The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[ironman_rick]

tied with dhp2 and avatar :\

Only because this movie open in the US 1 week later. If it had opened at the same time....we would have gotten the record.

 

[mclay18]

TASM will be the highest grossing SM movie thanks to oversea numbers.

No, it won't. No one outside of hard-core Marvel fans are excited by this film, the higher-ups at Sony aren't thrilled with the end product, and Sony's marketing is terrible. It'll be lucky to make half that amount.

 

[OcStat]

I am thrilled that The Avengers has been dominating with a force worthy of Earth's Mightiest Heroes. Even more thrilled that this summer has 2 more equally awesome super hero films coming up. It blows my mind how successful it's been, I was hoping it would break some records, but for it to literally SMASH the prior week 1 AND 2 contenders? It will be interesting to see what the other movies bring in, I figured TDKR would be the one to beat, and TASM would be the under dog due to the inevitable Raimi fan division. However after seeing what Avengers has done I think it is truly up in the air. I won't be surprised if TDKR doesn't make as much as some are expecting, and I still hope Spider-Man makes the most, as I've been waiting to see those two franchises face off.

That being said, I am just stoked to have my two favorite superheros Batman and Spider-Man AND The Avengers in one summer. I don't take stock in critics reviews, Rotten Tomatoes, or give a crap about box office numbers, because I know all 3 of these movies are going to be of an extra high standard. I am glad Avengers is raking it in, it is a testament to the people that have put the hard work in to bring the characters we love to the screen in the best comic adaptation yet. Will it be the best comic adaptation at the end of the summer?

 

[KangConquers]

TASM will be the highest grossing SM movie thanks to oversea numbers.

275 m domestic
650 m overseas

925 m worldwide

I could actually see this happening. I expect relatively lukewarm domestic box office for TASM. That said, brand recognition along with the foreign audience's hunger for spectacle will drive TASM's international receipts regardless of the quality of the film.

 

[Liam_H]

$275 million domestic take for ASM is not lukewarm, that is a very good result. It was originally planned for this to have a lower budget but I'm reading some places its around a typical blockbuster ($150-200 million).

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

No, it won't. No one outside of hard-core Marvel fans are excited by this film, the higher-ups at Sony aren't thrilled with the end product, and Sony's marketing is terrible. It'll be lucky to make half that amount.

People said the same things about Avatar.

I'm not saying ASM will be as successful but internet haters and studio rumors are piss poor indicators of box office preformance.

 

[Docker2.0]

That's my prediction as well: ASM will do well but fall short of the achievement of not only TA but the Raimi original trilogy. I don't feel much heat for this movie in the general audience, and reboots (or even prequels with completely different casts) tend to do less well than the originals. I admit that I'm 50/50 on seeing it myself, and will decide based on reviews whether it's worth trekking to the theater for.

TDKR -- that I can see making ridiculous amounts of money domestically. The North American box office is on fire this year, and I can see it making $500M+ easily, maybe even grossing more than TDK. It's overseas that I don't see it dominating. Foreign audiences seem to like Hollywood spectacle: CGI, big glossy effects, fantasy and 3D, or in other words, all the expensive things that they can't get in their own native movies. TDKR looks gloomy and dreary compared to the ZIP POW AWESOME popcorn appeal of TA.

I'll take that bet. No way TDKR makes $500M domestically. I'll even go lowern no way it makes $400M Dom. Not going to happen.

 

[KangConquers]

$275 million domestic take for ASM is not lukewarm, that is a very good result. It was originally planned for this to have a lower budget but I'm reading some places its around a typical blockbuster ($150-200 million).

I'm thinking more along the lines of $250 M, a number The Avengers made in 5 or 6 days, and that TDKR will make in 10 days at most. Still nothing to sneeze at, but far from the record breaking numbers of the original Spider-Man film.

 

[Juicy J]

I'll take that bet. No way TDKR makes $500M domestically. I'll even go lowern no way it makes $400M Dom. Not going to happen.

What makes you say that? You were alive in 2008, am I correct? TDK completely obliterated all expectations of what a comic book film can do and has been the standard by which every other superhero movie is compared to by everyone. People are paying attention to TDKR because of how massively successful TDK was. People will turn out in droves to this movie - I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it completely shatters the Avengers opening weekend record.

 

[Liam_H]

I'll take that bet. No way TDKR makes $500M domestically. I'll even go lowern no way it makes $400M Dom. Not going to happen.

I'm curious as to what makes you say this too because based on TDK alone I see it having enough juice to make it to $400 million domestic. Based on TDK alone I see it opening to around $150 million at least. Of course it all depends on it being good.

 

[Quasimod0]

I think that the fact that the avengers attracts so many families will make it the winner of the summer.

 

[Docker2.0]

What makes you say that? You were alive in 2008, am I correct? TDK completely obliterated all expectations of what a comic book film can do and has been the standard by which every other superhero movie is compared to by everyone. People are paying attention to TDKR because of how massively successful TDK was. People will turn out in droves to this movie - I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it completely shatters the Avengers opening weekend record.

