Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

[Greenlite]

Mendelson's daily WW update.

hat means Wonder Woman is the second-biggest comic book superhero movie ever, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, that doesn’t feature Batman, Spider-Man or Iron Man. But that may not be the case for much longer.

More:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...-soars-to-745-million-worldwide/#1800dbde2ca4

She has a shot of becoming the biggest superhero "solo" movie that's not Batman, period t:

Gotham City Sirens should be a smaller scale film with a relative small budget.

Margot's pregnant so might have to wait till at least 2019 for GCS. or t: for Margot

Wonder Woman's box office run has been so much fun to follow!! It's having a phenomenal run! Exceeding everyone's expectations and heading for 800+ M world wide!! Incredible!

Edit: If she goes past 800 then only 13 people would have been right according to this poll!!

I know right?

PS IE's prediction was quite incredible lol, is he from the future?

 

[scotyb91]

Wonder Woman 38 days - 368.78M
The Hunger Games 38 days - 372.02M

7th weekend - 5.58M

Still possible I think WW 7th weekend 6.5-7.0?

If she can average 35% holds for the rest of the weekends and weekdays for roughly 10 plus more weeks, then she'll be able to reach $400M domestically . But thats a big if lol.

 

[Flemm]

If she can average 35% holds for the rest of the weekends and weekdays for roughly 10 plus more weeks, then she'll be able to reach $400M domestically . But thats a big if lol.

Not sure about your math there.

Hunger Games got there after week 12, Wonder Woman has almost caught up in terms of the raw number, and it's been ahead by a lot since week 2 (in terms of the weekly gross).

 

[regnak]

Wonder Woman is now over $4 million in the United Arab Emirates. $8.2 million in Indonesia. $1.7 million in Turkey. So much for the claim that there is an anti-Israeli bias against Wonder Woman in Muslim countries.
When you think about it, the only countries were Wonder Woman was banned are ruled by dictatorial regimes that support terrorism. The people in those countries didn't ban Wonder Woman. The ruling elite did
because they want to use Israel as a distraction so their people won't see how oppressive their rule is.

Really? BvS did $7 Million in the UAE, $14M in Indonesia and $5.4 million in Turkey. Something is going on there. of course in Turkey it is more their great leader Erdogan. A year of two back he gave a speech about how women should not laugh. WW is lucky not to have been banned there too.


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=superman2015.htm

 

[StormC]

She has a shot of becoming the biggest superhero "solo" movie that's not Batman, period t:

 

[Greenlite]

She has a shot at passing that if she reaches 400M before August ends and is dropping by 1/3 per week/weekend

 

[Greenlite]

Really? BvS did $7 Million in the UAE, $14M in Indonesia and $5.4 million in Turkey. Something is going on there. of course in Turkey it is more their great leader Erdogan. A year of two back he gave a speech about how women should not laugh. WW is lucky not to have been banned there too.


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=superman2015.htm

My friend who visited there said he told the public what bread to eat

 

[scotyb91]

Not sure about your math there.

Hunger Games got there after week 12, Wonder Woman has almost caught up in terms of the raw number, and it's been ahead by a lot since week 2 (in terms of the weekly gross).

I calculated 35% drops each weekday and weekend and got $400M in a matter of 16 weeks. It seemed right, but, like you suggested, it's probably way off lol. If you can or have time, I'd like to compare your math to mine. I dont mind being wrong .

 

[scotyb91]

Not sure about your math there.

Hunger Games got there after week 12, Wonder Woman has almost caught up in terms of the raw number, and it's been ahead by a lot since week 2 (in terms of the weekly gross).

I calculated 35% drops each weekday and weekend and got $400M in a matter of 16 weeks. It seemed right, but, like you suggested, it's probably way off lol. If you can or have time, I'd like to compare your math to mine. I dont mind being wrong .

 

[iEquinox]

I calculated 35% drops each weekday and weekend and got $400M in a matter of 16 weeks. It seemed right, but, like you suggested, it's probably way off lol. If you can or have time, I'd like to compare your math to mine. I dont mind being wrong .

Yeah your math is off.
Let's say Wonder Woman makes $5.5M in the next weekdays. (Avoiding using last weekdays because they were inflated a lot by the holiday)

If the weekend estimate holds that would put Wonder Woman at $374.3M after Thursday, after a week total of $15.635M

Total after n amount of weeks with 35% drop then be equal to:
374.3+(15.635*0.65)*((1-(0.65^n))/(0.35))

If n=5, that gives it pretty much exactly $400M. So that would take about 5 weeks after Thursday, not 16. 16 more weeks with 35% drop would give it $403.3M.

 

[scotyb91]

Yeah your math is off.
Let's say Wonder Woman makes $6.25M in the next weekdays. (Avoiding using last weekdays because they were inflated a lot by the holiday)

If the weekend estimate holds that would put Wonder Woman at $375M after Thursday, after a week total of $16.385M

Total after n amount of weeks with 35% drop then be equal to:
375+(16.385*0.65)*((1-(0.65^n))/(0.35))

If n=4, that gives pretty much exactly $400M. So that would only take 4 weeks after Thursday, not 16. 16 more weeks with 35% drop would give it $405.4M.

Thank you so much for showing me the math. Like I've said before, you're the master (I am paraphrasing a tad lol). Also, I should have worded my post differently because I meant 16 weeks total, not 16 more weeks after Thursday lol. My apologies for the confusion.

