The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

At least all this cash is going to a good cause.

 

[jmc]

At least all this cash is going to a good cause.

So too are my tax dollars apparently, doesn't mean I like paying that much. Everyone in the US should be grateful they're not getting ripped off like us.

 

[mclay18]

An industry analyst has predicted that The Avengers could set an opening weekend record in North America.

I think that's extremely optimistic, at least right now. I do think good reviews will help sell it to more skeptical audience members...

Unless it's hugely disappointing, the movie is on track to opening with a solid $150M+ weekend and $320M domestic total (that's being extremely conservative). But challenging HP8's opening weekend (or opening day)? It's tough to say, but I think it's possible it could come close to or narrowly surpass it by a couple of million.

 

[Liam_H]

Challenging HP8 opening day record? I would have to say hell no, can't see that happening. But opening weekend, certainly.

 

[Mysteryman]

So 93 million or more on opening day for The Avengers ?
HP was 92.1 million.

 

[Quasimod0]

Thats alot of money

 

[Xeno]

I think that's extremely optimistic, at least right now. I do think good reviews will help sell it to more skeptical audience members...

Unless it's hugely disappointing, the movie is on track to opening with a solid $150M+ weekend and $320M domestic total (that's being extremely conservative). But challenging HP8's opening weekend (or opening day)? It's tough to say, but I think it's possible it could come close to or narrowly surpass it by a couple of million.

The analyst who made that prediction is with Exhibitor Relations. It's not as if he pulled those numbers out of the air. He has access to information about ticket presales, tracking data and the like upon which he based his prediction. It's less optimism on his part -- he's a professional who has no reason to talk up the movie -- than an informed estimation of the movie's prospects.

 

[BigThor]

^ I think people really underestimate how big of an event film The Avengers really is, especially with Disney's promotion behind it.

 

[Liam_H]

Ehh, Disney isn't always on the nose with promotion. Go ask John Carter.

 

[BigThor]

Ehh, Disney isn't always on the nose with promotion. Go ask John Carter.

From what I've heard that more of the director wanting to promote this film in a similar mannar as animated films which just doesn't work for that type of film.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

The promotional work for The Avengers has been great thus far on Disney's behalf but I don't see The Avengers breaking HP: DH's opening day records.

We'll have to wait and see.

 

[Iceman]

The promotional work for The Avengers has been great thus far on Disney's behalf but I don't see The Avengers breaking HP: DH's opening day records.

We'll have to wait and see.

Yeah, I'm not convinced or that interested in opening day but opening weekend is a possibility.

 

[Liam_H]

Potter's opening day record was based solely out of its Midnight record. So any movie wanting to break that record would also need a huge midnight haul.

 

[BigThor]

Well the opening weekend is far more important than opening day, so I couldn't careless about it breaking the opening day record.

 

[jmc]

The promotion for Avengers hasn't been as in your face like something like John Carter was. As for HP's record the HP crowd vastly outnumbers the comic crowd, that record is safe from all comers this year, not even Batman will get close to it.

 

[Shadowlord X]

The analyst who made that prediction is with Exhibitor Relations. It's not as if he pulled those numbers out of the air. He has access to information about ticket presales, tracking data and the like upon which he based his prediction. It's less optimism on his part -- he's a professional who has no reason to talk up the movie -- than an informed estimation of the movie's prospects.

It's absolutely hilarious when industry analysts predict something with vast amounts of stats, info, and experience behind them, and then people here, whose carreers/jobs have nothing to do with this, dispute these predictions.

Wow.

 

[BigThor]

Like I said before, opening weekend >>> opening day

 

[jmc]

It's absolutely hilarious when industry analysts predict something with vast amounts of stats, info, and experience behind them, and then people here, whose carreers/jobs have nothing to do with this, dispute these predictions.

Wow.

Well, they have been off before, plenty of times. You needn't go back any further than 3 weeks ago to see how wrong predictions can be. It's not exactly a science.

 

[Liam_H]

Well the opening weekend is far more important than opening day, so I couldn't careless about it breaking the opening day record.

Its true that OW is far more important/noteworthy than opening day but a record opening day will certainly help you achieve that. Usually an opening day record increase probability of getting the opening weekend record unless the movie is extremely front loaded (Twilight films). HP8's record is due to its opening day/midnight push.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yeah, I'm not convinced or that interested in opening day but opening weekend is a possibility.

It's a possibility, but the record will still be a massive undertaking. I only see The Hobbit breaking the record.

 

[The Morningstar]

I think it'll make around 130-140 OW. 350-400 US. 450-500 INT.

 

[BigThor]

I think it'll make around 130-140 OW. 350-400 US. 450-500 INT.

Iron Man 2's opening weekend was 128 million, so do you honestly think the Avengers will only make 2-12 million dollars more it's opening weekend?

 

[DoomsdayApex]

It's absolutely hilarious when industry analysts predict something with vast amounts of stats, info, and experience behind them, and then people here, whose carreers/jobs have nothing to do with this, dispute these predictions.

Wow.

Bingo.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I predict big openings for the comic films this summer:

TDKR - $175 million
The Avengers - $ 155 million
Amazing Spidey - $100 million

 

[Mysteryman]

I think all 3 of those films will exceed those predictions .