The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[thalidomide]

I think we are way off topic

 

[marcvader]

At the end of the day I want to know about tickets sold because that will stop the inflation/3D boost arguments.

 

[thalidomide]

I think someone posted an article about that.

 

[Tony Stark]

The thing that's so amusing about all this is that Chris Nolan's original "Batman Begins" did NOT even crack the Top 20 weekend openings in comic book movies.

Both "Fantastic Four" films, yes even "Rise of the Silver Surfer" made it ahead over BB.

So when analysis were projecting how "The Dark Knight" would be based on BB's performance, they were projecting around FF or maybe the lower end of the X-Men numbers.

But to have a franchise jump from #22 in "Batman Begins", all the way to #1 in "The Dark Knight" is something really no one foresaw.

It wasn't until Heath Ledger's death that drove the masses to see the buzz about "Ledger's last film before he died". Ledger also had the mass appeal of women from his chick flick days (something Christian Bale doesn't have) which I think to this day, TDK still holds the record for most female audience in the movie theaters for a comic book film at over 50%. Of course, TDK was also a good film that gave itself legs which drove more and more people to see it.

You also have to remember that Warner Bros re-released TDK twice. First on November 14, 2008 and then again on January 23, 2009 and ran it all the way until March. So TDK was around for almost 8.5 months straight in theaters. Both re-releases was what pushed TDK from $996 million and bumped it up to a cool $1 billion.

Part of that is that BB was released on a Wednesday. I think it might have cracked the top 20 if released on a Friday. But also BB was more of a slow but steady type release. It held up very well in the following weeks, even if it never made a huge splash.

The film itself sets up the Joker, so I think fans of BB were prepared for the coming movie, When Heath was announced, and the movie started to gain steam and the viral marketing, that pretty much pushed things to the limit.

As I was saying on the TDKR thread, you can only capture lightning in a bottle once. TDKR will make alot of money but you aren't going to see any kind of jump and most likely it may not perform as well.

I bring up SM1 and 2 as an example. Most people think that SM2 is the better film, but it made less money. Well that's mainly because you can't capture what happened with the first film. It was the first movie to break the 100M weekend barrier, and it held that record for several years.

I've said from the beginning that I always thought Avengers was very underestimated when it came to B.O. returns and TDKR was overestimated. I don't know of one single publication before the film was released that thought Avengers would have a chance at being the no. 1 movie of the year at the box office. Now those same pundits are saying it's likely the biggest of the year.

 

[Docker2.0]

I think we are way off topic

Stay out of this newbie!

 

[Docker2.0]

Just saw on Box Office Mojo that by this Friday, the Avengers should be a top 6 all time movie. Hopefully by Monday, a top 3 or 4. It's going to take a lot of leg for this to take a top 2 spot.

 

[Iceman]

$500m by the end of next weekend should happen. After that it's all about how the subsequent weekends hold.

 

[Travesty]

Part of that is that BB was released on a Wednesday. I think it might have cracked the top 20 if released on a Friday. But also BB was more of a slow but steady type release. It held up very well in the following weeks, even if it never made a huge splash.

The film itself sets up the Joker, so I think fans of BB were prepared for the coming movie, When Heath was announced, and the movie started to gain steam and the viral marketing, that pretty much pushed things to the limit.

As I was saying on the TDKR thread, you can only capture lightning in a bottle once. TDKR will make alot of money but you aren't going to see any kind of jump and most likely it may not perform as well.

I bring up SM1 and 2 as an example. Most people think that SM2 is the better film, but it made less money. Well that's mainly because you can't capture what happened with the first film. It was the first movie to break the 100M weekend barrier, and it held that record for several years.

I've said from the beginning that I always thought Avengers was very underestimated when it came to B.O. returns and TDKR was overestimated. I don't know of one single publication before the film was released that thought Avengers would have a chance at being the no. 1 movie of the year at the box office. Now those same pundits are saying it's likely the biggest of the year.

Yeah, I've been saying the exact same thing over in TDKRs boards, except I've been using the "Empire Strikes Back made less money than Star Wars" analogy, and I totally agree with your points. Although, I didn't expect The Avengers to make so much money.

 

[Xeno]

I guess when all is said and done I was absolutely wrong with my prediction.

I have to admit that I was totally wrong. I predicted that The Avengers would top out at $1.1 billion worldwide. At the time I thought I was being bold to make such a prediction when so many others in this thread were poor-mouthing the film. Turns out I was poor-mouthing it, too. It is sure to skate past that mark on its way up. Never have I been so happy to be so wrong.

 

[Frodo]

Keep in mind with TDK, the trailers sold it as much a Joker movie as a Batman movie. By that, I mean it felt like Joker was going to get a lot of screen time. So far, for TDKR, it seems to focus more on Batman disappearing. Bane, and even Catwoman, hasn't really felt like much of a presence in the trailers, unlike Joker. I just don't know if selling the idea of a story about Bruce Wayne being broken and then rising again is enough to give it TDK numbers, but I guess we'll see. At first, I thought both Avengers and TDKR would do about the same total worldwide. But at the rate Avengers is going, it seems less likely.

