The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - Part 20

[Dark Raven]

https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/255ceb25-10f4-45a3-a4cd-6d4e02fb77dd

Comcast upped its bid for Sky to £14.75 per share.

Wait a minute. That says it contains inside information and is not for public release. How come it's been publicly released then?

 

[KBX]

Come on Disney/Fox just graciously step away......

 

[KBX]

Guys, 2018 will go down as a heck of a year for Marvel Studios fans for a multitude of reasons.

2018 is peak Marvel if this deal goes down. It really can not get much better.

 

[Marvel united]

We just might be in the end game here.







https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brian-roberts-talking-bob-iger-193200374.html

Disney...

Just let Comcast have it and walk away with the rest. We now know that Comcast values Sky more than Fox. That's clearly what they're REALLY AFTER here

 

[wobbly]

If Roberts & Iger really hate each though there's a potential trap here.

Fox might step away from Sky, putting out all the right signals for Comcast to stay the hell away from the Disney deal, but Roberts goes for it anyway.

They ain't allowed to make any official deal so there would be zero guarantee Comcast would do the right thing if Fox did concede Sky.

Hopefully sane business heads will see the value in a compromise here, but you never know when ego's are in play.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

We just might be in the end game here.







https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brian-roberts-talking-bob-iger-193200374.html

I'm holding my breath until July 27, but I feel like we're on an upswing along the roller-coaster ride at the moment.

 

[Bach]

I don't know. I have the feeling that Fox's bid was just to see Comcast's reaction. From my POV, there's still a chance that they'll bid even higher.

It'd be good if this just ended once and for all, though.

 

[Big Bang]

https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/255ceb25-10f4-45a3-a4cd-6d4e02fb77dd

Comcast upped its bid for Sky to £14.75 per share.

I know they have a short window to respond, but damn they had their finger on the trigger for that response.

Fox's move is next.

If Roberts & Iger really hate each though there's a potential trap here.

Fox might step away from Sky, putting out all the right signals for Comcast to stay the hell away from the Disney deal, but Roberts goes for it anyway.

They ain't allowed to make any official deal so there would be zero guarantee Comcast would do the right thing if Fox did concede Sky.

Hopefully sane business heads will see the value in a compromise here, but you never know when ego's are in play.

I think cooler heads may just prevail. If they don't, cold, hard numbers probably will.

Comcast's current bid for Sky is now ~$34.2B (at current exchange rates). If they were to top Disney's bid for Fox, at say $80B, that puts their debt for the entire deal at ~$110+B, and any sane shareholder should go berserk if Roberts should try to take on that level of debt. Even approaching $100B is the danger zone. I think their current debt is already at $44B. Would not be pretty if they went for broke for both Sky and Fox.

Now, this is also before the UK has stepped in and adjusted the valuation for Sky based on the current Disney+Fox deal, could put any final acquisition amount of even just the 61% into the $40B range.

I'm expecting 1-2 more bids from Fox, just to help run out the clock. Once Fox concedes, then the UK will step in for an adjustment.

 

[Big Bang]

I don't know. I have the feeling that Fox's bid was just to see Comcast's reaction. From my POV, there's still a chance that they'll bid even higher.

It'd be good if this just ended once and for all, though.

Maybe. I think given how quickly Comcast responded if they wanted feelers. They sure got them.

Disney...

Just let Comcast have it and walk away with the rest. We now know that Comcast values Sky more than Fox. That's clearly what they're REALLY AFTER here

There is strategy in prolonging it. One is to help run out the clock. Two is to make Comcast pay more (before adjustment).

If they quit early, they run the risk of Comcast finalizing a Sky deal and turning their attention to Fox. Best to keep them occupied.

 

[Detective Conan]

If they quit early, they run the risk of Comcast finalizing a Sky deal and turning their attention to Fox. Best to keep them occupied.

CNBC reported that Comcast would likely reconsider their bid for Fox if they just get Sky. I would suspect that at this point Roberts wants Sky more than Fox and would likely be content with just getting that without prolonging another bidding war for the Fox assets.

Case in point.

Fox sought to acquire the remaining 61 percent of the company with its bid, and that business would eventually have gone to Disney -- assuming that transaction also is completed.
Fox initially went after Sky in December 2016, offering 10.75 pounds per share, but was held up over concerns that the tie-up would give Murdoch too much influence over Britain’s media.
Comcast has been expected to abandon its bid for Fox and focus instead on winning Sky, according to Jonathan Chaplin, an analyst at New Street Research LLC. “Of all the assets in the Fox portfolio, they probably view Sky as the most strategically important,” he said earlier in a note.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...paign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business

 

[Detective Conan]

Likelihood of another Comcast offer for Fox assets has gone down: Faber

 

[Big Bang]

CNBC reported that Comcast would likely reconsider their bid for Fox if they just get Sky. I would suspect that at this point Roberts wants Sky more than Fox and would likely be content with just getting that without prolonging another bidding war for the Fox assets.

