The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Stark Bauer]

Yeah but the all time adjusted BO champ is Gone With The Wind - which is the Chick Flick of all time. Anyway, make mine Marvel and make it to number 2 DOM hopefully.

 

[Rev]

The thing that's so amusing about all this is that Chris Nolan's original "Batman Begins" did NOT even crack the Top 20 weekend openings in comic book movies.

Both "Fantastic Four" films, yes even "Rise of the Silver Surfer" made it ahead over BB.

So when analysis were projecting how "The Dark Knight" would be based on BB's performance, they were projecting around FF or maybe the lower end of the X-Men numbers.

But to have a franchise jump from #22 in "Batman Begins", all the way to #1 in "The Dark Knight" is something really no one foresaw.

It wasn't until Heath Ledger's death that drove the masses to see the buzz about "Ledger's last film before he died". Ledger also had the mass appeal of women from his chick flick days (something Christian Bale doesn't have) which I think to this day, TDK still holds the record for most female audience in the movie theaters for a comic book film at over 50%. Of course, TDK was also a good film that gave itself legs which drove more and more people to see it.

You also have to remember that Warner Bros re-released TDK twice. First on November 14, 2008 and then again on January 23, 2009 and ran it all the way until March. So TDK was around for almost 8.5 months straight in theaters. Both re-releases was what pushed TDK from $996 million and bumped it up to a cool $1 billion.

What we sometimes forget is that Dark Knight was not allowed to be shown in China due to the negative light that they believed they had been portrayed in. It makes one wonder how much more money could have been made globally.

 

[Weadazoid]

All I know is we can all rejoice

Great movie with great moments

clearly exceading all expectations

Clearly a runner for the biggest winner this year


Congrats to all who have been suportive from day 1

 

[YoMaMa84]

I think it will finish just below Titanic at about 630 million domestic.

 

[Iceman]

https://***********/#!/ERCboxoffice/status/202405911338295296

Monday's top movies: 1. THE AVENGERS $8.2M ($381M), 2. DARK SHADOWS $2.3M ($32M), 3. THINK LIKE A MAN $500k ($82M)

 

[mc7791]

All I know is we can all rejoice

Great movie with great moments

clearly exceading all expectations

Clearly a runner for the biggest winner this year


Congrats to all who have been suportive from day 1

I am one of the people that has been very happy to be supportive of this awesome film. I thought it would do well like around 800 million total but did not expect the critical acclaim as well as the repsonses from all the filmgoers worldwide. This moive is dream come true and I am very happy that so many are enjoying it as well

 

[Raiden]

https://***********/#!/ERCboxoffice/status/202405911338295296

Monday's top movies: 1. THE AVENGERS $8.2M ($381M), 2. DARK SHADOWS $2.3M ($32M), 3. THINK LIKE A MAN $500k ($82M)

Is there a projection or estimate for what this movie will make on its 3rd week?

 

[Liam_H]

We can go by a couple of examples, but I'll choose TDK considering it had one of the bigger openings that had good WOM and that didn't drop like a brick. So that would give it a 3rd weekend of $58.5 million.

 

[Weadazoid]

Is there a projection or estimate for what this movie will make on its 3rd week?

More then likely it will be between 50 and 60 Million


- simmilar drop expected


-This did increadible Saturday and SUnday business

 

[Raiden]

We can go by a couple of examples, but I'll choose TDK considering it had one of the bigger openings that had good WOM and that didn't drop like a brick. So that would give it a 3rd weekend of $58.5 million.

If this estimate comes true, then TA won't break Avatar's 3rd week gross of 69 mil, but since Battleship has been projected by BoxOffice.com to make 51 mil in its debut, TA could very well wins #1 for three consecutive weeks.

 

[Jordanstine]

Is there a projection or estimate for what this movie will make on its 3rd week?

Based on last week's drops it could look like this:

Mon = $8.2M

Tue = $7.6M

Wed = $6.1M

Thu = $5.6M

 

[hitmanyr2k]

Same. I find it despicable that Cameron's worst two movies are the top two grossing movies of all-time. I really think he put almost all of his talent into Terminator 2 with the last of it going into True Lies & then WHAM no more talent in Cameron.

But I doubt Avengers will get 700 mil Domestic & 2 bil WW.

Are you serious with this comment? Say what you want about the movie but it's baffling how anyone can think Titanic or even Avatar was talentless filmmaking considering the scope of both projects.

 

[Pond]

Are you serious with this comment? Say what you want about the movie but it's baffling how anyone can think Titanic or even Avatar was talentless filmmaking considering the scope of both projects.

I like them both, specially Titanic (wich is a disaster-pulp-melodrama of the classiest, populist kind, i say it complementary, wich acieves its goals perfectly) but to me they fall really short of the Cameron of the eighties and early nineties. Thats more an admission of mine of how big his talent was back then more than an acusation of his nowish talents.

 

[eddy]

James Cameron's last great film was T2. Avatar is good for the 'wow' factor but it doesn't hold up under repeat viewings and without the 3d.

 

[Superhero 101]

I think it will finish just below Titanic at about 630 million domestic.

I don't see avengers making it pass 550 million domestic I don't think it can make 600 domestic If it can that'd be great

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

It wasn't until Heath Ledger's death that drove the masses to see the buzz about "Ledger's last film before he died".

It wasnt Ledger's last film before he died. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus was Ledger's last film he was in. He didnt finish shooting it so they used 3 stand ins (Depp, Colin Farrell, and Jude Law) to finish the film for him as the same character.

Ledger also had the mass appeal of women from his chick flick days (something Christian Bale doesn't have) which I think to this day, TDK still holds the record for most female audience in the movie theaters for a comic book film at over 50%.

Bale has a TON of female appeal. Not sure where you get this from? As does Aaron Eckhart.

 

[KangConquers]

I don't see avengers making it pass 550 million domestic I don't think it can make 600 domestic If it can that'd be great

I see Avengers topping off at around $565 M domestic, and $800 M ww.

 

[rashad]

You also have to remember that Warner Bros re-released TDK twice. First on November 14, 2008 and then again on January 23, 2009 and ran it all the way until March. So TDK was around for almost 8.5 months straight in theaters. Both re-releases was what pushed TDK from $996 million and bumped it up to a cool $1 billion.

TDK earned that in a single run by re-expansion, as in an increase in theater count, not a re-release. Which are two different things. It never left theaters.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=darkknight.htm

 

[marcvader]

That's a long ass run then.

 

[Quasimod0]

And the avengers did it in like 3 weeks right?

 

[Gamma Burst]

And the avengers did it in like 3 weeks right?

You're right.

 

[Quasimod0]

Why the wink?

 

[Liam_H]

It wasnt Ledger's last film before he died. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus was Ledger's last film he was in. He didnt finish shooting it so they used 3 stand ins (Depp, Colin Farrell, and Jude Law) to finish the film for him as the same character.

It was marketed as his last film or his last completed role.

 

[marcvader]

And it came out just a few months after his death while Parnassus came out the following year.

 

[rashad]

And the avengers did it in like 3 weeks right?

Yes, but I was just correcting that particular statement. Nothing more.