The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Tony Stark]

I think TDKR is going to take a hit at the box office due to not having The Joker to offset Batman's non-personality which will result in fewer repeat viewings than TDK. Let's face it, Bane and Catwoman don't have the same character dynamic to make audiences come back to see their performance over and over like Ledger's Joker. With that said I still expect TDKR to get to 400-420 million.

Catwoman perhaps. She's definitely in Batman's top 5 enemies. Bane is a joke though. Pretty much the weakest villain in Batman's rogue gallery.

Add to that the look of Bane is stupid. A guy in an S&M outfit with a fluffy coat is hardly intimidating especially when compared with what they did with Joker.

 

[Superhero 101]

i wouldn't say Bane is Batman's weakest villain certainly not the greatest like Joker or Penguin or Two Face but he surely isn't his weakest i mean the dude broke him in the comics

 

[Liam_H]

Didn't want to get off topic since its such an issue now but I don't see how he's the weakest either. If Bane was basically what he was in Batman and Robin than sure but in the comics not so much. Sad that the general audience will have that perception going into TDKR.

 

[thalidomide]

Btw what's the status so far? The weekend is not yet over in the US right?

 

[kedrell]

Bane is to Batman what Doomsday is to Superman: A fairly one trick pony character created specifically to have a gotcha/OMGZ!!! moment. People IMO falsely lump Venom in there as well but to me Venom is a case of creative problem solving in storytelling(what to do/where to go with the symbiote once it was defeated). Aside from Knightfall, what great stories has Bane been in? Or aside from Death of Superman, what great stories has Doomsday been in? I can't think of any for either and that's because they were gimmick characters. They were created to do one thing and then there wasn't much left after that.

 

[kedrell]

Btw what's the status so far? The weekend is not yet over in the US right?

It truly is in about 35 minutes.

 

[Liam_H]

Btw what's the status so far? The weekend is not yet over in the US right?

What do you mean? Box office estimates are always just that, the actuals tomorrow will show if its a bit less or a bit more.

 

[thalidomide]

What do you mean? Box office estimates are always just that, the actuals tomorrow will show if its a bit less or a bit more.

Yup I was talking about the actual earnings sorry

 

[spider-neil]

No, it won't. No one outside of hard-core Marvel fans are excited by this film, the higher-ups at Sony aren't thrilled with the end product, and Sony's marketing is terrible. It'll be lucky to make half that amount.

according to whom? you're speculating.

 

[spider-neil]

I just want the acknowledgment from the academy for Joss and the movie (Best Director/Picture).

never in a million years will avengers take best picture

 

[spider-neil]

People said the same things about Avatar.

I'm not saying ASM will be as successful but internet haters and studio rumors are piss poor indicators of box office preformance.

^^^

reason ASM will be a success
1) it's been 5 years since the last spider-man movie not long enough for it to lose it's relavence (see the 15 years between superman 4 and SR)
2) spider-man is beloved the world over. even at the height of TDK it didn't make more than SM3 overseas.
3) ASM hasn't truly started it's advertising campaign. a country wide sweep of it's 'sizzle' shots will bring the crowds out in their droves. there are scenes in the 2nd trailer that are FANTASIC.
4) it will be the holidays and the week that spidey comes out there will be little to no competition for it, also TDKR that comes out two weeks later my be deemed too adult/violent/high brow for young childen

the only way I see this movie failing is if the movie sucks and if it sucks who cares if it fails or not?

 

[Gamma Burst]

Bane is to Batman what Doomsday is to Superman: A fairly one trick pony character created specifically to have a gotcha/OMGZ!!! moment. People IMO falsely lump Venom in there as well but to me Venom is a case of creative problem solving in storytelling(what to do/where to go with the symbiote once it was defeated). Aside from Knightfall, what great stories has Bane been in? Or aside from Death of Superman, what great stories has Doomsday been in? I can't think of any for either and that's because they were gimmick characters. They were created to do one thing and then there wasn't much left after that.

We have a winner here.

