The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

Saying Hunger Games looks like a sci fi channel movie is just as silly as saying Avengers looks like a TV show

My gf made me go and the visual effects are pretty awful. That may be wat is meant by that statement. You can tell they wanted to keep the budget low and the cgi is where they cut the budget.

 

[Ultimatehero]

You need to stop thinking of THE AVENGERS as a sequel only.

It's an EVENT MOVIE that has a life of it's own. Honestly I'm sensing a phenomenon; wait and see.

Hopefully that's right and all the heroes combined will draw in more crowds that may have seen none of the movies and maybe wouldn't have otherwise. But, as said - I'm seeing all of Iron Man's audience in attendance, those who may have seen some other hero's movie and not the others, then although Whedon isn't as big a name as Nolan or Spielberg or etc. - he definitely does have a core loyal following so there's tickets additionally to add on as well.

 

[Raiden]

Well, like it or not, the media is going to use THG's 155 mil grossed from OW to be the measuring stick for the rest of the year's blockbusters, including Avengers. I doubt TA will be able to match it million for million, but I hope their OW number won't be too far behind...maybe 140-145 mil would be terrific.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Well, like it or not, the media is going to use THG's 155 mil grossed from OW to be the measuring stick for the rest of the year's blockbusters, including Avengers. I doubt TA will be able to match it million for million, but I hope their OW number won't be too far behind...maybe 140-145 mil would be terrific.

Might. Might not. Only reason I say that is other than 'American Reunion' April is pretty much a dead month for summer movies this year. Unsure exactly how that happened lol. But, this and next week is 'summer' then it slows down. It's going to depend general audience-wise, thus radio/new-wise, if The Hunger Games is mentioned again past next week with other movies. If there were more blockbusters in April, basically had kicked off the summer - then, yeah, it definitely would have been like that.

 

[Weadazoid]

Pretty much everyone I know is gonna go see the Avengers there is alot of hype behind this movie, I still say Opening weekend could get close to 200 million




Thor definitely had it's own kind of audience as did Cap THors being the most different and it really brought in heavy international numbers


adding the Hulk crowd figure to bring in an additional 30 to 40 million opening weekend



should be interesting to say the least

 

[Shadowlord X]

I think that THE AVENGERS will have a bigger opening than THG and will have better legs.

 

[kedrell]

I think that THE AVENGERS will have a bigger opening than THG and will have better legs.

As do I.

 

[Raiden]

I think that THE AVENGERS will have a bigger opening than THG and will have better legs.

I hope you're right. TA is the culmination of what Marvel has been working on for the past several years, and I want it to not just break records but also knock audience's socks off.

 

[BigThor]

As do I.

Same here

 

[Weadazoid]

Same here

ditto


lookin for 200 mill - srsly

 

[samsnee]

I think that THE AVENGERS will have a bigger opening than THG and will have better legs.

I don't think it will, and I couldn't care less if it does. Mainly because the books have such a strong fanbase amongst women of all ages. I'm not saying Avengers don't have female fans, but I think that base is still skewed mostly toward younger men.

 

[BigThor]

Like I said who cares about "opening weekend", the overall world wide gross when it's all said and done it's what's important.

 

[Shadowlord X]

I hope you're right. TA is the culmination of what Marvel has been working on for the past several years, and I want it to not just break records but also knock audience's socks off.

We all do!

 

[Shadowlord X]

I don't think it will, and I couldn't care less if it does. Mainly because the books have such a strong fanbase amongst women of all ages. I'm not saying Avengers don't have female fans, but I think that base is still skewed mostly toward younger men.

I think you're wrong but we'll have to wait and see.

 

[samsnee]

I read this analysis on another site about THG's box office:

Yes, it made more than Twilight and became the third biggest opening for a movie, ever. But how? “The brilliant marketing made the movie feel like its appeal was beyond the YA audience that bought the books,” said one rival studio production exec in its thrall. (This writer who hadn't read the books and is far from the YA demo wasn't onboard until he saw the fantastic "shoot the pig" trailer, released last week. And then, yup.) Adds the exec, “Once you saw the film, you were thrilled they hired a good director and put together a cast that appealed far beyond the YA audience of the book. The film works on every level.” In other words, The Hunger Games didn’t just look broadly appealing — it was broadly appealing.

