The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Pond]

From here:

http://whedonesque.com/comments/28797

Joss talks on whedonesque, ask himself some questions, and answers.

RDA: I've seen a lot of a talk about "the Availers" vs "the Dark Knight Rises". How will you feel if you're eclipsed by Nolan?

JW: I'm glad I made you ask that. I will feel sad. But let's look at the bigger picture, and I can't say this enough: THIS IS NOT A ZERO SUM GAME. Our successes, whoever has the mostest, are a boon to each other. We're in the business of proving that superhero movies aren't just eye-candy (they're eye-TRUFFLES!). People seem intent on setting us against each other, and though I'm proud to be Woody Strode to Nolan's Kirk Douglas, I think they're missing the point. Whatever TDKR does on its first weekend, the only stat that matters to me is the ticket I'M definitely buying. Nolan and Raimi INVENTED the true superhero flick, yo. (Special mention to Jon Favreau and James Gunn.) Happy to be in the mix.

 

[Infinity9999x]

From here:

http://whedonesque.com/comments/28797

Joss talks on whedonesque, ask himself some questions, and answers.

RDA: I've seen a lot of a talk about "the Availers" vs "the Dark Knight Rises". How will you feel if you're eclipsed by Nolan?

JW: I'm glad I made you ask that. I will feel sad. But let's look at the bigger picture, and I can't say this enough: THIS IS NOT A ZERO SUM GAME. Our successes, whoever has the mostest, are a boon to each other. We're in the business of proving that superhero movies aren't just eye-candy (they're eye-TRUFFLES!). People seem intent on setting us against each other, and though I'm proud to be Woody Strode to Nolan's Kirk Douglas, I think they're missing the point. Whatever TDKR does on its first weekend, the only stat that matters to me is the ticket I'M definitely buying. Nolan and Raimi INVENTED the true superhero flick, yo. (Special mention to Jon Favreau and James Gunn.) Happy to be in the mix.

Joss is the man.

 

[ElMariachi]

I'm pretty sure he made a sequel to Terminator

I meant T2. He left the franchise he created to ruin and refuses to bring it back into it's former glory.

It's not just that. He comes out saying the all he wants to do is make Avatar movies now. It would be like Chris Nolan saying all he is going to do now is Inception sequels! A guy that talented should be working on different stuff in my opinion.

 

[Travesty]

I meant T2. He left the franchise he created to ruin and refuses to bring it back into it's former glory.

It's not just that. He comes out saying the all he wants to do is make Avatar movies now. It would be like Chris Nolan saying all he is going to do now is Inception sequels! A guy that talented should be working on different stuff in my opinion.

At first you wanted him to keep doing Terminator sequels, but now you're saying you don't want him to do any sequels?

Heh, not a fan of Avatar, huh?t:

 

[Chewy]

I meant T2. He left the franchise he created to ruin and refuses to bring it back into it's former glory.

He ended the franchise he created on a beautiful and poetic note and others picked up the reins and drove it into the ground

 

[Suzanne78]

As Chewy brought up on the boxoffice.com forums... this is going to surge past my beloved Star Trek 2009 by today I think... *sigh*

It took Abrams' basic Star Trek formula and ratched it up several notches. This is making me excited to see how the Star Trek sequel will measure up. The way I see it, both Star Trek and Avengers are the yardstick for future ensemble action movies.

 

[Tony Stark]

As Chewy brought up on the boxoffice.com forums... this is going to surge past my beloved Star Trek 2009 by today I think... *sigh*

It took Abrams' basic Star Trek formula and ratched it up several notches. This is making me excited to see how the Star Trek sequel will measure up. The way I see it, both Star Trek and Avengers are the yardstick for future ensemble action movies.

You can't compare this to Star Trek. Abram's Trek took a franchise that was dead in the water and jump started it in a huge way that no one could have thought possible. What I love about Star Trek is how many low budget practical effects Abrams used in that film. For example when they are doing the jump drop down to Vulcan, that was filmed with the actors standing on a huge mirror, looking up to an overhead camera, and a wind machine blowing on them. that was awesome! Compare that to the ridiculous fake looking CGI in the Star Wars prequels.

Avengers is a movie that build on the success of the other Marvel Studio films, and while it's somewhat of a pseudo sequel it stands alone as a solo film.

BTW, I totally agree about Star Trek and this being the yardstick for ensemble films. In fact back in 2010 where talk of Avengers really started heating up, I said they need to look at Star Trek, because that's the formula. Funny enough years later, Kevin Feige said he was watching Star Trek, when he saw the scene of Spoc watching his mother die, he had the idea that "we need to do that".

 

[ElMariachi]

At first you wanted him to keep doing Terminator sequels, but now you're saying you don't want him to do any sequels?

Heh, not a fan of Avatar, huh?t:

I have no problem with him doing Avatar sequels but that's ALL he apparently wants to do. He has abandoned all of his other work that people loved. Avatar was a popular movie but I don't really think it will stand the test of time the way Terminator/T2 have.

I didn't hate Avatar but I didn't really like it either. The movie looked beautiful but I didn't get into any of the characters. Stephen Lang was a great villain but that's about it. The concept was cool and I always appreciate new ideas, but I hated how he shoehorned his political beliefs into the movie. It was so hamfisted and obvious that it made it hard to enjoy the movie. If he avoids this in the sequel, I probally will like it more.