 

[Raiden]

This one,for JOSS!! t:

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/dark-shadows-opens-with-550k-midnights/

Well, you can tell DS is in trouble when WB can't even get IMAX to screen it exclusively even with an agreement in place, because IMAX wants to make money most of all and they knew they'll lose so many business if they switch TA to DS.

 

[spider-neil]

Well, you can tell DS is in trouble when WB can't even get IMAX to screen it exclusively even with an agreement in place, because IMAX wants to make money most of all and they knew they'll lose so many business if they switch TA to DS.

cinema theaters are ruthless and if they deem a movie isn't going to make money they shift it out to make room for a movie that is.

 

[Raiden]

Bane is to Batman what Doomsday is to Superman: A fairly one trick pony character created specifically to have a gotcha/OMGZ!!! moment. People IMO falsely lump Venom in there as well but to me Venom is a case of creative problem solving in storytelling(what to do/where to go with the symbiote once it was defeated). Aside from Knightfall, what great stories has Bane been in? Or aside from Death of Superman, what great stories has Doomsday been in? I can't think of any for either and that's because they were gimmick characters. They were created to do one thing and then there wasn't much left after that.

I feel the same way. Because neither Doomsday nor Bane had much of a history with their respective superhero due to the fact that these two are relatively new, DC decided to bring them both up to speed quickly by killing Superman and crippling Batman upon their introduction. The problem with it is that the gimmick only works once, and after those events neither of them could've done anything memorable or up to par with their first accomplishment, so they turned out to be one-trick pony without anything to substain their new fame. After looking at TDKR's trailer, I thought Hardy tried hard but the character himself just isn't very interesting, especially when he comes after Ledger's Joker. I think it will definitely affect TDKR's box office, at least for the repeated viewing.

 

[Casius--J]

Bane is to Batman what Doomsday is to Superman: A fairly one trick pony character created specifically to have a gotcha/OMGZ!!! moment. People IMO falsely lump Venom in there as well but to me Venom is a case of creative problem solving in storytelling(what to do/where to go with the symbiote once it was defeated). Aside from Knightfall, what great stories has Bane been in? Or aside from Death of Superman, what great stories has Doomsday been in? I can't think of any for either and that's because they were gimmick characters. They were created to do one thing and then there wasn't much left after that.

I agree with this, but when talking with movies thats ok because we only expect to villians once anyway. I like Bane and he was who I wanted to be in this picture BUT I can see that he's not a very appealing character for the GA.

Even my dad has to ask me who was that? When he saw the trailer and he knows comics, not good!

^^^

reason ASM will be a success
1) it's been 5 years since the last spider-man movie not long enough for it to lose it's relavence (see the 15 years between superman 4 and SR)
2) spider-man is beloved the world over. even at the height of TDK it didn't make more than SM3 overseas.
3) ASM hasn't truly started it's advertising campaign. a country wide sweep of it's 'sizzle' shots will bring the crowds out in their droves. there are scenes in the 2nd trailer that are FANTASIC.
4) it will be the holidays and the week that spidey comes out there will be little to no competition for it, also TDKR that comes out two weeks later my be deemed too adult/violent/high brow for young childen

the only way I see this movie failing is if the movie sucks and if it sucks who cares if it fails or not?

I agree with you here, Spidey is HUGE in the UK, Spain and France. Trust me people are buzzing for TASM and once they start advertising it with billboards and tv spots; people will find themselves in the cinema.

I can't speak for the other countries but I'm pretty sure its the same situation too.

Honestly I think Spidey will make most of his money internationally.

 

[buttercup]

^^^

reason ASM will be a success
1) it's been 5 years since the last spider-man movie not long enough for it to lose it's relavence (see the 15 years between superman 4 and SR)
2) spider-man is beloved the world over. even at the height of TDK it didn't make more than SM3 overseas.
3) ASM hasn't truly started it's advertising campaign. a country wide sweep of it's 'sizzle' shots will bring the crowds out in their droves. there are scenes in the 2nd trailer that are FANTASIC.
4) it will be the holidays and the week that spidey comes out there will be little to no competition for it, also TDKR that comes out two weeks later my be deemed too adult/violent/high brow for young childen

the only way I see this movie failing is if the movie sucks and if it sucks who cares if it fails or not?

