Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

[Juan1193]

Don't expect it to hold quite that good, feel 26 is more likely, but we've been proven wrong each week.

Oh and with opening day #s starting to come in, Transformers isn't going to do 46 this weekend, that franchise is DONE everywhere but China as it's opening day of 15 million is going to lead to under 65 million 5 day and probably 35-40 million weekend. Revenge of the Fallen made 62 million opening day in 2009.

Everything people thought might stand in the way of Wonder Woman breaking out this summer (Pirates, Baywatch, Mummy, Cars, Transformers) has either bombed or fallen well below expectations. Perfect storm for Wonder Woman (along with the movie being good) has led to this point.

Yeah I believe those are optimistic numbers all around but like iEquinox said maybe they got tired of underestimating Wonder Woman. My prediction is around 26 million but I've been wrong countless times before with Wonder Woman so who knows.

And yes this has definitively been a perfect storm for Wonder Woman! All the movies that were supposedly going to cannibalize her numbers either proved they are a dead franchise in North America (Pirates 5, Transformers 5, Cars 3) or severly underperformed (The Mummy). It also helps that nobody predicted her having such incredible holds!

Edit: The July competition should prove to be more fierce though with Spider-Man, Apes and Despicable Me 3.

 

[Flemm]

Wow that Transformers number is really low. Very curious to see how things go for WW this weekend.

 

[Iceman]

Mid-high $20ms for a 4th weekend would again be amazing.

 

[StormC]

I think both DM3 and Homecoming are locks for 100M+ openings so WW might start falling off once we finally get some more weekends worth writing home about.

Homecoming might do ~120M if it's 80+ on RT. I think a lot of people who already saw WW but are craving the next good action movie have stayed home for the rest of June, so if Homecoming gets great reviews they'll be there opening weekend. But by then WW should be damn near close to 350M if not already there.

 

[Dark Raven]

Why do people want to go and watch Transformers? Double Toasted all gave it some old BS or a **** you rating.

 

[Osiris-Rex]

Why do people want to go and watch Transformers? Double Toasted all gave it some old BS or a **** you rating.

I guess the only way to really know is to wait until one of them dies and dissect their brain. Maybe we could put Liv Moore to work on that.

 

[Marathon]

WW risen to 2nd on Fandango now, 3rd on Movietickets (17% share).

 

[Greenlite]

What I find interesting is with all the talk of Wonder Woman getting banned in Lebanon and the seeming lack of enthusiasm in other Middle Eastern countries (except Israel, of course) is that so far in the United Arab Emirates
Wonder Woman has made $2.6 million so far. That's by far more than Wonder Woman has made in countries like Hungary, New Zealand, Bolivia, or Portugal, which have roughly the same population.

Sorry for being a d*** but

Our local reviewer said WW made 2M in NZ already 2 weeks ago, so the b.o. sites' information might be lagging a bit for foreign updates

week ending 7th June=$1,951,659
week ending 14th June =$968,487
Total as of 14th June=$2,920,146

https://www.flicks.co.nz/blog/box-office/box-office-top-10-june-7-2/
https://www.flicks.co.nz/blog/box-office/box-office-top-10-june-14/
https://www.facebook.com/kate.rodger.14/

Afterall which country had 2 consecutive female prime minsters

but WW's doing great in UAE ya

 

[Greenlite]

Deadline says TF5 will have 63-65M, it will fluctuate but sub 70M is a real possibility.

While we are mocking the property will TF5 kick WW's a$$ overseas, or just in China where WW is on her way out anyway?

Was talking to a friend in the weekend, she didn't like Logan due to its somber and sad theme esp the ending, I recommended WW to her and she was like ok...hey TF is coming next weekend! and we were like well not my cup of tea as it always end with robots meshed together and you can't see anything. But ya TF might still be king outside US.

 

[Juan1193]

Deadline says TF5 will have 63-65M, it will fluctuate but sub 70M is a real possibility.

While we are mocking the property will TF5 kick WW's a$$ overseas, or just in China where WW is on her way out anyway?

Was talking to a friend in the weekend, she didn't like Logan due to its somber and sad theme esp the ending, I recommended WW to her and she was like ok...hey TF is coming next weekend! and we were like well not my cup of tea as it always end with robots meshed together and you can't see anything. But ya TF might still be king outside US.

Its underperforming overseas as well. It still might effect Wonder Woman though but only time will tell by how much. Unless its a breakout hit in China and makes Fast and Furious numbers, Transformers making less than a billion is a very strong possibility now. There's even a high chance it doesn't even get to 900 million...

 

[dhandler01]

Only 30% drop the weekend after Father's Day would be pretty insane. I expect it to end up below that, but so far every weekend hold has exceeded expectations so who knows. Guess they got tired of underestimating Wonder Woman after their last two forecasts for WW were both over $6M too low

Think about it...if those numbers held WW in weekend 4 would be just below Cars 3 in weekend 2. That is crazy t:

 

[Greenlite]

Its underperforming overseas as well. It still might effect Wonder Woman though but only time will tell by how much. Unless its a breakout hit in China and makes Fast and Furious numbers, Transformers making less than a billion is a very strong possibility now. There's even a high chance it doesn't even get to 900 million...

and the USD is freaking strong right now, makes it harder to crack 1B these days, I saw an article saying IM3 which made 1.3B would only make slightly over 1B today.

