The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[KangConquers]

I think TA will pass everyone on the top five list except for Avatar and Titanic. It will most definitely surpass TDK, and so far it has reached its box office milestones faster than TDK had been as well. Even with MIB3 coming out this week, TA will still make quite a bit of money.

60% might be low, but I'd go no higher than 75%. TDK had no post-release competition which allowed it to have phenomenal legs for months on end. Avengers legs in June won't be as good as TDK's were in August, and that's going to be a huge factor.

Just the difference between a May and a July Blockbuster.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

T.A should do well this weekend because it is a Holiday and it is definitely getting to 600plus mil but it doesn't have a chance of making Avatar money.

 

[KangConquers]

T.A should do well this weekend because it is a Holiday and it is definitely getting to 600plus mil but it doesn't have a chance of making Avatar money.

So far Avengers legs are similar to Thor's in terms of drops. Thor's 2.78 Ratio would put Avengers at $575 M domestic. I don't think we'll see $600 M without a re-release.

 

[Raiden]

60% might be low, but I'd go no higher than 75%. TDK had no post-release competition which allowed it to have phenomenal legs for months on end. Avengers legs in June won't be as good as TDK's were in August, and that's going to be a huge factor.

Just the difference between a May and a July Blockbuster.

I understand that, but TA has been going at such a brisk place with no sign of really slowing down, even after its 3rd week of release, so I don't see why it won't be able to beat TDK. So far, TA has defied many market analysts' predictions ever since it grossed $207 mil in its OW, and I'm inclined to believe that it will continue to do so for the remainer of its box office run.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So far Avengers legs are similar to Thor's in terms of drops. Thor's 2.78 Ratio would put Avengers at $575 M domestic. I don't think we'll see $600 M without a re-release.

Interesting. Let me crunch the numbers and get back to you on that.

 

[Tony Stark]

So far Avengers legs are similar to Thor's in terms of drops. Thor's 2.78 Ratio would put Avengers at $575 M domestic. I don't think we'll see $600 M without a re-release.

I don't see how it's following Thor, which had a 55% week 3 drop. If it's anywhere close to 580, Disney will re-release. Avengers is running about 65M ahead of where TDK was at this point, and TDK had enough with the re-release to make it to 533.

 

[marcvader]

$600m is the benchmark I want for this movie. How long do some of you think this will stay in theaters?

 

[jse]

I don't see how it's following Thor, which had a 55% week 3 drop. If it's anywhere close to 580, Disney will re-release. Avengers is running about 65M ahead of where TDK was at this point, and TDK had enough with the re-release to make it to 533.

I think ever since the end of last wkend, its been tracking closer to the hold average of IM,IM2,X2,SM,&SM3. Using that average I had it projected to do 28.85M from Mon-Thu and it made 28.95M. I projected it to do 55.647M for the wkend and it made 55.644M. If it continues that pattern it should make 17.44M from Mon-Thu ($475M total); 32.7M for the 3-Day wkend (~$508M); 43.1M for the 4-Day wkend (~$518M). I have it @591M at the end of week #10, 8 days before TDKR is released.

 

[Jordanstine]

Actuals came in at $55.6M this weekend, making the domestic $457.6M.

$15M weekday + 4th weekend is likely going to be around $33M 3-day (or $42M 4-day Memorial Day).

It's going to hit $500M by Sunday.

 

[Jordanstine]

I think ever since the end of last wkend, its been tracking closer to the hold average of IM,IM2,X2,SM,&SM3. Using that average I had it projected to do 28.85M from Mon-Thu and it made 28.95M. I projected it to do 55.647M for the wkend and it made 55.644M. If it continues that pattern it should make 17.44M from Mon-Thu ($475M total); 32.7M for the 3-Day wkend (~$508M); 43.1M for the 4-Day wkend (~$518M). I have it @591M at the end of week #10, 8 days before TDKR is released.

Ooh, posted at the same time, pretty close with my projections, but I like your more detailed numbers better.

 

[jse]

Ooh, posted at the same time, pretty close with my projections, but I like your more detailed numbers better.

Oh lol thanks. Our numbers are practically the same. How did you come by your projections?

 

[jse]

$600m is the benchmark I want for this movie. How long do some of you think this will stay in theaters?

If what the rumormill says is true that the Avengers bluray is gonna be released in September and if it doesn't do $600M by the end of its run, it's probably counter-intuitive to rerelease/extend its run this year since theaters/homevideo might cannibalize each other's sales to a certain degree. TDK was different because WB was vying for oscar consideration. The day TDK came out on video on Dec8, it had made ~$530M in theaters and was still running. It only made ~$3M on top of that including the rerelease in January.

Although since the Avengers are going to be celebrating their 50th anniversary next year, that might be a more appropriate to time for a re-release. Whether they will actually do that or do a 50th anniversary edition home video release instead (or both) is anyone's guess.

