The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Raiden]

It can't do it without 3D boost. If you look at Avengers and TDK they had about the same attendane wise, and if you adjust TDK for inflation it would be about 588M. Avengers will go past 600M with 3D boost, so the two are very similar.

IOW for TDKR to beat the record, it would have to set attendance records that theater chains probably couldn't handle the amount of business for the number of screens available.

I expect TDKR to open somewhere in the 170-180M range, which is excellent.

It would give TDKR the secong biggest opening behind TA, and I can see that happening. But I just don't think it will have the same kind of draw across demographics that would make people go see it in droves like TA has done, because while the audience has never seen so many Marvel superheroes team up on the big screen, they have already seen two Nolan Batman movies. I think novelty played a big role in its huge success, that's why it is able to create a box office tsunami this summer.

 

[Jordanstine]

Some quick long term (conservative) projections...

5th weekend (June 1) = $21.0 million ($7.7 million Tue-Thu)
6th weekend (June 8) = $12.3 million ($7.7 million Mon-Thu)
7th weekend (June 15) = $7.5 million ($4.2 million Mon-Thu)
8th weekend (June 22) = $4.2 million ($2.9 million Mon-Thu)
9th weekend (June 29) = $2.4 million ($1.7 million Mon-Thu)

$47.4 million weekend + $24.3 weekdays = $71.7 million more by the end of June?

If that's accurate... The Avengers would be $595.6 million before July starts?

Give or take +/- 3 million so it should be around $592 million - $595 million.

Outside chance to break $600 million after the 1st weekend of July, or on July 4th holiday week?

According to RTHeimdall Thursday did a whopping $2.7M, that's an increase! My Tue-Thu estimates were just conservatively at $7.7M but it's about $8.4M.

Man, I need to revise my projections higher now.

Loving it!

 

[Jordanstine]

P.S.

The Avengers is now approx at $532.4M which is just about $900K away from TDK.

 

[Tymminator]

After Friday,Avengers will take that 3 spot.

 

[Tony Stark]

It would give TDKR the secong biggest opening behind TA, and I can see that happening. But I just don't think it will have the same kind of draw across demographics that would make people go see it in droves like TA has done, because while the audience has never seen so many Marvel superheroes team up on the big screen, they have already seen two Nolan Batman movies. I think novelty played a big role in its huge success, that's why it is able to create a box office tsunami this summer.

I agree, but I think it will open big, mostly because there aren't many other big draws in July around it. But I think it will open big, but it will do less domestically than TDK, because of what you say. It should do better internationally assuming it gets into China which TDK did not.

 

[Jordanstine]

If I had all the money made from this movie, one of the first things I would get is this real life full functioning Iron Man Suit!

[YT]_SLHU9CCe_Y[/YT]

 

[Xeno]

It can't do it without 3D boost. If you look at Avengers and TDK they had about the same attendane wise, and if you adjust TDK for inflation it would be about 588M. Avengers will go past 600M with 3D boost, so the two are very similar.

IOW for TDKR to beat the record, it would have to set attendance records that theater chains probably couldn't handle the amount of business for the number of screens available.

I expect TDKR to open somewhere in the 170-180M range, which is excellent.

Where did you get the total attendance numbers for the two films? I haven't seen that on any of the industry sites. The only figure I've ever seen was for opening weekend ticket sales, and that had The Avengers selling 26 million+ tickets as opposed to TDK's 22 million.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

If I had all the money made from this movie, one of the first things I would get is this real life full functioning Iron Man Suit!

[YT]_SLHU9CCe_Y[/YT]

Genius idea.

 

[Liam_H]

Where did you get the total attendance numbers for the two films? I haven't seen that on any of the industry sites. The only figure I've ever seen was for opening weekend ticket sales, and that had The Avengers selling 26 million+ tickets as opposed to TDK's 22 million.

You can come up with a really rough estimate by using BOM adjusted for inflation. If the TA stopped at $588 million than yea it would have sold less tickets than TDK because of 3D. But its not going to its gonna go pass $600 million so ticket sales should be similar.

 

[Jordanstine]

Where did you get the total attendance numbers for the two films? I haven't seen that on any of the industry sites. The only figure I've ever seen was for opening weekend ticket sales, and that had The Avengers selling 26 million+ tickets as opposed to TDK's 22 million.

Going by this: http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/?adjust_yr=1&p=.htm

The Avengers has sold approximately 67.2 million tickets in 26 days.

TDK's lifetime is 74.2 million tickets and that was approximately 8 months worth.

 

[KangConquers]

So I started poking around BO Mojo, and realizing what a huge market Japan is...Avengers is currently looking at 1.42-1.45 Billion without Japan. Japan will make it break $1.5 Billion...

Unreal.

 

[Tony Stark]

Where did you get the total attendance numbers for the two films? I haven't seen that on any of the industry sites. The only figure I've ever seen was for opening weekend ticket sales, and that had The Avengers selling 26 million+ tickets as opposed to TDK's 22 million.

There's nothing official, just guesstimates at boxoffice.com. The numbers are close as you point out.

I'm only saying that for TDKR to break the OW record without 3D boost, using your numbers there it would have to sell close to 35-40M in tickets. Physically that just cannot happen, I mean there's only so many seats in a theater, so many screens. Heck Avengers nearly brought down AMC's credit card system with late sales.

