TA will open huge but don't take anyone's word as gospel on anything more detailed than that at this point.

 

[Raiden]

I think since U.S. gets TA a little later than other countries do, if the advanced reviews are phenomenal and the foreign box office sends back reports of huge business, they will help create a sensation before the May 4th release date and may significantly impact TA's OW figures. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why Disney/Marvel made the decision to schedule the movie like this.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I predict big openings for the comic films this summer:

TDKR - $175 million
The Avengers - $ 155 million
Amazing Spidey - $100 million

I honestly don't think there'll be that big a gap between Avengers and TDKR. They both seem to be at the same level of anticipation.

TDKR - $168 million
The Avengers - $ 165 million

 

[The Morningstar]

Well the TDKR hype machine hasn't started yet. I expect WB are waiting for Avengers to release then they'll kick their marketing campaign off big time.

 

[Xeno]

It's absolutely hilarious when industry analysts predict something with vast amounts of stats, info, and experience behind them, and then people here, whose carreers/jobs have nothing to do with this, dispute these predictions.

Wow.

Yeah, really. The industry analysts have years of experience analyzing data and extrapolating from it. The professionals aren't influenced by sentiment or a desire to see a movie do well (or fail). Their judgment has more credibility than that of any random fan on the Internet, my own included.

 

[Tony Stark]

Avengers, Spidey, TDKR will be in the top 5 grossing films of 2012, the question will be if Hunger Games or BD pt 2 will force one or more out of the top 3.

The disappointing thing is how bad the summer movie season is outside these three films. Literally nothing in May sparks my interest. Maybe MIB III will surprise me, but considering how bad MIB II was, I'm not holding my breath.

Dark shadows I'm not sure about, I don't think it will hold well with Avengers week no. 2, and Johnny Depp and Burton really have not created a box office sensation together since Ed Wood. Charley and the Chocolate Factory was creepy and forgettable, and Sweeney Todd was a great film but didn't draw people into the seats. However considering the surprising success of TV turned movie spoofs like 21 jump street, I will not totally rule this film being successful.

X-factors this summer will be Prometheus (which looks fantastic), and Total Recall (I'm not sure I'm ready for another Hollywood remake, but the trailers looked intriguing).

 

[T"Challa]

Avengers, Spidey, TDKR will be in the top 5 grossing films of 2012, the question will be if Hunger Games or BD pt 2 will force one or more out of the top 3.

The disappointing thing is how bad the summer movie season is outside these three films. Literally nothing in May sparks my interest. Maybe MIB III will surprise me, but considering how bad MIB II was, I'm not holding my breath.

Dark shadows I'm not sure about, I don't think it will hold well with Avengers week no. 2, and Johnny Depp and Burton really have not created a box office sensation together since Ed Wood. Charley and the Chocolate Factory was creepy and forgettable, and Sweeney Todd was a great film but didn't draw people into the seats. However considering the surprising success of TV turned movie spoofs like 21 jump street, I will not totally rule this film being successful.

X-factors this summer will be Prometheus (which looks fantastic), and Total Recall (I'm not sure I'm ready for another Hollywood remake, but the trailers looked intriguing).

Don't forget the Hobbit. I think that will top the box office this year.

 

[Tony Stark]

Don't forget the Hobbit. I think that will top the box office this year.

Oh yeah I totally forgot about that one! That's definitely going to be up there. I was mainly thinking of the summer releases.

 

[hatebox]

Well the TDKR hype machine hasn't started yet. I expect WB are waiting for Avengers to release then they'll kick their marketing campaign off big time.

Yeah, come June the hype for TDKR will feel very different to what it is now.

 

[Quasimod0]

Johnny Depp and Burton really have not created a box office sensation together since Ed Wood.

Alice in wonderland

 

[Tony Stark]

Alice in wonderland

Yeah, it made money, but personally I couldn't stand it, and it certainly didn't get glowing reviews. But I did say "box office sensation" which it did make money, so I'll give you that.

 

[BigThor]

^ Yep, it made over a billion dollars worth of money at that.

 

[Tony Stark]

I will say that I think Avengers is the first Marvel Studio film that has a legit shot of being no. 1 for 3 weeks. Alot of that depends on positive reviews and good WOM, but I do not see a serious threat to Avengers until MIB III. Battleship, well let me put it this way, ever see Harold and Kumar? That might be a more appropriate title for that movie.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I will say that I think Avengers is the first Marvel Studio film that has a legit shot of being no. 1 for 3 weeks. Alot of that depends on positive reviews and good WOM, but I do not see a serious threat to Avengers until MIB III. Battleship, well let me put it this way, ever see Harold and Kumar? That might be a more appropriate title for that movie.

Spoiler

Spoiler

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[eddy]

Johnny Depp and Burton really have not created a box office sensation together since Ed Wood.

Ed Wood was a flop. A huge one. And like others said, Alice In Wonderland.

 

[ddddeeee]

Charlie was also a huge success and Sleepy Hollow was massive for its genre.

 

[Nokio]

I can't really predict what the Avengers will do. Us fans are hyped and to us its a big deal but looking from it from a non biased standpoint and going by the numbers for Thor and Cap and IM I'm thinking the film will be lucky to get to 400 million but logic tells me it'll make it over the 300 mil hump easily and stagger along up to 400 million if it makes it. I thinking about 350 domestic tops. Now the dreaming fan in me puts it at over 400 million easily with a 175-200 million opening weekend.

The negative is that Whedon screws this up. I'm a bit nervous despite liking what I've seen so far, but I just do not have any faith in Whedon. He just seems very small scale and TVish. His past theater flicks has been ok but I just have never seen anything from this man that screams he's going blow it out of the water. Even his run on Xmen was just ok. I'm hoping for mudd on my face but I'm not sold, Sorry but I'm not.

 

[KangConquers]

The Dark Knight Rises- $185 M OW/ $450 M Total
Avengers- $155 M OW/ $375 M Total
Amazing Spider-Man- $110 M OW/ $275 M Total

Foreign grosses are such a crap shoot. But these feel right to me in domestic gross.

 

[TheGambler]

The Dark Knight Rises- $185 M OW/ $450 M Total
Avengers- $155 M OW/ $375 M Total
Amazing Spider-Man- $110 M OW/ $275 M Total

Foreign grosses are such a crap shoot. But these feel right to me in domestic gross.

I think ASM will be a surprise hit and open with a little more than $110m, but regarding the other two, I think you are pretty spot on. I could definitely see that happening. Both will be huge at the BO, that's for sure.

 

[mclay18]

It's absolutely hilarious when industry analysts predict something with vast amounts of stats, info, and experience behind them, and then people here, whose carreers/jobs have nothing to do with this, dispute these predictions.

Wow.

It's not that. I think it's a little premature to say it'll challenge HP8 and TDK's opening weekend record, even with years of experience, tracking and so forth behind them. The market is difficult to predict, and it could go higher or lower than that. I think they'll have more accurate numbers once Disney releases early ticket selling numbers prior to opening.