The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[eddy]

She says the movie is tracking to only make 160 million. But if it made 60 million on Saturday then that brings the total to 140 million. Surely she does not believe The Avengers is going to have a 20 million Sunday LOL.

 

[Xeno]

60m according to Deadline, but Nikki did drop the ball yesterday so I'm waiting on a certain poster from the Boxoffice.com forums, who tends to be more reliable.

Yeah, but $60 million would be spectacular. A total of $140 for two days is incredible; adding another $45 million on Sunday would equal the most optimistic expert forecasts. Should the Saturday total be several million higher, say $65 million+, and the Sunday number hit $55 million, that's $200 million right there. But that's crazy talk! t:

 

[Webfoot Hero]

She says the movie is tracking to only make 160 million. But if it made 60 million on Saturday then that brings the total to 140 million. Surely she does not believe The Avengers is going to have a 20 million Sunday LOL.

Those numbers don't seem accurate since I doubt you'd see so much of a drop from a Friday to a Sunday.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Yeah, but $60 million would be spectacular. A total of $140 for two days is incredible; adding another $45 million on Sunday would equal the most optimistic expert forecasts. Should the Saturday total be several million higher, say $65 million+, and the Sunday number hit $55 million, that's $200 million right there. But that's crazy talk! t:

But still within the realm of possibility, methinks...

 

[Saitou Hajime]

She says the movie is tracking to only make 160 million. But if it made 60 million on Saturday then that brings the total to 140 million. Surely she does not believe The Avengers is going to have a 20 million Sunday LOL.

She revised her OW figure to 175 after the 80.5m figure for Friday blew her puny 65-67m estimates away. Still, even with a 60m Saturday that means a 35m Sunday to get a 175m OW. Man, these people sure are stubborn. If TA were an actual hurricane, the US as a whole would've been annihilated by now with these kind of forecasters.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

She revised her OW figure to 175 after the 80.5m figure for Friday blew her puny 65-67m estimates away. Still, even with a 60m Saturday that means a 35m Sunday to get a 175m OW. Man, these people sure are stubborn. If TA were an actual hurricane, the US as a whole would've been annihilated by now with these kind of forecasters.

Hah! t:

 

[Chewy]

A 60M Saturday would mean ~45M Sunday for a 185M weekend

If Saturday is 70M+ a 200M weekend is not out of the question

 

[Saitou Hajime]

So with a 180-200 OW, how big a multiplier do you need to get to 500+m overall? Hell, can it even surpass that at this rate?

 

[iJackSparrow]

Yesterday I was just talking like the estimates seemed VERY wrong to me and I still felt that it could surpass the $200M barrier in the OW, some said it wasn't possible the estimates to be that wrong. I still say it's possible, and more than that, people are understimating this film's rewatchability, in my opinion this could surprise us even more breaking the $2B (gasp!) barrier when it's all said and done.

The Avengers is already a cultural phenomenon, and we've just seen the beginning of this. I feel very proud of Marvel, Whedon and all the actors and parties involved, this movie deserves all the money and accolades it can get.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

A $200 M opening weekend would be cool to see. That would mean Marvel characters made box office history twice in the last decade. Spider-Man being the first film to exceed the $100 M mark for a weekend and The Avengers being the first to hit/pass $200 M.

 

[Raiden]

A 60M Saturday would mean ~45M Sunday for a 185M weekend

If Saturday is 70M+ a 200M weekend is not out of the question

If Saturday does gross 70 mil, I think 200 mil will indeed be within reach.

 

[Gamma Burst]

All I know is that it'll make a crapload of money! I'm more than happy!

 

[Hotwire]

My local theater kept adding showtimes and had no trouble selling them out.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Well, they better do as much big business as they can because Battleship is going to sink it in a couple of weeks. IT IS KNOWN.

 

[Raiden]

Well, they better do as much big business as they can because Battleship is going to sink it in a couple of weeks. IT IS KNOWN.

I think TA will sink Battleship, not the other way around.

 

[iJackSparrow]

No they don't.

Batman and Superman are icons.

Avengers wouldn't have worked before these movies because only geeks knew Iron Man and Thor, only geeks cared about Cap, and Ang Lee killed the Hulk's reputation

Batman and Superman alone are enough to establish JL as an event

Completely disagree. Having Batman and Superman isn't enough of a reason to have a successful Justice League movie. The Avengers had a build up to become what it is and that's why we all care. If Warner is dumb - and I do think they are - to think they can just do a JL movie to emulate The Avengers thunder, I fear it could go worse than the Green Lantern bomb, and in the end this is bad business to movies based on comic books as a whole. If they want to do a Justice League movie, they better give us a movieverse FIRST.

definately prefer hobbit to lord of the rings.

EVERYONE is going to see TDKR, the question is, is everyone going to see TDKR TWICE?

I'll be at TDKR opening midnight. But I doubt I'll go see the movie more than once at the theaters, I haven't done this with the previous ones and I don't see a reason to start doing it now.

And the repeat viewing numbers of this movie will be a beast.

I doubt that many people are returning to do a same-day or next-day repeat watch for Hunger Games or even Avatar.

Exactly, I can see people going again and again just out of the sheer awesomeness surrounding this movie. It has a very rare and addictive quality, I' actually thinking with Avatar numbers now for The Avengers.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I think TA will sink Battleship, not the other way around.

Shows what you know. Battleship is modeled after Transformers and has cool VFX and action scenes. It already made 170m overseas. It's going to hurt TA.

 

[iJackSparrow]

Shows what you know. Battleship is modeled after Transformers and has cool VFX and action scenes. It's going to hurt TA.

People don't care about Battleship. The Avengers has an insane WOM and people simply do not care about Battleship. I see The Avengers ruling the box office until Prometheus, and it will still put up a fight.

 

[Avenger]

I drove by my local theater earlier this afternoon and the parking lot was PACKED. I didn't see a single empty spot. That rarely happens where I live.

 

[The Chris]

At one show at my theater during the midnights, the audience didn't respond to the battleship trailer, the only one that got no response, in another theater, it was the only one that got booed.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Shows what you know. Battleship is modeled after Transformers and has cool VFX and action scenes. It already made 170m overseas.

So? Avengers has already made 304 million overseas.

 

[Gamma Burst]

People don't care about Battleship. The Avengers has an insane WOM and people simply do not care about Battleship. I see The Avengers ruling the box office until Prometheus, and it will still put up a fight.

This. Also, battleship's number in the foreign box office are nothing compared to Avenger's.

 

[Gamma Burst]

So? Avengers has already made 304 million overseas.

You beat me to it.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

Shows what you know. Battleship is modeled after Transformers and has cool VFX and action scenes. It already made 170m overseas. It's going to hurt TA.

Is there any tracking that suggests the U.S. audiences are as excited to go see Battleship as the overseas market was? I am not seeing a lot of hype for it over here, especially compaired to what Avengers is generating. And as Captain Stacy pointed out, Avengers has already outgrossed Battleship overseas.

 

[BAXWAR]

Yeah. No one cares about Battleship. I think it's gonna bomb.
No one is taking the concept seriously.