 

[KangConquers]

If what the rumormill says is true that the Avengers bluray is gonna be released in September and if it doesn't do $600M by the end of its run, it's probably counter-intuitive to rerelease/extend its run this year since theaters/homevideo might cannibalize each other's sales to a certain degree. TDK was different because WB was vying for oscar consideration. The day TDK came out on video on Dec8, it had made ~$530M in theaters and was still running. It only made ~$3M on top of that including the rerelease in January.

Although since the Avengers are going to be celebrating their 50th anniversary next year, that might be a more appropriate to time for a re-release. Whether they will actually do that or do a 50th anniversary edition home video release instead (or both) is anyone's guess.

Avengers probably stands to make another $300 M dollars on blu-ray and DVD (considering TDK's DVD sales in 2008.) I think it'd be stupid to hurt those sales just to get bragging rights for something like $600 M domestic.

 

[Donut]

So far Avengers legs are similar to Thor's in terms of drops. Thor's 2.78 Ratio would put Avengers at $575 M domestic. I don't think we'll see $600 M without a re-release.

They will make a deal to bring it back into 3D / IMAX theaters before the Summer is done. No doubt about that

 

[eddy]

Avengers probably stands to make another $300 M dollars on blu-ray and DVD (considering TDK's DVD sales in 2008.) I think it'd be stupid to hurt those sales just to get bragging rights for something like $600 M domestic.

Why would the movie still being in theathers hurt the DVD sales? Wouldn't it be the other way around?

 

[warhorse78]

Why would the movie still being in theathers hurt the DVD sales? Wouldn't it be the other way around?

Yeah, I agree, I don't understand the logic of releasing a DVD/Blu-Ray would hurt sales. People who were intending to buy the movie, are going to buy it, regardless if it's released in September or on Black Friday, which I think is more appropriate. It would make a great stocking stuffer.

 

[Iceman]

I think ever since the end of last wkend, its been tracking closer to the hold average of IM,IM2,X2,SM,&SM3. Using that average I had it projected to do 28.85M from Mon-Thu and it made 28.95M. I projected it to do 55.647M for the wkend and it made 55.644M. If it continues that pattern it should make 17.44M from Mon-Thu ($475M total); 32.7M for the 3-Day wkend (~$508M); 43.1M for the 4-Day wkend (~$518M). I have it @591M at the end of week #10, 8 days before TDKR is released.

And what final gross do your numbers give you?

 

[rgaona07]

Avengers will reach at least 600 million by the end of its run

 

[Stark Bauer]

I think ever since the end of last wkend, its been tracking closer to the hold average of IM,IM2,X2,SM,&SM3. Using that average I had it projected to do 28.85M from Mon-Thu and it made 28.95M. I projected it to do 55.647M for the wkend and it made 55.644M. If it continues that pattern it should make 17.44M from Mon-Thu ($475M total); 32.7M for the 3-Day wkend (~$508M); 43.1M for the 4-Day wkend (~$518M). I have it @591M at the end of week #10, 8 days before TDKR is released.

your numbers seem pretty solid. They make a lot of sense to me...I believe your projection may turn out to be the most accurate. You should be hired by one of those BO sites

Ugh..I hope they dont release TA on BR DVD in September. Thats only 4 months from the release date. Give it at least 6 months cmon Marvel. Its not like people are going to forget about this movie anytime soon. I hate studios rushing a good movie to retail. This practice will discourage ppl to go see the movie in theatres esp. for those who have the home theatre setups.

it makes it seem like the movie bombed. Sometimes I miss the ol days where we used to wait a year for a movie to come out on home video. Who pays attention to DVD sales? They are not tracked as obsessively or religiously lol. I think the BO run is more exciting, it is like sports to me. end rant.

 

[TheVileOne]

$600m is the benchmark I want for this movie. How long do some of you think this will stay in theaters?

I think it stays in theaters through August.

I think with the holiday weekend it can very well surpass $600 million.

 

[Punisher Rising]

$600m is the benchmark I want for this movie. How long do some of you think this will stay in theaters?

I see most theaters carrying it until at least by the time TDKR is out or by the end of the Summer. It'll be playing for a good while for sure.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Sometimes I miss the ol days where we used to wait a year for a movie to come out on home video.

ugh, no way. Four months is bad enough. I want this sucker in heavy rotation asap.

I think it stays in theaters through August.

I think with the holiday weekend it can very well surpass $600 million.

co-signed

 

[Liam_H]

Releasing the DVD 4 months later is not a big deal, it'll basically have made all of its money by then save a few million that it'll take in from its small number of screens.

 

[TheVileOne]

Didn't Iron Man get a September or October DVD/Blu-ray release?

I think Disney realizes they can get that landmark $600 million here. And I think that means they will give theaters a bigger cut to keep it on screens longer. Studios do this sometimes so they can reach a certain milestone and get those bragging rights.

 

[Raiden]

Didn't Iron Man get a September or October DVD/Blu-ray release?

I think Disney realizes they can get that landmark $600 million here. And I think that means they will give theaters a bigger cut to keep it on screens longer. Studios do this sometimes so they can reach a certain milestone and get those bragging rights.

I also believe that studios give a damn about these milestones. Since TA is Disney's biggest movie ever, you can be sure that they'll help it reach that $600 mil.