The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Jordanstine]

Has it been released in Japan yet?

 

[Jordanstine]

Q: Has been there some kind of study that says movies released in the Summer months fare better in the long run than movies released in the Spring months?

I know that Summer weekdays are higher than Spring weekdays, but that Spring weekends are way higher than Summer weekends, and that both their M-F totals would eventually even out.

But I could make an argument that a film like The Avengers could do even better in the Summer.

In a month like May, you still have school (obviously), TV shows trying to wrap up their season, sports every night like MLB and even the NBA Playoffs going on. Spring movies usually don't last as long since they have to make room for the other Summer big guns.

In a month like July, people are out of school, TV shows have just ended and are now on re-runs, only the MLB is playing. Not only that but Summer movies can last longer in theaters because the upcoming Fall movies don't have quite the same "guns".

Reason for the question is that me and a couple of my co-workers who haven't seen The Avengers were planning on seeing it Saturday. We're mostly all NBA fans and it's now the NBA Playoffs. We couldn't do it in our usual time tonight, Friday, since some of the people in my group are Clippers fans and there's an elimination game tonight, so we all made an agreement to go to see The Avengers on Saturday instead. But those plans were ruined last night because the Lakers, who is a much bigger deal here in So Cali, lost a game and now would have to play a Game 7 elimination game this coming Saturday. So that means we're going to have to re-schedule our movie weekened for next Saturday instead (and you know what often happens when you put something off - you often put it off again and again until the hype dies down, or someone in your group won't be able to make it). That was 12 people that could've seen The Avengers this Saturday, and that's just my group. There are millions of people that watch these Playoffs games, people whose demographics are The Avengers' target audience.

My other question is that do Studios try to reserve dates years and years ahead of time? I'm just wondering because it seems Warner Bros loves putting out all their big guns in July from Harry Potter to their Chris Nolan's films (Batman to Inception).

Anyway it was just something I've been really curious to know.

 

[Liam_H]

Has it been released in Japan yet?

Not until August.

 

[MarvelKnight]

This movie is getting over a billion. That's all that matters, yo.

 

[YoMaMa84]

So I guess it won't earn 1 billion at all?

seriously? I think the better question is, will it make 2 billion? 1 billion is already in the bank.

Everyone that I've spoke to that have seen the movie is planning to go see it again this weekend. I want to go see it again, but I have a paper due soon and I need to get it done this weekend.

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

I stop caring about how much multi-national mega corporations make on a franchise film I enjoyed once a sequel(s) is guaranteed. It's safe to say since that about since mid-day Sunday that was in the bag. At this point, why does it matter if it makes 1, 2, or 3 billion $? The film is an unarguable success and us fans will be getting a lot more, hopefully quality, films.

 

[murdock_matt]

Jordanstine. You make an interesting point. (Also befuddling the point is that the 2 highest grossing films of all time - Avatar and Titanic - were released in December!!) I think WB targets July because they have routinely slotted HUGE films in that month which causes other studios to not even try to open too closely behind them. And since August usually begins school, WB's tentpole movies pretty much close out the summer. So HP and DK can run for months without any REAL threat of blockbusters following them. I mean, what follows up TDKR this summer? Step Up: Revolution? The Total Recall remake? Nah... (Although TR will be pretty cool.) Summer will end with Batman this year.

One other thing I was curious about, and possibly board members around the world can answer this... We (as Americans) tend to think of box office figures strictly in the Domestic Box Office frame. Of course, Americans do apparently spend more money on movies than other countries... but what about the seasonal changes around the world. I mean, our summer blockbusters hit Australia in the middle of their winter. And a large portion of these blockbusters' demographic DOES fall into some school/college age people, how does that effect box office in those areas? Are Australian kids out for winter break over there? I mean, call me an ignorant American, but how can I learn the answers to these questions unless I ask?

 

[04nbod]

Same here. It also seems like the writers (and one writer in PARTICULAR) have very little knowledge of past continuity. That, or maybe they just dont care.

But it drives ME nuts, personally.

If you mean Matt Fraction, he knows past continuity but just doesn't care.

 

[Iceman]

So I guess it won't earn 1 billion at all?

Where do you keep getting this from? t: It's at about $800m now with a domestic and international weekend coming up both of which might get close to $100m. So it might have a billion by the end of this weekend & if not then at some point in the weekdays of next week.