Case in point.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...paign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business

I would agree. At this juncture, he may feel it would be better to just close on Sky, and allow Disney to close on Fox, and work out a deal later. I've heard Comcast's 30% share in Hulu being tossed around as an asset they might offer to Disney in exchange for their 39% stake in Sky (possibly along with the remaining Marvel rights). Though Comcast would likely still have to pay out some form of cash to Disney since their Sky share is very likely to be worth a lot more than their Hulu stake. Either way, a direct transaction will be cheaper than the back and forth bidding.

Disney could out of this with everything but the ownership of the Spider-Man film rights. To think this would have been unthinkable a year ago.

 

[Detective Conan]

If Roberts & Iger really hate each though there's a potential trap here.

Perhaps. Though I see this an opening.

Fox might step away from Sky, putting out all the right signals for Comcast to stay the hell away from the Disney deal, but Roberts goes for it anyway.

Very unlikely at this point. Numerous analysts are indicating that Comcast would likely settle for Sky, and leave the Fox assets with Disney. If Roberts gets Sky then he would likely feel little need to spend another billion dollars on a much more risky bid for Fox that might accomplish nothing except make Disney pay even more Fox. Though in all fairness, Comcast does have a higher debt capacity than Disney but even then furthering a bidding war after you've just attained what you're competitor(Bob Iger) once dubbed the 'crown jewel'. Winning Sky after you forced Disney to pay more for Fox is more than enough to satisfy Roberts ego.

And this isn't like Roberts failed bid for Disney back in 2004. He's very likely to get something that will be greatly optimal for the global expansion of his company. Going after Fox again after getting Sky is like winning a hundred million dollar lottery and trying to push your luck by buying another lotto ticket and hoping you're lucky the second time.

They ain't allowed to make any official deal so there would be zero guarantee Comcast would do the right thing if Fox did concede Sky.


Hopefully sane business heads will see the value in a compromise here, but you never know when ego's are in play.

It isn't so much a question of whether Comcast is willing to bid again for Fox but a question of whether they're able to. The odds are pretty much stacked against them -- The DOJ already approved the Disney deal, the Fox shareholders(most of them anyway) have determined that a Comcast deal still faces more regulatory risk than a Disney deal even after AT&T/Time Warner deal had been approved. And that's not even mentioning the billions dollars of debt they would owe should they get Fox(very unlikely at this point).

Does Roberts want both Fox and Sky? The answer: Yes. Here's a much better question: Would Roberts be able to acquire both Fox & Sky? Not at this rate. Not after all the aforementioned disadvantages going against Comcast. It'd likely be too much for Comcast to get both Sky & Fox. Roberts is tenacious, sure, but he isn't stupid, he can see where the wind is blowing and eventually he'll have to give up something( Fox) to get something(Sky).

 

[Tymminator]

I would agree. At this juncture, he may feel it would be better to just close on Sky, and allow Disney to close on Fox, and work out a deal later. I've heard Comcast's 30% share in Hulu being tossed around as an asset they might offer to Disney in exchange for their 39% stake in Sky (possibly along with the remaining Marvel rights). Though Comcast would likely still have to pay out some form of cash to Disney since their Sky share is very likely to be worth a lot more than their Hulu stake. Either way, a direct transaction will be cheaper than the back and forth bidding.

Disney could out of this with everything but the ownership of the Spider-Man film rights. To think this would have been unthinkable a year ago.

Indeed. In fact in the past, many SHH posters (many who are now banned actually) used to love to throw that “fact” around like is was equal to the law of gravity, Marvel Studios getting F4, X-Men and a bit furtther back, Spider-man was laughed as less than a pipe dream.

Well, <singing> ...”fairy tales can come true, they can happen to you”....

 

[Fallen]

M:I - Fallout is getting amazing reviews from early screenings.

I would have liked to see Christopher McQuarrie direct a Marvel movie. Thank you, Star Wars fans .

 

[Tymminator]

M:I - Fallout is getting amazing reviews from early screenings.

I would have liked to see Christopher McQuarrie direct a Marvel movie. Thank you, Star Wars fans .

Sometimes the vile, bullying nature and short-sightedness of extreme fandom really gets out of hand, and it always bites all of us in the butt.

