The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Gamma Burst]

It says a lot that TASM can't even muster up 7% of the male vote on a "most anticipated movie" poll

Indeed, things don't look very promising for spidey...

Seeing The Avengers on the top two for both men AND women is a great news, since cross-gender appeal is necessary for a movie to become not just a hit but a phenomenon. It's also nice to see Chris Hemsworth occupying the top spot for both lists as well.

It's awesome news, and, yeah, Hems' profile is going through the roof.

 

[thalidomide]

It was definitely part of it though. Reason why I'm not looking for Avengers to match it just others. That gave TDK a push, a push we don't have. Also one TDKR doesn't have, look where audience is on that chart. If it was solely TDK, it would be much higher.

I agree, and tbh I wasn't planning on seeing TDK until I heard of his death (I'm not trying to be disrespectful btw). I don't know maybe I just got bored on watching too many bat-films.

 

[Iceman]

I'm gonna say this movie gets 170 mil opening weekend based on early tracking and the numbers showing the overall awareness of the film. Now, if this movie does as well as I think it will (round 1.1 billion). Then Avengers 2 will break all previous OW and total gross records at that time. I put my stamp of approval on it.

Avengers 2 is going to smash everything that came before. Even though Avengers has great awareness now there are still a lot of people out there who don't yet know how awesome it's going to be. By Avengers 2 they'll all know!

 

[Mjölnir]

I loved the Spider-Man trilogy including the third.

I don't really know why they are rebooting so soon after three massive movies that earned something like 800 million each or so

I was not a fan of the X-Men reboot either, pointless considering it was not even the real first class

So I am not hyped about the new Spider-Man at all, even after watching the trailer, which seems quite dull compared to first 3

X-Men: First Class isn't a reboot, is it? From what I've read there might be sequels to both the normal X-Men movies and FC.

As for Spider-Man they did a great job with the first two, but I didn't think the third was even close to the other two. Too many villains for me, plus that I'm one (of the few?) to not understand the Venom hype.

 

[Son of Coul]

I don't really know why they are rebooting so soon after three massive movies that earned something like 800 million each or so

I think you just answered your own question

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

And he almost answered it twice.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

The only thing that will save AMS is if the movie is actually good. In fact, "good" may not cut it. It better be surprisingly good. And it better appeal to teenage girls and young women as well as the dudes. Their marketing campaign has been abysmal imo.

 

[Ultimatehero]

The only thing that will save AMS is if the movie is actually good. In fact, "good" may not cut it. It better be surprisingly good. And it better appeal to teenage girls and young women as well as the dudes. Their marketing campaign has been abysmal imo.

Um, how is their marketing campaign for general audiences that different from Batman? I mean, you ask me, so far Spidey has a much better marketing campaign. Why bring Batman up? They're both MONTHS AWAY, only weeks apart, and Spidey has more marketing out there. It still surprises me so many people expect Spidey to have a huge marketing presence right now - that'd be the equivalent of marketing suicide. Too soon - risk it dying out. These things need to be timed right.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Anticipation polls are misleading to some extent. The Avengers will not make 4 times more money then Spider-Man OW (or overall) because of a poll. Spider-Man will do big business. Brand recognition.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Anticipation polls are misleading to some extent. The Avengers will not make 4 times more money then Spider-Man OW because of a poll. Spider-Man will do big business.

Also most of those movies, with the exception of TDKR, are coming out relatively soon in comparison.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Very true. The Spider-Man hype machine hasn't even been revved up yet, or TDKR for that matter.

And it's a given that reboots have a certain rebuliding to do anyway.

 

[redfirebird2008]

TDK holds the OW record amongst superhero movies, and is a good yardstick in terms of the "perfect storm" phenomenon. THG is cited I suppose because of its monstrous OW numbers and incredible legs, plus a study of how TA may or may not enroach into its key demographic in order to do even better business.

THG's legs aren't incredible.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Im saying it was a mistake for Sony to wait this long to "rev up the hype machine". Im rooting for this movie so I hope Im wrong. As for TDKR, it will be a megahit regardless of the marketing.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

THG's legs aren't incredible.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3420&p=.htm

 

[redfirebird2008]

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3420&p=.htm

All that says is "lack of competition" more than anything else. The moment it made $150m on opening weekend, people at BoxOffice.com and other forums were predicting $400m for it based on the lack of competition and the fact that it's an original film rather than a sequel. It's pretty much on track to meet expectations after opening weekend, but it's not really exceeding those expectations.

 

[Tony Stark]

THG's legs aren't incredible.

What planet are you living on?

 

[Tony Stark]

Very true. The Spider-Man hype machine hasn't even been revved up yet, or TDKR for that matter.

And it's a given that reboots have a certain rebuliding to do anyway.

I actually think TASM could match what the first IM movie did, or better.

Unless the story sucks, then all bets are off. If it's at least on par with what the Raimi films were, it will be a big hit.

 

[redfirebird2008]

What planet are you living on?

The one where I and plenty of other people at BoxOffice.com said it would make $400m after opening weekend. In fact some people were even predicting $450-500m after opening weekend because it's an original film rather than a sequel. It's pretty much meeting expectations, but its legs have not been incredible. It will end up around $390-400m, which is an amazing total but the legs are not incredible after that gigantic opening.

 

[Tony Stark]

The one where I and plenty of other people at BoxOffice.com said it would make $400m after opening weekend. In fact some people were even predicting $450-500m after opening weekend because it's an original film rather than a sequel. It's pretty much meeting expectations, but its legs have not been incredible. It will end up around $390-400m, which is an amazing total but the legs are not incredible after that gigantic opening.

Other than the 2nd weekend drop (which is almost expected with huge openings), it's held up it's own end. The film also isn't benefiting from 3D or IMAX or any other huge bumps that other films of this type do. You don't know what you're talking about as usual.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Other than the 2nd weekend drop (which is almost expected with huge openings), it's held up it's own end. The film also isn't benefiting from 3D or IMAX or any other huge bumps that other films of this type do. You don't know what you're talking about as usual.

I know exactly what I'm talking about, but I'm not surprised you would resort to insults in a disagreement with someone. If its legs were incredible, none of us at BoxOffice.com would have been able to predict the total like we did. It would have far exceeded expectations after opening weekend, and it's not doing that. It is going to end up with an amazing total and it had an amazing opening, but the legs are not incredible. Avatar had incredible legs.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Stupid semantic argument (ie the use of the word "incredible"). Lets move on shall we?

 

[Xeno]

I actually think TASM could match what the first IM movie did, or better.

Unless the story sucks, then all bets are off. If it's at least on par with what the Raimi films were, it will be a big hit.

I haven't been impressed at all with what I've seen of ASM, though I'm a big Spider-Man fan. Trailers and clips aren't necessarily indicative of the quality of the finished product, so I'll wait and see. If they were planning to do the Death of Gwen Stacy arc I would be a lot more interested, frankly.

 

[marcvader]

Pardon my ignorance but when does ASM come out

 

[redfirebird2008]

Pardon my ignorance but when does ASM come out

July 3rd. They still have a ton of time to crank up the marketing. Right now is Avengers' time to shine. Sony would be foolish to throw away a ton of marketing cash on TASM right now.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I actually think TASM could match what the first IM movie did, or better.

Agreed. I'm very confident of this. It will most likely surpass it.