The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[jyd_me]

I think it's got a good chance of 2.7 billion.

Explain....

 

[TheVileOne]

$1.7 billion maybe, I think $2.7 billion would be next to impossible.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well now that G.I. Joe is out of the way, that will account for an extra billion right there.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't understand where that 2.7bil came from?

 

[The Morningstar]

Easily 2.7 billion. Easily.

Spoiler

 

[murdock_matt]

I just don't see this "it falls apart in the 2nd half" complaint. I see it from time to time and don't get it. I chalk it up to differences in taste to moving the action along I suppose.

I completely love the movie, but once we hit the Howling Commando-montage, the film seems to lose a little steam. There just didn't seem to be a major conflict to overcome or a concrete objective that had to be accomplished. And I've seen the movie multiple times, and I see all the arguments as to why this film does NOT fall apart. But I felt that it did not (to my satisfaction) establish an endgame moment. It kinda felt like "We've done a superb job establishing the character... now we just gotta get him in the ice."

And like I said, I can't stress enough how much I LOVE this movie. And I don't want to be thought of as bashing it in any way... I just thought the ending was a little weak.

 

[murdock_matt]

Oh, and BTW, there's no way Avengers is hitting $2.7b WW. I wish it would. But what it has (and will have) accomplished is phenomenal. Couldn't be happier about the success of this film.

 

[The Morningstar]

I can't believe people were taking me seriously. COME ON!

 

[murdock_matt]

Whew!!

 

[The Morningstar]

I'm thinking more along the lines of 3.3 billion.

 

[Drummerdude7]

I'm thinking more along the lines of 3.3 billion.

That's a far more accurate prediction.

You should get a job as an analyst.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm thinking more along the lines of 3.3 billion.

What about 5 billion?

 

[The Morningstar]

Thanks. But i think that's still underselling it slightly. If you take into account the multipliers of 5.45, the memorial day holiday in America, the bank holiday in Britain, and the 7 quadrant appeal factor, it's adjusted ceiling after tax incentives and 3D enhancements could in actuality be around 3.9 billion.

 

[Liam_H]

Lol, after all this time I can't believe people don't realize when Morningstar is just f***king around.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm a slow learner...

 

[The Morningstar]

Sorry i can't help it.

I've drunk too much cider today and it is fricking boiling hot out here.

 

[Raiden]

Thanks. But i think that's still underselling it slightly. If you take into account the multipliers of 5.45, the memorial day holiday in America, the bank holiday in Britain, and the 7 quadrant appeal factor, it's adjusted ceiling after tax incentives and 3D enhancements could in actuality be around 3.9 billion.

Well, it's conceivable. Disney could show TA in their theme parks, and markets in places like North Pole still haven't been opened yet. I'm sure the Eskimos would put another cool 100 million into the fray. 5 billion isn't out of the question.



t:

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

I don't understand where that 2.7bil came from?

...From Morningstar bank account, of course!

t:

 

[The Morningstar]

I wish!

 

[KangConquers]

Avengers currently at 472 M domestic, and 747 M foreign. $109 M Dollars more and it beats Potter's WW total. $61 M domestic and it beats TDK's domestic total.

 

[Raiden]

Avengers currently at 472 M domestic, and 747 M foreign. $109 M Dollars more and it beats Potter's WW total. $61 M domestic and it beats TDK's domestic total.

I think both of these milestones will be achieved by the end of next week.

 

[warhorse78]

True, it's pretty unfortunate that Cap was squeezed into such a bad spot during the summer. I think if it had been released at Christmas, it would have been a 200-250M movie.

2011 was a horrid year for box office, for whatever reason, but Thor and Cap are two movies that deserved to make more than they did. Potter, Thor and Cap were easily the best films of last summer by a long shot.

Uh, well, in my book, I loved Rise of the Planet of the Apes the best, followed by Cap, Super 8 and then Thor.

But throughout the year, I would place Mission Impossible 4 behind Rise. I didn't care for Harry Potter.

 

[Infinity9999x]

Uh, well, in my book, I loved Rise of the Planet of the Apes the best, followed by Cap, Super 8 and then Thor.

But throughout the year, I would place Mission Impossible 4 behind Rise. I didn't care for Harry Potter.

I rated the best films of the summer as:
1.)Tie between Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Deathly Hallows (P2)
2.) Xmen: First Class
3.) Thor
4.) Cap

 

[Joeyjojo72]

I think Rise, which i enjoyed, benefits from the fact that everyone expected it to be a near-certain cash-grab POS when it was announced. When it turned out to be really really good I think the shock added to the acclaim.

I never saw MI4 and I regret it now. Brad Bird is simply the best at what he does.

 

[Octavias]

Again i am banking on 600 to 607 million domestic for this movie. The numbers are actually pretty amazingly consistant. If you break it down compared to TDK's daily performance it looks like this. Overall it is outpacing TDK at a rate of 114-115% of what TDK does. Every friday it averages 122% of TDK's take, Every saturday it averages 144% of what TDK did, every Sunday it averages 131% of TDK's take.
The weekdays with school still in TDK beats it every day. on mondays we see 81%, on tuesdays 87%, and 75% on wed and thursdays. the numbers arent decaying at an abnormal rate, this monday, for instance, we saw TA take in 90% of what TDK did. And it really isnt front loaded... sunday, for example has been 131%-131%-and 132% over the last 3 weeks. I have a feeling its virtually the same market with slightly inflated prices and 3D charges bumping it up. Im not sure how the holiday weekend will affect the numbers, but at this rate its safe to expect a 14% increase over what TDK totaled.

Internationally I have no real projections. my gut says between 1.6 to 1.7, but anything from 1.4to 1.9 could happen since there are too many factors to total....