With all due rerspoect, if what you get to see right next to you is the only reality you concede to exist, then this is not a really valid evidence of anything.
We don't have one single clue as to how to calculate what's the effect of this, just that there is one.
If the Internet tells you that people are acting one way and the actions of the people around you tell you they are, in fact, acting the exact opposite way, which are you inclined to believe?
I don't know anyone, ANYone, who had planned to see this movie that backed out because of the shootings. As a matter of fact I'd say that more people I know went to see this over all the other superhero movies in the past. I don't expect that argument to carry that much weight with any of you all but think about it: who around you has refused to see this film because of the tragedy in Colorado? Ask around, check twitter, check Facebook. You'll find that there's next to no one.
As I've said time and time again: the people that were going to see this movie will see this movie. That's the bottom line.
I'm not saying there was no negative effect, I'm saying that people are making the effect out to be greater than it actually is.
People predicting that this film was going to break $200 million were being unrealistic to begin with. Sure it was possible, but it was extremely unprobable. Now that it looks like its going to make around 170, people are citing this as the reason but I feel as if that's an invalid argument.
Granted there's no way to tell whether I'm wrong or right, there's no way we can rub a crystal ball to see how this wouldve played out, but that's my honest analysis on the whole thing. Feel free to disagree with me, but I'm sticking to that until I see cold hard evidence that this genuinely turned a large amount of people away, which I haven't so far.