I guess we'll see? I'm not a actually a fan of comics, so I'm pretty much the "general audience" and like 95% of people who will potentially be seeing the movie in the theaters, my knowledge of Spidey comes from cultural submersion in and the Raimi movies.

Nothing I've seen so far has excited me, but I could be wrong. I just have a deep distaste for reboots; I am much more of an X-Men fan (those Saturday morning cartoons got me good as a kid) and still couldn't muster much enthusiasm for X-Men: First Class.

Which was a pretty good movie, and yet it didn't make that much of a dent box office-wise. Made less than Thor and about the same as Cap.

 

[spider-neil]

I guess we'll see? I'm not a actually a fan of comics, so I'm pretty much the "general audience" and like 95% of people who will potentially be seeing the movie in the theaters, my knowledge of Spidey comes from cultural submersion in and the Raimi movies.

Nothing I've seen so far has excited me, but I could be wrong. I just have a deep distaste for reboots; I am much more of an X-Men fan (those Saturday morning cartoons got me good as a kid) and still couldn't muster much enthusiasm for X-Men: First Class.

Which was a pretty good movie, and yet it didn't make that much of a dent box office-wise. Made less than Thor and about the same as Cap.

x-men doesn't approach spidey in terms of popularity, few SOLO heroes do.

 

[Roose Bolton]

Bane is to Batman what Doomsday is to Superman: A fairly one trick pony character created specifically to have a gotcha/OMGZ!!! moment. People IMO falsely lump Venom in there as well but to me Venom is a case of creative problem solving in storytelling(what to do/where to go with the symbiote once it was defeated). Aside from Knightfall, what great stories has Bane been in? Or aside from Death of Superman, what great stories has Doomsday been in? I can't think of any for either and that's because they were gimmick characters. They were created to do one thing and then there wasn't much left after that.

I agree with you about Doomsday, but Bane has had some great stories other than Knightfall, like Legacy,Bane of the demon, No man's land, and most importantly 36 issues of Secret Six, one of the best comics published in the last 5 years.
Bane may not be a well known character but I can definitely see people liking this version that Nolan and Tom Hardy are bringing,that said I'm not expecting DKR to make Avengers money.

 

[Slushy]

It would be cool if The Avenger's broke Titanic's record at least.

 

[Silver Surfer]

So in a little more than a week, TA has already made more money than TDK ever did in it's entire run? Geez....

 

[J.Howlett]

So in a little more than a week, TA has already made more money than TDK ever did in it's entire run? Geez....

4 years later, inflation, more screens/theatres, international box office taking off and 3D.

Just sayin'....

Either way, The Avengers franchise is probably going to be the biggest of this genre for the foreseeable future. Seeing as what Avengers has done now, imagine in the next 6 to 8 years with two more films, plus inflation.

Three Avengers films are probably going to bank more than 7 billion dollars combined worldwide when this thing is all over.

 

[Keyser Soze]

ASM has no chance.
tdkr, I don't see it happening either. Even tdk wasn't exactly huge overseas, for example.

Mamma Mia! beating The Dark Knight to #1 in the UK box office and grossing much more overall remains one of our country's greatest shames.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Bane is to Batman what Doomsday is to Superman: A fairly one trick pony character created specifically to have a gotcha/OMGZ!!! moment. People IMO falsely lump Venom in there as well but to me Venom is a case of creative problem solving in storytelling(what to do/where to go with the symbiote once it was defeated). Aside from Knightfall, what great stories has Bane been in? Or aside from Death of Superman, what great stories has Doomsday been in? I can't think of any for either and that's because they were gimmick characters. They were created to do one thing and then there wasn't much left after that.

Bane's arguably the best he's ever been in Gail Simone's Secret Six.

 

[Pink Ranger]

Mamma Mia! beating The Dark Knight to #1 in the UK box office and grossing much more overall remains one of our country's greatest shames.

Goes to show that TDK needed more musical numbers in it.