Good Point. I attempted to make the same point on the Batman boards but I don't think it was recieved too well.Lol. Ultimately both films are gonna do their studio's proud, but I do wonder if TDKR will make people want to return to the thearter multiple times to re-live the story again. I guess it depends on if the film ends more triumphant like TDK or more down beat like BR.

 

[Vartha]

Just saw on Box Office Mojo that by this Friday, the Avengers should be a top 6 all time movie. Hopefully by Monday, a top 3 or 4. It's going to take a lot of leg for this to take a top 2 spot.

I would die a happy man if that were to happen

 

[jacobed]

I hope it ends up number 1. Avatar and Titantic don't deserve the top 2 spots.

 

[jyd_me]

Are there any projections for week 3 (domestic) and total gross yet?

 

[Iceman]

$460m(+) by end of week 3 (according to me). So I'd say $90m+ for the week. Haven't seen anything official although the weekend is expected to be high 50s up to 60. It's going to need high single digit (m) weekdays for that. Double figures would be amazing though.

 

[50yroldfffan]

First click on this link and play the music for a little drama in the background as you read this post haha http://youtu.be/Ji1KMkmJklU

This movie reminds me of the great Annual issues Marvel put out in the 60's.
If you'll indulge me first a little history for the young ones at SHH who weren't born in simpler times.
In the mid 60's when reading and collecting comics there were only 12 marvel titles.
Some of the issues had to combine some of their hero's to give them exposure since Marvel was delegated only so many slots on news stands to sell their wares. The world was controlled by DC and Marvel wasn't considered much of a threat so they weren't muscled out of the Market.
How times have changed! lol
I'll never forget running down to the corner mom and pop convenience store to buy comics with my $1.50 allowance burning a hole in my pocket and always knowing if the newest issues had arrived by the smile on the store owners face when I walked in.
It was our bond. lol
I'd grab my 10 issues, Avengers, Spiderman, X-Men, Daredevil, Thor, Strange Tales (Fury/Dr. Strange), Tales of Suspense (Iron Man/Cap), Tales to Astonish (Sub-Mariner/Hulk), Fantastic Four and others then rush home to read them from cover to back while getting lost in the world of Stan Lee, Jack Kirby and many other fine artist.
At 12 cents a piece my allowance went quite a ways in opening up a world that DC comics couldn't capture at that time.
I was hooked on Marvel!
The only thing I looked forward to more then the monthly issues was their once a year Annual Issues reserved for their biggest titles.
We're talking at least double the length stories filled with more action! larger splash pages and pin ups all for 25 cents a piece!
Big time fun for a kid in grade school and budding artist.
That's what The New Avengers movie is to me!
The accumulation of the single issues (prior movies) all brought together into one big glorious Annual Issue "Marvels Avengers" (the movie).
It's the only way to describe it through these seasoned eyes.
It brought me back to those simpler times of Annual issues and a $1.50 burning a hole in my pocket.
It brought me back to the joy of getting lost in the world of Marvel but now my comic page was the size of a Imax screen and the 13 dollar ticket price was burning a hole in my pocket.
Simpler times indeed... or at least for a couple of hours.
Nuff said!

 

[spider-neil]

I hope it ends up number 1. Avatar and Titantic don't deserve the top 2 spots.

in your humble opinion...

 

[Tony Stark]

Actuals came in just under the estimates
$103,052,274

I think it should be able to hold 60-70M next weekend, and Battleship will open 55 or under.

 

[Iceman]

Actuals came in just under the estimates
$103,052,274

I think it should be able to hold 60-70M next weekend, and Battleship will open 55 or under.

70m would mean another record (3W)

 

[webs]

Less $150k that's still pretty impressive..!!

 

[Joeyjojo72]

I think that shows the studios have gotten pretty good at estimating their daily bo.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Actuals came in just under the estimates
$103,052,274

I think it should be able to hold 60-70M next weekend, and Battleship will open 55 or under.

Boxoffice.com has battleship opening with 51M; I see it doing even less. The reviews aren't helping it either.

 

[marcvader]

What's the 3rd weekend record?

 

[Raiden]

Boxoffice.com has battleship opening with 51M; I see it doing even less. The reviews are helping it either.

I believe TA can gross 60-65 mil in its 3rd week, beating out Battleship.

 

[Jordanstine]

Actuals came in just under the estimates
$103,052,274

I think it should be able to hold 60-70M next weekend, and Battleship will open 55 or under.

As much as I'd love to see that, I don't think $70M is happening.

I'm projecting $55M-$60M but hopefully you're right.

3rd weekend record is $68.5M by Avatar.

Avengers is going up against Transformers the Boat version, and the Dictator next weekend. I'm also not sure how many screens it's going to be losing this week (if it loses any at all).

 

[bruised]

I don't understand the focus on how it does in the box office. Shouldn't it be more important if the movie is good or not? After all, Transformers made a lot of money, even though it sucked.