So in summary, absolutely zero chance of a billion

 

[Raiden]

Where do you keep getting this from? t: It's at about $800m now with a domestic and international weekend coming up both of which might get close to $100m. So it might have a billion by the end of this weekend & if not then at some point in the weekdays of next week.

So in summary, absolutely zero chance of a billion

Well said!

 

[Iceman]

‎"Dark" at the end of the tunnel: DARK SHADOWS reportedly earned a measly $500k from 1,600+ midnight screenings.

http://www.facebook.com/ercboxoffice

 

[spider-neil]

‎"Dark" at the end of the tunnel: DARK SHADOWS reportedly earned a measly $500k from 1,600+ midnight screenings.

http://www.facebook.com/ercboxoffice

what a surprise.

 

[Vartha]

Where do you keep getting this from? t: It's at about $800m now with a domestic and international weekend coming up both of which might get close to $100m. So it might have a billion by the end of this weekend & if not then at some point in the weekdays of next week.

So in summary, absolutely zero chance of a billion

lol Right?
thalidomide, as long as the world doesn't end, Avengers will be in US theaters for at LEAST two months.

 

[murdock_matt]

^^^ Oh yeah... And Avengers will be near $1.3 billion before it even opens in Japan.

 

[marcvader]

Thalidomide has to be kidding. Right?

 

[Jordanstine]

Jordanstine. You make an interesting point. (Also befuddling the point is that the 2 highest grossing films of all time - Avatar and Titanic - were released in December!!) I think WB targets July because they have routinely slotted HUGE films in that month which causes other studios to not even try to open too closely behind them. And since August usually begins school, WB's tentpole movies pretty much close out the summer. So HP and DK can run for months without any REAL threat of blockbusters following them. I mean, what follows up TDKR this summer? Step Up: Revolution? The Total Recall remake? Nah... (Although TR will be pretty cool.) Summer will end with Batman this year.

One other thing I was curious about, and possibly board members around the world can answer this... We (as Americans) tend to think of box office figures strictly in the Domestic Box Office frame. Of course, Americans do apparently spend more money on movies than other countries... but what about the seasonal changes around the world. I mean, our summer blockbusters hit Australia in the middle of their winter. And a large portion of these blockbusters' demographic DOES fall into some school/college age people, how does that effect box office in those areas? Are Australian kids out for winter break over there? I mean, call me an ignorant American, but how can I learn the answers to these questions unless I ask?

Agreed about the overseas seasonal changes as well. Good pointing that out!

I can also understand how December pulls in huge numbers too with the Holiday season.

 

[Xeno]

Do you have a link for that video?

http://www.superherohype.com/news/a...ceo-bob-iger-on-a-marvels-the-avengers-sequel


Skip to around the 5:00 mark for Iger's comments on The Avengers. Iger is thrilled at the film's performance and has definite plans to capitalize on the opportunities for more franchises and marketing that will arise from it. One can only hope that this means an expansion of Marvel's budgets for films going forward.


Maria Bartiromo asked Iger several times whether the success of the movie would influence his selection of a new CEO for Disney's feature film division. That was a not-so-subtle reference to the fact that Kevin Feige is in the running for that position.

 

[Iceman]

BoxOfficeMojo updated:

Domestic: $270,019,373 33.6%
+ Foreign: $533,300,000 66.4%
= Worldwide: $803,319,373

 

[Fanticon]

another 12m...now stands at 270m domestic.

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

 

[Tony Stark]

BoxOfficeMojo updated:

Domestic: $270,019,373 33.6%
+ Foreign: $533,300,000 66.4%
= Worldwide: $803,319,373

Should be at 1B by Monday. What is Avatar's record?

 

[Avenger]

Maria Bartiromo asked Iger several times whether the success of the movie would influence his selection of a new CEO for Disney's feature film division. That was a not-so-subtle reference to the fact that Kevin Feige is in the running for that position.

While I wouldn't blame Feige for taking such a promotion if it were offered to him, I kind of hope he stays where he is for the time being. I think he's done a great job shepherding the MCU; better than I could have ever expected.

 

[marcvader]

Has AB's opinion of Feige softened at all? Just curious.

 

[Avenger]

Should be at 1B by Monday. What is Avatar's record?

$2.78 billion.

 

[Tony Stark]

$2.78 billion.

Sorry, I meant how many days did Avatar take to get to 1B? Avengers should be 17 days.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

The Avatar record will be with us for quite a while. Until Avatar 2 I would guess.