 

[ElMariachi]

He ended the franchise he created on a beautiful and poetic note and others picked up the reins and drove it into the ground

The ending to T2 was wonderful but that wasn't the end of the story. There was so many possibilities for the sequels and with new CGI. It's a shame he has no interest in picking up the franchise from.....the abyss. t:

I'm not even saying that he had to make these movies in the last ten years. But why can't we expect a follow-up to Terminator Salvation in the next ten years? His name alone would bring that franchise back. Just look at what Ridley Scott is doing with Prometheus. I would imagine James Cameron doing Terminator again would be just as exciting.

 

[50yroldfffan]

You can't compare this to Star Trek. Abram's Trek took a franchise that was dead in the water and jump started it in a huge way that no one could have thought possible. What I love about Star Trek is how many low budget practical effects Abrams used in that film. For example when they are doing the jump drop down to Vulcan, that was filmed with the actors standing on a huge mirror, looking up to an overhead camera, and a wind machine blowing on them. that was awesome! Compare that to the ridiculous fake looking CGI in the Star Wars prequels.

Avengers is a movie that build on the success of the other Marvel Studio films, and while it's somewhat of a pseudo sequel it stands alone as a solo film.

BTW, I totally agree about Star Trek and this being the yardstick for ensemble films. In fact back in 2010 where talk of Avengers really started heating up, I said they need to look at Star Trek, because that's the formula. Funny enough years later, Kevin Feige said he was watching Star Trek, when he saw the scene of Spoc watching his mother die, he had the idea that "we need to do that".

I also loved the new ST movie! It was great to see new life given to old friends

 

[AndrewGilkison]

If Cameron doesn't want to direct another Terminator, than I'd rather he not do it. We saw what happened when Spielberg directed the 4th Indiana Jones movie "for the fans" when he clearly wasn't that enthusiastic to return to it, himself.

 

[Spider-Vader]

If Avengers makes 100 mil this weekend, would it be the first to do so, or did Avatar do it first?

 

[metaphysician]

Avatar didn't even make 100M on its first weekend. Avatar does hold the second weekend record, but its "only" 75M and change. Which means, IMO, its a sure thing for Avengers to break the record. Its just a question of how much.

 

[Shadowlord X]

That was the amazing thing about Avatar.....it never had a big weekend just minor drops (~10%) week after week, all the way to >$700 million.

 

[Mysteryman]

Yeah,Titanic was like that too.
Must be a Cameron thing .
Or , He at least knows how to do it .

 

[kedrell]

It's his secret recipe'. Nobody knows how or why it works but he's done it twice.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Rth says Wednesday is around 22-27% drop from yesterday, for 13-14m.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I predict this will be a record setting year for movies. When you think of it in those terms, you want TA, TDKR and ASM to make as much money as possible in order to make 2012 a banner year.

As far as TA final BO figures, domestically, it can surpass 500m but will probably fall short of 700m, with a final tally of around 640-690 million. Beating Titanic would be...AVENGERRIFIC.

 

[psylockolussus]

If Avengers makes 100 mil this weekend, would it be the first to do so, or did Avatar do it first?

I don't think that is going to happen.

But I think it would get at least $50 million this weekend.

 

[redhawk23]

I meant T2. He left the franchise he created to ruin and refuses to bring it back into it's former glory.

It's not just that. He comes out saying the all he wants to do is make Avatar movies now. It would be like Chris Nolan saying all he is going to do now is Inception sequels! A guy that talented should be working on different stuff in my opinion.

He has spoken about how future sequels would explore other planets and moons and the bottoms of oceans and underground. We're not just talking about a bunch Na'vi movies here.

As Cameron has said himself, anything he wants to say, he sees the world that Avatar has set up as playground to say it in. Hell he might even make a movie featuring future earth for all we know, which would be interesting, I really liked the earth scenes at the beginning of the extended edition.

 

[redhawk23]

That was the amazing thing about Avatar.....it never had a big weekend just minor drops (~10%) week after week, all the way to >$700 million.

a nice thing also about his films not being so front loaded is that the theaters get a greater share of the profits as time goes one, week to week. This is part of the reason studios love the megaopenings, because they get a higher share earlier on.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't think that is going to happen.

But I think it would get at least $50 million this weekend.

That's way too low, $80 million is probably the lower end of the range. This isn't going to bleed like a HP or Twilight movie.

 

[Shadowlord X]

I don't think this will have such a huge drop-off.

It has broader mass market appeal than HP and thus is not as front-loaded. The WOM has been incredible! Cinemascore of A+! Forums, twitter, and facebook have been awash with praise! People whose curiosity has been peaked and are investigating will see a RT critics score of 93% and 8/10, RT viewer score of 96% and 4.7/5, and a IMDB rating of 8.8/10 and at #25 of all time.

I think >$100 million is very likely.

 

[Iceman]

That was the amazing thing about Avatar.....it never had a big weekend just minor drops (~10%) week after week, all the way to >$700 million.

Apart from its first weekend all its subsequent weekends were big, highest ever in fact until 8th weekend when it dropped to 2nd. If you mean huge in absolute numbers well I guess no movie has had more than 1 of those (their opening weekend) before.

I don't think this will have such a huge drop-off.

It has broader mass market appeal than HP and thus is not as front-loaded. The WOM has been incredible! Cinemascore of A+! Forums, twitter, and facebook have been awash with praise! People whose curiosity has been peaked and are investigating will see a RT critics score of 93% and 8/10, RT viewer score of 96% and 4.7/5, and a IMDB rating of 8.8/10 and at #25 of all time.

I think >$100 million is very likely.

Yep, everything you mentioned plus the numbers of the weekend itself indicate legs. Relatively good hold on Saturday and Sunday unlike the super-frontloaded films. It's got very broad appeal, maybe not quite as wide as Titanic but great coverage for a comic book movie.

 

[Carnage27]

Boxoffice.com is predicting 111 mill.