 

[Tony Stark]

If you want the breakdown, I read somehwhere that approximately 50% of Avengers tickets opening weekend were 3D. To make things easy let's round off 207 to 200M. so at 26M, 13M tickets were 3D boosted. 3D movies are about 50% more expensive than a non 3D ticket. So of the 13M for a non 3D film, you'd have to sell 50% more tickets to make up the price difference. so you're talking over 30M tickets at this point, and that's just to tie the record. So let's be generous lets say 32M to beat the record. Think about all the sell outs to Avengers, AMC's credit card system going down. Cleaning the theaters between showings, other logistical problems. Eventually you hit critical mass.

 

[Raiden]

If I had all the money made from this movie, one of the first things I would get is this real life full functioning Iron Man Suit!

[YT]_SLHU9CCe_Y[/YT]

If I were RDJ, I'd use some of that cool 50 million I earned from TA to buy a functional suit like that and wear it at Hollywood parties.

 

[YJ1]

Here's the ticket that officially put Avengers number three on the all-time charts and at the head of its genre. The minute I bought it bells went off, confetti and balloons rained down and I was told it was THE ticket and that I had won a prize! It was an amazing moment.

The Avengers is such a remarkable film that I consider this to be a true honor. Well done to all that contributed to this amazing box office. I except this honor on all of your behaves.

 

[Golgo-13]

It would give TDKR the secong biggest opening behind TA, and I can see that happening. But I just don't think it will have the same kind of draw across demographics that would make people go see it in droves like TA has done, because while the audience has never seen so many Marvel superheroes team up on the big screen, they have already seen two Nolan Batman movies. I think novelty played a big role in its huge success, that's why it is able to create a box office tsunami this summer.

Not to mention, Spider-Man is that same month - which i assume will get more repeat viewings due to Spider-Man being a much more kidding friendly type hero, and kids will be out of school.

 

[T"Challa]

Ice Age also gets released a week before TDKR, the last ice age movie made almost 900 mill so it could count as legit competition

 

[Punisher Rising]

So I started poking around BO Mojo, and realizing what a huge market Japan is...Avengers is currently looking at 1.42-1.45 Billion without Japan. Japan will make it break $1.5 Billion...

Unreal.

I truly hope so. I want to see it mop the floor at the Japan box office and top Avatar as the highest grossing movie of all-time. I suppose we'll see in due time.

 

[Xeno]

Going by this: http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/?adjust_yr=1&p=.htm

The Avengers has sold approximately 67.2 million tickets in 26 days.

TDK's lifetime is 74.2 million tickets and that was approximately 8 months worth.

I didn't know that they gave ticket estimates, so thanks for pointing me to that table. The Avengers has been racking up numbers incredibly fast. It's shocking to me that the other record-setting movies took so long to accumulate their totals by comparison.

There's nothing official, just guesstimates at boxoffice.com. The numbers are close as you point out.

I'm only saying that for TDKR to break the OW record without 3D boost, using your numbers there it would have to sell close to 35-40M in tickets. Physically that just cannot happen, I mean there's only so many seats in a theater, so many screens. Heck Avengers nearly brought down AMC's credit card system with late sales.

Theater capacity is now proving to be the real ceiling for the biggest blockbusters in the US. When you consider that The Avengers sold every available IMAX ticket in North America and theaters were actually turning away customers, the movie's mass appeal becomes apparent. It's no wonder that the second week's total was over $100 million when you consider the massive demand for tickets that exceeded capacity in a lot of places.


There were reports a few months back that TDKR had sold out some showings in IMAX for its opening day. If it manages to do that for the entire weekend its numbers should be great. Where I live IMAX prices are 20% higher than 3D and 60% higher than 2D. Will people take "IMAX inflation" into account when assessing TDKR's totals? Because that will be a factor, and WB is probably counting on it.

 

[Golgo-13]

Ice Age also gets released a week before TDKR, the last ice age movie made almost 900 mill so it could count as legit competition

TDKR has alot more other movies to share it's b.o with, whereas Avengers had nothing major for weeks.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

If TDKR's runtime is as sizable as some rumors say, combined with the overall bleak tone of its story it could hamper its replay factor a bit.

 

[Liam_H]

I truly hope so. I want to see it mop the floor at the Japan box office and top Avatar as the highest grossing movie of all-time. I suppose we'll see in due time.

I highly doubt Japan will add $1 billion to the WW total.

There were reports a few months back that TDKR had sold out some showings in IMAX for its opening day. If it manages to do that for the entire weekend its numbers should be great. Where I live IMAX prices are 20% higher than 3D and 60% higher than 2D. Will people take "IMAX inflation" into account when assessing TDKR's totals? Because that will be a factor, and WB is probably counting on it.

Yes IMAX will be a factor but not to the extent of 3D considering how many more screens there are for 3D than IMAX.

 

[Mysteryman]

We were talking about the UK where it is out tomorrow.

Yeah,my bad .
Sorry about that .

 

[Avenger]

TDKR has alot more other movies to share it's b.o with, whereas Avengers had nothing major for weeks.

Yeah, I think The Bourne Legacy is going to put a huge dent in TDKR when it releases on August 3.

 

[Xeno]

TDKR has alot more other movies to share it's b.o with, whereas Avengers had nothing major for weeks.

On the contrary, The Avengers did face some major movies in its first three weeks, in the form of three big budget films (Dark Shadows, Battleship and MIB3*). Those movies were all expected to do better than they did, and their under-performance allowed TA to annihilate them.


* If you don't believe that those films were considered major competition, just read through the first five parts of this thread. The moaning about how they would knock TA out of the top spot from the doomsayers was constant for three solid months.