 

[StormC]

Man, the American economy was really in the toilet during the early 2010s.

 

[brandeezy89]

TF is probably gonna end up under GOTG2's total

 

[Flemm]

Transformers really did some obscene numbers overseas for a while there. I guess that's a bit inflated due to currency exchange differences, but still.

And the budget for this one is listed at 260M. Crazy stuff.

 

[Greenlite]

Transformers really did some obscene numbers overseas for a while there. I guess that's a bit inflated due to currency exchange differences, but still.

And the budget for this one is listed at 260M. Crazy stuff.

If they make under 900M with 300-400M coming from China where you only take 25% profit...

 

[spiderman2]

I think both DM3 and Homecoming are locks for 100M+ openings so WW might start falling off once we finally get some more weekends worth writing home about.

Homecoming might do ~120M if it's 80+ on RT. I think a lot of people who already saw WW but are craving the next good action movie have stayed home for the rest of June, so if Homecoming gets great reviews they'll be there opening weekend. But by then WW should be damn near close to 350M if not already there.

I am not sure how much Homecoming and Apes are really going to affect things. like you said WW may be at about 350 million USA by then any way and also by then that will be week 6 and 7 and it is said that most movies have already made about 90% of there money after weekend 5 any way so even with out big movies coming out I am not sure how much more WW would like have left any way.

and the USD is freaking strong right now, makes it harder to crack 1B these days, I saw an article saying IM3 which made 1.3B would only make slightly over 1B today.

I am not sure if it is really harder to make a billion now days as the internation market continutes to get bigger and bigger but I do remember hearing that with out 3d that iron man 3 would have only made about 900 million instead of about 1.2 billion. The movie made about a extra 300 million by 3d whitch is why I am surprised that not like all movies are in 3d seems like a easy way to make more money.

 

[Ardyns]

Pirates movies have insane budgets as well. At World's End had a 300 million Production budget. It also failed to make a billion.

 

[StormC]

I am not sure how much Homecoming and Apes are really going to affect things. like you said WW may be at about 350 million USA by then any way and also by then that will be week 6 and 7 and it is said that most movies have already made about 90% of there money after weekend 5 any way so even with out big movies coming out I am not sure how much more WW would like have left any way.

If July was as barren as June was, WW could have legged it to 400M pretty easily. So it's already looking at a 20-30M deficit because of that, but if both Spider-Man and Apes are great movies, it might stop dead and lose another potential 10-15M. Such drops might keep it from being able to beat stuff like SS on a worldwide scale (745M).

 

[Flemm]

I guess being in an early-August slot like Guardians 1 or Suicide Squad has the advantage of not having to deal with as many other movies opening.

But being in an early summer slot probably has other advantages that the August slot doesn't have.

If WW can hold onto some screens, I think it could have some pretty good late drops, actually, just because I think there is probably a chunk of the audience that is loyal to this movie, and excited about supporting it.

The bulk of the audience will move on, but I think there will be a smaller group that wants to go back, or go with a different group of friends.

 

[Greenlite]

I am not sure if it is really harder to make a billion now days as the internation market continutes to get bigger and bigger but I do remember hearing that with out 3d that iron man 3 would have only made about 900 million instead of about 1.2 billion. The movie made about a extra 300 million by 3d whitch is why I am surprised that not like all movies are in 3d seems like a easy way to make more money.

There are a bit of VR stuff going on, no idea how it works, maybe that will be the new 3D, Avatar might try it out and make 3B, who knows.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Why do people want to go and watch Transformers? Double Toasted all gave it some old BS or a **** you rating.

Ummmm......maybe because those folks like the franchise.

I haven't seen a single Transformers movie in theaters but if I were to see one, I would go and see it regardless of a f**k you rating from any reviewer. I made up my mind a long time ago to despise this franchise but if suddenly I plan on seeing the latest entry, I'll go because I know what I'm getting myself into and I'll probably end up liking it.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/877878944493481984

Wonder Woman grossed an estimated $3.85M on Wednesday. 20-Day total stands at $289.19M.

 

[iEquinox]

So a 39.3% drop from last Wednesday. Pretty much the same WoW drop as Tuesday. If it follows last week's day to day drops/increases(and a bigger Sunday drop because there's no Father's Day) it would get about $23-24M this weekend.
Not quite as good as that BO.com prediction but still a very good number. It would still be the 4th best 4th weekend ever for a superhero movie, behind only The Avengers($36.7M), Spider-Man($28.5M) and The Dark Knight ($26.1M). Age of Ultron's $21.7M 4th weekend would be pushed into 5th place on that list.

It could do a bit better than $23-24M though, because there's no new wide releases opening this weekend (TF5 is the only wide release this week).

It will also pass MoS's domestic total today.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Theater count numbers starting to trickle in. Nothing for WW yet but Baywatch is basically gone, losing 95% of its theaters (in just week 5! Ouch.).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2017&wk=25&p=.htm