 

[Detective Conan]

DOJ Anti-Trust Division seeks to appeal the AT&T/Time Warner decision.

[YT]1Cmy_FYZh38[/YT]

Biggest takeaway from this: The DOJ still very much opposes a possible Comcast/FOX merger much in the same way they did with the AT&T/Time Warner which is the root cause for concern for many Fox shareholders reticent about going with content/distributor merger over Disney which is more compatible. There is a lot of the vertical elements about the Comcast/Fox merger that rubs the DOJ the wrong way. This attempted appeal will likely go nowhere but it does provide an insight into what is driving the trepidation for a Comcast merger from many among the Fox shareholders. If Fox shareholders decide to abandon the Disney deal in favor of a deal with Comcast it would likely be AT&T/Time Warner 2.0--which a lot of the Fox shareholders(including Rupert Murdoch would rather avoid).

In other news Charles Gasparino(the reporter from the video above that I just reported) is all saying that his source close to Comcast are telling him even after their bid for Sky Roberts isn't throwing in the towel...yet.

https://***********/CGasparino/status/1017194047876878338?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

More accurately Roberts still wants to be in the Fox game but can't(unless they either get some extra partners to aid them in extra financing for the Fox assets after they get Sky). Make no mistake: Roberts still very much wants to get Fox(more specifically Star India). Right now, I reckon he's seriously considering his options on how to proceed --which are very few. Me thinks Comcast continued bidding for Sky could be a way of testing the waters and seeing whether they can resolve the issue of Sky before deciding or not to go after Fox. Big Bang I'll take back what I initially said a bit and concede that Comcast very much wants to have its cake and eat it too-- they want to secure Sky in an timely manner all while trying to convince other firms/partners to assist them in their potential next bid for Fox. So perhaps its best for Fox to keep them busy.

But the key here is whether or not Comcast can win the bidding war for Sky in time before that crucial Fox shareholder vote for Disney on the 27th. The earliest they would have to bid again for Fox would be on the 20th and Fox has given no indication it wants to give up the bidding war(yet). So what can make or break this whole thing is contingent on Comcast's confidence to beat the clock to get both Sky and Fox.

 

[Big Bang]

DOJ seeks to appeal the AT&T/Time Warner decision.

Good. AT&T said they wouldn't raise prices on consumers at the trial, and then that was one of the first things they did after the deal closed. AT&T just cannot be trusted, and they should be broken up.

In other news Charles Gasparino(the reporter from the video above that I just reported) is all saying that his source close to Comcast are telling him even after their bid for Sky Roberts isn't throwing in the towel...yet.

Hopefully Roberts will come to realize on his own that he should just focus on Sky. Hopefully Comcast can be kept busy for another 2 weeks.

 

[MasterCat]

Good. AT&T said they wouldn't raise prices on consumers at the trial, and then that was one of the first things they did after the deal closed. AT&T just cannot be trusted, and they should be broken up.

Would be healthy for the United States if United States v. AT&T was another Supreme Court case. It's like a hydra.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think the idea that Roberts is crazy and unpredictable gets overstated. While that might represent his personality, he is accountable to a board and shareholders and can't just go bat-s*** crazy.

Investors don't like surprises. If Comcast comes out of nowhere with a crazy-high offer, that's likely to tank the stock.

So if we're hearing Comcast is more interested in Sky than Fox at this moment, that's probably the truth. Comcast may want to surprise Disney if they can, but they don't want to surprise shareholders if they can help it.

 

[Cobalt Panther]

British Government Clears Fox’s Sky Bid as Battle for Pay-TV Giant Heats Up

The British government has finally given the go-ahead to 21st Century Fox’s bid to buy the 61% of Sky it does not already own, clearing the way for an expensive shootout between Fox and Comcast for control of Europe’s biggest pay-TV player.

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/21st-century-fox-sky-bid-approved-comcast-1202868291/

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Happening status: it literally is

 

[Flint Marko]

I’ll just go ahead and say it: I have zero clue what this “sky” stuff is and have no idea how it effects Disney/Marvel if at all.

 

[Dark Raven]

I’ll just go ahead and say it: I have zero clue what this “sky” stuff is and have no idea how it effects Disney/Marvel if at all.

You don't know what Sky is?

Well it's not this:

Spoiler

 

[Chip Chipperson]

It really doesn’t, maybe it just effects how long it’ll take for the deal to get done, but still. Fox’s assets are pretty Disney’s to lose at this point. Which they won’t.

If Comcast gets sky, they probably bow out and Disney gets the fox assets. If fox wins sky, then Comcast likely tries to come up with another offer to buy fox, trying not to walk away empty handed. Just let Comcast have it, I say.