I think that's what is missing so far from the Avengers marketing. It's appealing toward people who have seen at least one of the Marvel movies, and comic book fans in general. But I haven't seen anything yet that makes me think it would appeal to someone who knows nothing about the MCU. I'm glad they've sold the action and scale, but we need something to really sell the drama. The only real drama so far has been about Stark being a team player, nothing yet highlighting Cap being out of time, or Thor having to deal with his brother.

 

[Quasimod0]

I think the avengers has the potential to draw in a much larger crowd than the hunger games. These heroes are a million times more popular than that book series. Almost everyone in many parts of the WORLD know who the hulk, iron man, captain america, and thor are. And this sure is an event film if there ever was one.

 

[samsnee]

But there's a difference between knowing what something is and wanting to see it. I know what Twilight is. I know more about it than I probably would care to, but I would actually ever pay to see it? No.

Everyone knows who Superman is, but Superman Returns wasn't exactly a blockbuster.

 

[Quasimod0]

Too true. I hope all the people who know about these characters are eager to see the film

 

[Ultimatehero]

Now, see I don't know if HUNGER GAMES initially had a "over-all" encompassing audience. A lot of the guys I know, and I was the same way prior to reading the script, thought it was primarily targeted towards teenage girls like Twilight was. They didn't really sell the action or 'guy-angles' in their marketing campaign thus the reaction from most guys I heard prior to opening night being similar to 'Twilight.' And the second week drawing more guys in due to hearing about it also being an action film from their trusted guy friends. The film itself IS broadly appealing, their marketing design was not. I actually expect this week to be good as well because of that.

Avengers marketing, so far, is very much the same exact way. Just focusing on action without all of the intense personal struggles throughout. Once they do, hopefully they will, focus on that - it'll surely increase outside of the comic world as well in it's opening night. I mean, we've got brothers pitted against each other, a man out of time, and a man stuck with a monster who has to 'learn' how to be a hero - all are really intriguing and original for film.

 

[samsnee]

I think that's part of the reason why you're seeing Scarlet prominently in so many of the promos. She's the only female with a significant role (Maria Hill is TBD). Otherwise, it really does look like a total sausage fest.

Now, I realize someone will say "Well The Dark Knight only had one real female role." This is true. But as much as I love Avengers, having Joker in your film is way beyond them in terms of pop culture.

 

[Guerrilla]

My wife and a dozen or so friends and I will be in attendance opening night, i will return twice more that weekend to see avengers! The same goes for tdkr and asm. All i can do is my part in supporting all of these potentially great movies and hope for more in the future. (Wish i could upload a starship troopers "are you doing your part?" gif right now) sooo excited! Ok, carry on.

 

[Shadowlord X]

I read this analysis on another site about THG's box office:



I think that's what is missing so far from the Avengers marketing. It's appealing toward people who have seen at least one of the Marvel movies, and comic book fans in general. But I haven't seen anything yet that makes me think it would appeal to someone who knows nothing about the MCU. I'm glad they've sold the action and scale, but we need something to really sell the drama. The only real drama so far has been about Stark being a team player, nothing yet highlighting Cap being out of time, or Thor having to deal with his brother.

I disagree completely with the first statement. The marketing has portrayed this as an action adventure spectacle; going after the same crowd that has made TF3 and AVATAR major successes.

You are correct about the second statement and a good observation.

They may be going for bringing the viewers in via the spectacle, then leaving a lasting impression via the drama. Movies work really well with audiences when they expect certain things via the trailers (which the movie delivers on) and then other aspects, which they were not expecting, really impress them.

 

[Mysteryman]

Deadline reports that THG's final tally is 152.5

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Sounds reachable especially with 3D.

Side-note: Hemsworth brothers are lucky.

 

[BigThor]

Sounds reachable especially with 3D.

I just can't wait until the film opens up so doubters can see just how huge this film is after 5 years of build up.