The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[cherokeesam]

Going from opening Sunday to a non holiday weekday in May is usually a big drop.

Going from an opening weekend to ANY Monday is guaranteed to be a big drop.

That's why whoever posted that "omg there's a 68% dropoff" is jumping the gun by about four days. "Dropoff" means the next *weekend,* not the next day. Mondays are useless for theaters, except during three-day holiday weekends.

 

[sgaana]

This opening weekend figure is just crazy. Got to be the biggest margin of breaking the record. Can't see anything breaking Avengers' record by that much (in percentage terms).

This is probably unknowable, but... I'd love to hear people speculate about what the theoretical ceiling is on OW box office in the U.S.

Obviously, Avengers didn't open as wide as it COULD have, since it's only like the 7th-widest opening of all time, or something. And percentage of 3D to 2D screenings varied widely.

But it also sounded like the movie's business was, in a sense, limited by the capacity of the theaters to get it on screens and sell the tickets. At a certain point, a movie can't make more than $X, right? It can't just keep selling tickets to everyone who wants one on OW.

What I haven't heard yet (again, maybe because it's impossible to tell?) is how many people tried to get a ticket this weekend, and it was too hard, so they've postponed their first viewing of it.

 

[Tony Stark]

^Marvel has made plenty of mistakes along the way, unnecessary re-casts, the direction of IM2, upsetting some actors/directors along the way, but i'm hope the succes of TA puts them on the right road from now on.

OK, let me correct you here. Those aren't "mistakes" that's called business. Terrance Howard was given a number, and he didn't like it, so he quit. Norton was given a number he didn't like it so he quit. When someone quits they are going to recast, so calling it unnecessary is kind of silly.

Films have a budget and they have to stick to that budget. People went to Iron Man in droves because of RDJ and Paltrow, not Terrance Howard, no matter how good of a job you think he did. Obviously Howard thought he deserved a bigger slice of the pie and Marvel disagreed. The fact that Cheadle agreed to do it for that price, and now he's back for the sequel shows who is the team player and who is not.

Same goes for Norton. I like Ed Norton, but everyone blames Feige and not Norton. Well I bet you Ed Norton is kicking himself now for not taking the roll.

 

[Tony Stark]

Going from an opening weekend to ANY Monday is guaranteed to be a big drop.

That's why whoever posted that "omg there's a 68% dropoff" is jumping the gun by about four days. "Dropoff" means the next *weekend,* not the next day. Mondays are useless for theaters, except during three-day holiday weekends.

Yes, for example IM1 had a 73% Monday drop, and IM2 had a 69% drop, so 68% is actually a better Monday hold over than those two films.

In May because school is still in session there are lower weekday numbers, but that should carry over to a larger weekend.

 

[cherokeesam]

Yes, for example IM1 had a 73% Monday drop, and IM2 had a 69% drop, so 68% is actually a better Monday hold over than those two films.

In May because school is still in session there are lower weekday numbers, but that should carry over to a larger weekend.

Also, an interesting factoid here, via BOM:

Avengers *already* has the 5-day highest gross EVARRR....and that's before today's receipts are even counted.

TDK's previous record for 5 days was $203 million, and Avengers cracked that in three. They could *literally* sell NO tickets on Monday or today (Tuesday) and *still* overshoot TDK's 5-day mark by 4 million bucks.

 

[sgaana]

I'm sure there are a LOT of articles about this floating out there, but here is one from Salon.com (not written by Andrew O'Hehir) about the box office take:

http://www.salon.com/2012/05/07/breaking_down_the_avengers_box_office_take/

 

[yads]

I'm sure there are a LOT of articles about this floating out there, but here is one from Salon.com (not written by Andrew O'Hehir) about the box office take:

http://www.salon.com/2012/05/07/breaking_down_the_avengers_box_office_take/

That guy mentions how the trailer was "mediocre" - which just indicates how out of touch he is. The main trailer is one of the best of the last few years, and most people, online and offline, thought so. In fact, the opening weekend being so huge is partly due to the greatness of the last trailer.

 

[cherokeesam]

About that "68% dropoff" reported for Monday: that's Sunday to Monday dropoff, right?

Which, off Sunday's $67.8 mil take means TA did $21.696 on Monday. Which puts it at #6 all-time for *any* Monday, and #2 for a non-holiday Monday.

It also means Avengers has already bought a "free pass" to #1 on the all-time SIX-day gross as well. It only needs $10 mil more to win biggest Opening Week of All Time. (It already shot past HP:TDH2 for the #2 spot on that list as of Monday.)

 

[yads]

About that "68% dropoff" reported for Monday: that's Sunday to Monday dropoff, right?