A-list villian in Joker and Ledger's performance was amazing. Heck I saw it numerous times for him alone. But no one is clamoring to see Bane. Plus there is no dying of a major set star. I'm seeing $350M Dom max.

 

[OcStat]

Maybe it will take the opening weekend record back for Bats, but to keep it going through the 2nd like Avengers? Keeping theatres nearly full to capacity?

 

[Liam_H]

I'm thinking more along the lines of $250 M, a number The Avengers made in 5 or 6 days, and that TDKR will make in 10 days at most. Still nothing to sneeze at, but far from the record breaking numbers of the original Spider-Man film.

Yea but this was never intended to replicate the success of the original Spider-Man. Just make it relevant enough to make another franchise.

 

[Juicy J]

A-list villian in Joker and Ledger's performance was amazing. Heck I saw it numerous times for him alone. But no one is clamoring to see Bane. Plus there is no dying of a major set star. I'm seeing $350M Dom max.

I understand that, but I still say you're highly underestimating it. It's the end of one of the most popular movie franchises of all time; so many people I know are already going nuts over it. Granted I'd rather it not break TA records as I'm a marvel zombie to the core, but I could definitely see it happening.

Yea but this was never intended to replicate the success of the original Spider-Man. Just make it relevant enough to make another franchise.

Spider-man is my first love and hands down my favorite fictional character of all time, but even as such, I gotta agree with you. ASM is definitely going to gross far less than TA and TDKR.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

I'll take that bet. No way TDKR makes $500M domestically. I'll even go lowern no way it makes $400M Dom. Not going to happen.

I think TDKR is going to take a hit at the box office due to not having The Joker to offset Batman's non-personality which will result in fewer repeat viewings than TDK. Let's face it, Bane and Catwoman don't have the same character dynamic to make audiences come back to see their performance over and over like Ledger's Joker. With that said I still expect TDKR to get to 400-420 million.

 

[Quasimod0]

Also, people kept wanting to see the avengers over and over again because it was a ton of fun. And it really moves at a great pace.

 

[Quasimod0]

I think TDKR is going to take a hit at the box office due to not having The Joker to offset Batman's non-personality which will result in fewer repeat viewings than TDK. Let's face it, Bane and Catwoman don't have the same character dynamic to make audiences come back to see their performance over and over like Ledger's Joker. With that said I still expect TDKR to get to 400-420 million.

I agree. Repeat viewing are very important. Especially in the second weekend

 

[thalidomide]

I only watched TDK once in cinemas and I don't remember the last time I watched the movie on DVD.

 

[The Ironstar]

This one,for JOSS!! t:

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/dark-shadows-opens-with-550k-midnights/

SATURDAY AM, 6TH UPDATE: How do you know your new movie is in trouble? When exhibitors want your pic to share supersized screens with your holdover rival that’s a mega-hit. Oops. Turns out Warner Bros felt it had no choice but to buckle under the theaters’ demands to extend Disney’s big screen run. So Warner Bros’ Dark Shadows is losing a morning show and an evening show to Marvel’s The Avengers every day from Friday until May 25. Warner Bros insisted to me this will be revenue neutral because some large-screen venues were added for the staggered showtimes. But the two pics also are competing overseas. Disney thinks $1B is possible worldwide through Sunday for Avengers which is playing almost everywhere. Meanwhile Dark Shadows is eking out its big international debut this weekend in 42 major markets except Japan, Brazil, and Mexico. The comedic gothic thriller earned $770,000 in France where Depp and his family reside. But the studio’s new vampire sendup of the vintage TV daytime soap is a disappointment at the North American box office. Its audiences gave it only a ‘B-’ CinemaScore, and 61% of top film critics panned it.

 

[Quasimod0]

Its so long and kinda sad that i really never just pop it in and watch it. Hopefully tdkr moves a little more quickly and has some more excitement

 

[Quasimod0]

This one,for JOSS!! t:

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/dark-shadows-opens-with-550k-midnights/

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Let's face it, Bane and Catwoman don't have the same character dynamic to make audiences come back to see their performance over and over like Ledger's Joker.

I seriously believe that Bane and Catwoman are going to polarize the GA, the former in particular.

 

[Liam_H]

Because they think he's suppose to be a giant oaf and wonder why they made him such formidable opponent aside from the physical strength?

 

[kedrell]

I guess the CGI could work for aquatic hero movies, but the cost of doing them does not. Then there is the issue of having actors talk underwater. Blub, blub, blub complete with air bubbles when they speak.

Obviously, DC has a shortlist of characters to do before Aquaman becomes viable. The priority to do Namor is way back behind Ant Man, Black Panther, Dr Strange, Iron Fist and many more.

There would be no air bubbles for characters who breathe water. Do fish let off air bubbles? The only air bubbles would be from some surface dwellers wearing scuba gear.