ADollarADay
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The interesting point is that Sony is ABSOLUTELY planning on bringing Spidey into the Venomverse. If Feige isnt ok with either having two separate Web Slingers, or sharing Holland, this could be another obstacle in extending the deal.
I think it's unlikely this deal gets resigned. The only thing I'm not 100% sure about is if the deal runs through FFH or a sequel to it.
Ignore for a second that the author was wrong about Venom not releasing. He's right about his overall conclusion.
https://www.mtrnetwork.net/news/sony-lost-spider-man/
Because once this current handshake deal is over, Disney/Marvel have no incentive to continue to work with Sony for free. Remember, this deal is basically one major studio making a film for another major studio, and getting none of the money made from the film. This is where the merchandising rights come in. Sony is looking to build its own cinematic universe outside of the MCU with other Spider-Man characters they own. They have a Venom movie scheduled to come out next year (not happening) as well as a Black Cat & Silver Sable movie. But heres the thing: If the merchandising rights are anything like film rights, guess who owns the merchandising rights for both those films? Disney/Marvel do. Therefore the idea that Disney/Marvel will keep the terms of the deal the same once the trilogy ends makes no sense. What business would agree to a deal that involves them keeping what they already have with nothing extra coming in?
Disney has no reason to want to resign with Sony unless Sony loosens the grip they have on the license. Their sandbox pretty much doubled. SM did not really add all that much to the BO of CW and IW. Being tied to the MCU really helped SM:HC. SM classical merchandise is pretty consistent year in and year out. Movie sales merchandise get a spike when a movie is released. Disney still has to pay Sony a percentage of the BO gross for SM movies (even spin offs), albeit less than the 3.5% up to 35MM they had to. Disney has no incentive to resign the deal as is.
Sony has plans for the characters they have the live action movie rights to. They have no reason to give up the grip they have on the license unless Disney pays them. It's a valuable license and they can exploit accordingly.
Either something's gotta give or the contract won't be resigned.