Which, off Sunday's $67.8 mil take means TA did $21.696 on Monday. Which puts it at #6 all-time for *any* Monday, and #2 for a non-holiday Monday.

It also means Avengers has already bought a "free pass" to #1 on the all-time SIX-day gross as well. It only needs $10 mil more to win biggest Opening Week of All Time. (It already shot past HP:TDH2 for the #2 spot on that list as of Monday.)

Guru is saying $19m roughly. Which is fantastic for a non-holiday.

 

[thalidomide]

When are they going to release this movie in China and Russia again?

 

[cherokeesam]

I'm sure there are a LOT of articles about this floating out there, but here is one from Salon.com (not written by Andrew O'Hehir) about the box office take:

http://www.salon.com/2012/05/07/breaking_down_the_avengers_box_office_take/

This paragraph grabbed my attention:

The picture played 50 percent over/under 25 years old and 60 percent male. It earned a surprising 52 percent of its gross in 3-D ticket sales with 8 percent of that being from IMAX. So yes, even without the 3-D bump, it still would have set a new opening weekend record (around $175 million, although theoretical 2-D IMAX showings would have had the same “bump” as 3-D IMAX showings). And yes, even with inflation factored in, the film sold more tickets over its opening weekend than any other film ever (26.5 million tickets, about 3.5 million more than “The Dark Knight”). “The Avengers” played all weekend to packed houses all day and night for audiences of all shapes and sizes. And, if only judging by my Twitter feed, there was lots of repeat business just over the weekend.

That means the usual "inflation" and "3D bump" excuses do not come into play here.

 

[yads]

When are they going to release this movie in China and Russia again?

It came out last weekend in both countries.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

OK, let me correct you here. Those aren't "mistakes" that's called business. Terrance Howard was given a number, and he didn't like it, so he quit. Norton was given a number he didn't like it so he quit. When someone quits they are going to recast, so calling it unnecessary is kind of silly.

Films have a budget and they have to stick to that budget. People went to Iron Man in droves because of RDJ and Paltrow, not Terrance Howard, no matter how good of a job you think he did. Obviously Howard thought he deserved a bigger slice of the pie and Marvel disagreed. The fact that Cheadle agreed to do it for that price, and now he's back for the sequel shows who is the team player and who is not.

Same goes for Norton. I like Ed Norton, but everyone blames Feige and not Norton. Well I bet you Ed Norton is kicking himself now for not taking the roll.

i was thinking the same thing.

 

[Shadowlord X]

OK, let me correct you here. Those aren't "mistakes" that's called business. Terrance Howard was given a number, and he didn't like it, so he quit. Norton was given a number he didn't like it so he quit. When someone quits they are going to recast, so calling it unnecessary is kind of silly.

Films have a budget and they have to stick to that budget. People went to Iron Man in droves because of RDJ and Paltrow, not Terrance Howard, no matter how good of a job you think he did. Obviously Howard thought he deserved a bigger slice of the pie and Marvel disagreed. The fact that Cheadle agreed to do it for that price, and now he's back for the sequel shows who is the team player and who is not.

Same goes for Norton. I like Ed Norton, but everyone blames Feige and not Norton. Well I bet you Ed Norton is kicking himself now for not taking the roll.

Agreed.

 

[kedrell]

This paragraph grabbed my attention:



That means the usual "inflation" and "3D bump" excuses do not come into play here.

I've been saying that since Sunday. Attendance record was broken.

 

[kedrell]

So with a 19M Monday, it should be at $226-227M right now.

 

[BigThor]

OK, let me correct you here. Those aren't "mistakes" that's called business. Terrance Howard was given a number, and he didn't like it, so he quit. Norton was given a number he didn't like it so he quit. When someone quits they are going to recast, so calling it unnecessary is kind of silly.

Films have a budget and they have to stick to that budget. People went to Iron Man in droves because of RDJ and Paltrow, not Terrance Howard, no matter how good of a job you think he did. Obviously Howard thought he deserved a bigger slice of the pie and Marvel disagreed. The fact that Cheadle agreed to do it for that price, and now he's back for the sequel shows who is the team player and who is not.

Same goes for Norton. I like Ed Norton, but everyone blames Feige and not Norton. Well I bet you Ed Norton is kicking himself now for not taking the roll.

Point. blank. period

 

[thalidomide]

THE AVENGERS has already surpassed the worldwide totals of IRON MAN ($585M), IRON MAN 2 ($624M), THOR ($449M) & CAP. AMERICA ($364M).

— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice) May 8, 2012

 

[Jordanstine]

TDK had a 44% drop on it's first Monday to $24.5M, followed by $20.8M, $18.4M, $16.5M and up again $23.2M on Friday.

Since Avengers had a 68% drop something around $19.7M it would need to make up the non-weekday Monday with a stronger 2nd Friday weekend to keep pace with TDK's weekday forecasts.

I always wonder why Marvel loves releasing their films in May... technically shouldn't films released in July do slightly better since the summer is out?

 

[iJackSparrow]

And The Avengers keep breaking records overseas!!!

Here in Brazil the movie premiered in April, 27th, at 968 screens, bringing 4,9 million people to to the theaters until last monday, faturing more than $30.465M so far. In the first weekend the movie fatured more than $11.418M breaking the OW record, at the second weekend (05/04-05/06), with an astonishing 17% drop and more $9,3M, with no signs of getting any less stronger.

To take in consideration, the second movie is American Reunion, with $830.000. t:

Avengers, SMASH!!!!!!!

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

OK, let me correct you here. Those aren't "mistakes" that's called business. Terrance Howard was given a number, and he didn't like it, so he quit. Norton was given a number he didn't like it so he quit. When someone quits they are going to recast, so calling it unnecessary is kind of silly.

Films have a budget and they have to stick to that budget. People went to Iron Man in droves because of RDJ and Paltrow, not Terrance Howard, no matter how good of a job you think he did. Obviously Howard thought he deserved a bigger slice of the pie and Marvel disagreed. The fact that Cheadle agreed to do it for that price, and now he's back for the sequel shows who is the team player and who is not.

Same goes for Norton. I like Ed Norton, but everyone blames Feige and not Norton. Well I bet you Ed Norton is kicking himself now for not taking the roll.

Norton was never to do with money, it was creative differences, and seeing the deleted scene's of TIH, IMO shows he was right, that movie could have been a lot better, so whether it was business or not, they made a mistake. It was never indicated that Norton's removal from The Avengers was about money either, it was about them disagreeing again, which Marvel never budge on because they have "their vision."

So you havent corrected anything, they HAVE made mistakes, IM2 was also one of them, I really do hope one day you get out of this "Marvel can do no wrong" mode that you have been in for years now. They WILL make mistakes, they HAVE made mistakes, the same as ANY other studio, but Marvel has more power to correct theirs.

 

[iJackSparrow]

Can you imagine USA having a drop as minimal as 20% next weekend? The Avengers is a JUGGERNAUT. t:

 

[Raiden]

This paragraph grabbed my attention:



That means the usual "inflation" and "3D bump" excuses do not come into play here.

I'm glad the facts are out and those trolls who keep wanting to marginalize TA's box office success can now go take a hike.

 

[Oruku Saki]

Norton was never to do with money, it was creative differences, and seeing the deleted scene's of TIH, IMO shows he was right, that movie could have been a lot better, so whether it was business or not, they made a mistake. It was never indicated that Norton's removal from The Avengers was about money either, it was about them disagreeing again, which Marvel never budge on because they have "their vision."

So you havent corrected anything, they HAVE made mistakes, IM2 was also one of them, I really do hope one day you get out of this "Marvel can do no wrong" mode that you have been in for years now. They WILL make mistakes, they HAVE made mistakes, the same as ANY other studio, but Marvel has more power to correct theirs.

I say getting rid of Norton and Howard weren't mistakes at all personally. Just cause you like Norton so much doesn't mean we all do. Personally I dislike Leterrier as a director and he's shown time and again he isn't that great. Marvel's biggest issue with TIH wasn't themselves or Norton; it was Universal (penchant for screwing up monster movies recently that should be box office smashes) and Letterier's vision of Hulk just wasn't correct.

From the overwhelming applause for Hulk in Avengers at my 3 showings as well as his much better characterization in this movie I would say they are on the right track. Marvel has made alot of mistakes over the years; getting rid of Norton and Howard? Not so much.

BTW the only people that didn't like IM2 were fanboys; the GA loved it and I suspect that IM3 will have even better numbers when it comes out! Scratch that; I guarantee it!

 

[Rock Sexton]

TDK had a 44% drop on it's first Monday to $24.5M, followed by $20.8M, $18.4M, $16.5M and up again $23.2M on Friday.

Since Avengers had a 68% drop something around $19.7M it would need to make up the non-weekday Monday with a stronger 2nd Friday weekend to keep pace with TDK's weekday forecasts.

I always wonder why Marvel loves releasing their films in May... technically shouldn't films released in July do slightly better since the summer is out?

I know people who have yet to see it because it was sold out everywhere. I imagine this next weekend is going to be a good one.