My 35% drops were measured from a $15.1M 6th week total, which is probably why my math is different from yours. But, I like your math more than mine haha.

 

[iEquinox]

Thank you so much for showing me the math. Like I've said before, you're the master (I am paraphrasing a tad lol). Also, I should have worded my post differently because I meant 16 weeks total, not 16 more weeks after Thursday lol. My apologies for the confusion.

My 35% drops were measured from a $15.1M 6th week total, which is probably why my math is different from yours. But, I like your math more than mine haha.

Changed mine to $15.635M for a $5.5M weekdays, I realized that my initial guess seemed a bit too high.

But with $15.1 this week it would still reach $400M at day one of week 12 of release :P

 

[Greenlite]

Changed mine to $15.635M for a $5.5M weekdays, I realized that my initial guess seemed a bit too high.

But with $15.1 this week it would still reach $400M at day one of week 12 of release :P

Do you think it has a shot at 410M?

 

[scotyb91]

Changed mine to $15.635M for a $5.5M weekdays, I realized that my initial guess seemed a bit too high.

But with $15.1 this week it would still reach $400M at day one of week 12 of release :P

I like the sound of that

 

[iEquinox]

Do you think it has a shot at 410M?

It would need about $41M more after this weekend to get there. That would be a 5.07x multiplier off the 6th weekend. That would be very hard to achieve, although not impossible. Guardians of the Galaxy(by far the leggiest MCU movie(3.53x multiplier)) managed a 4.71x multiplier off its 6th weekend, while The Avengers even managed a 5.53x multiplier(but it needed the help of a big Labor Day expansion to get there).

Since this multiplier has been achieved before, we have to conclude that there is at least a chance. But it would need some insane late legs to get there. The Avengers needed a big Labor Day expansion to get there, and GotG had pretty much no competition and really strong legs and still couldn't get there. So it has a shot, although it looks like it's a very long shot.

 

[Greenlite]

It would need about $41M more after this weekend to get there. That would be a 5.07x multiplier off the 6th weekend. That would be very hard to achieve, although not impossible. Guardians of the Galaxy(by far the leggiest MCU movie(3.53x multiplier)) managed a 4.71x multiplier off its 6th weekend, while The Avengers even managed a 5.53x multiplier(but it needed the help of a big Labor Day expansion to get there).

Since this multiplier has been achieved before, we have to conclude that there is at least a chance. But it would need some insane late legs to get there. The Avengers needed a big Labor Day expansion to get there, and GotG had pretty much no competition and really strong legs and still couldn't get there. So it has a shot, although it looks like it's a very long shot.

Thanks

It has the Thanksgiving holidays

#coexistwithJL

 

[gerrym51]

I'd say it has a chance to make 400 million in North America and a chance to make 400 million overseas.

either way or both it will be very close.

 

[mclay18]

I'm not sure. I think WB will be a bit more low key with the DC stuff there. They did a bit too much last summer attempting BvS damage control and a lot of things fell apart.

I think we'll get plenty of Aquaman stuff, probably a new JL trailer, but not sure beyond that. They haven't made a ton of progress on their schedule after Aquaman yet. They could announce WW2 and give it a 2020 release. I also could see them maybe firming up the date for The Batman, but Reeves may still be involved with Apes promo then.

I'm pretty sure they will announce release dates at Comic Con for The Batman and Wonder Woman 2, but from the way Geoff Johns & Patty are talking, they are working on a script treatment and/or putting sequel ideas together. I imagine WB is starting negotiations with Patty for WW2, sign off on a deal, and then bring her out at Comic-Con with a release date.

That indicates to me that WB wants WW2 ready for June or November 2019. Aquaman came together quickly after Johns & James Wan nailed the script treatment and rehired Will Beall to write the screenplay.

 

[UncleSam1776]

WB doesn't typically use Comic-Con to announce movies or release dates for DC. The last announcement they made at Comic-Con was in 2013 when they announced BvS.

 

[Micromind]

She has a shot of becoming the biggest superhero "solo" movie that's not Batman, period t:

Isn't WW already the biggest 'solo' superhero origin movie ?

Which superhero Origin movie earned more than Wonder Woman ?

 

[-Arya-]

Isn't WW is already the biggest 'solo' superhero origin movie ?

Which superhero Origin movie earned more than Wonder Woman ?

It's second only to Rami's original Spiderman domestically. It beat out Deadpool.

 

[Greenlite]

Isn't WW already the biggest 'solo' superhero origin movie ?

Which superhero Origin movie earned more than Wonder Woman ?

solo superhero movie including origins and sequels

It's second only to Rami's original Spiderman domestically. It beat out Deadpool.

Yup, and only behind Batman (TDK, TDKR) and Iron Man 3 if it gets passed Spidey (403M?)

 

[iEquinox]

Boxofficemojo updated the foreign number, weekend was $6.9M according to boxofficemojo. So that's a 55.5% drop from last weekend. The weekdays did end up a bit higher than estimated though. OS total is now $377.1M.

That's the biggest foreign weekend drop so far but I guess that's not surprising given the competition this weekend; both Spider-Man and DM3 made about $140M OS.

 

[Marathon]

The overseas drop was harsher than preferable, but hopefully the drops will be softer from hereon out.

 

[Flemm]

Apes is not a lightweight overseas either. If WW gets to 400/400, it will certainly have earned it against a laundry list of established franchises.