The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Iceman]

Lets go for $200m exact. Not a penny below (or above).

 

[Raiden]

I said this in the batman forum but... honestly the whole box office argument is moot anyways neither of these films will outgross avatar.

On another note however the avengers very well may have the edge in opening 3d and all however i am almost certain tdkr will have better legs. Aside from film quality i feel the comeptition from may onwards is gonna be tougher than from late july onwards. TDK made a killing in july into august 4 weeks at #1.

The avengers best case scenario is 3 weekends and even that is pushing it. MIB3 is a definite number 1 debut, dark shadows and battleship are tbd.

Sorry, that is just Nolan worshipping right there. I'm sure you were predicting that The Avengers had a chance to gross 200 mil in its OW too, did you? The fact that you don't really know, and in the end the results will probably surprise you. TDKR will probably be huge, but given the kind of phenomenon TDK was I seriously doubt its sequel will not have a letdown.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yea i think it'll make around 600 million.

It will make more than this in the overseas market alone.

beloved brand + 3D + expanded market + quality film = $$$$

 

[chiefchirpa]

Indeed. Marvel has become a more internationally recognizable brand since the Avengers. DC is a fringe brand, showcasing just Batman and Superman.

 

[ElMariachi]

Go back 5 years. Its pretty amazing what Marvel has accomplished in that time span. Kevin Feige has done a fantastic job and should get props from everybody.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Sorry, that is just Nolan worshipping right there. I'm sure you were predicting that The Avengers had a chance to gross 200 mil in its OW too, did you? The fact that you don't really know, and in the end the results will probably surprise you. TDKR will probably be huge, but given the kind of phenomenon TDK was I seriously doubt its sequel will not have a letdown.

It seems so...But It's expected.

Indeed. Marvel has become a more internationally recognizable brand since the Avengers. DC is a fringe brand, showcasing just Batman and Superman.

So true.

 

[ElMariachi]

I still dont expect Avengers to make more than TDKR. I dont really care though. It will always be just as impressive getting fringe/B list characters to draw these types of people to the theater.

 

[Suzanne78]

From ERCboxoffice twitter:


Official numbers aren't out yet, but THE AVENGERS will go down in history as the #1 debut of all-time--somewhere between $190-$200 million.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Go back 5 years. Its pretty amazing what Marvel has accomplished in that time span. Kevin Feige has done a fantastic job and should get props from everybody.

Before 5 years ago, Avengers was a pipe dream.

Hence a jokey thread like below had to happen back then:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=164981

 

[Marvin]

Avengers has (almost) nothing competing with it coming out of the gate(which is contributing to this outstanding numbers). I don't think Batman will be faced with the same. The summer audience is hungrier at this moment than ever.

 

[Raiden]

I still dont expect Avengers to make more than TDKR. I dont really care though. It will always be just as impressive getting fringe/B list characters to draw these types of people to the theater.

So you expect TDKR to have a bigger OW and better legs than TA?

 

[Pond]

Numfar! Do the dance of honor!

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Just out of curiosity do the Batman fanboys have a planned schedule to determine who comes over here to try and downplay THE AVENGERS quality and success, or is purely random, or is it determined by who hits the highest level of nolan-worshipping religious fervor???

I'm guessing they have a planned schedule

Expect more of them to show up once the BO numbers are confirmed.

To quote the great Mr Snipes:

Some mothertruckers are always trying to skate uphill.

 

[ElMariachi]

I think it might. It has a bigger, more rabid fanbase. Avengers has tougher competition too. Other than Bourne and Expendables (almost a month later), there isnt anything for weeks with remotely any hype. The rest are kids movies and comedies. Total Recall is going to underperform.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Go back 5 years. Its pretty amazing what Marvel has accomplished in that time span. Kevin Feige has done a fantastic job and should get props from everybody.

Alot of people deserve credit. Actors, writers, producers, directors, etc.

All it took was one Green Lantern-type disappointment and the entire Avengers plan would've been derailed.

I think the momentum from Favreau and Downey Jr's well-received Iron Man carried them through the rough patches so those guys deserve alot of credit too.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

I think it might. It has a bigger, more rabid fanbase. Avengers has tougher competition too. Other than Bourne and Expendables (almost a month later), there isnt anything for weeks with remotely any hype. The rest are kids movies and comedies. Total Recall is going to underperform.

The bats movies may have a bigger fanbase, but The Avengers is accesible to everybody. That factor cannot be discounted.

it is entirely possible for TDKR to have a bigger OW. But longer legs?....i'm not so sure. There were certain...factor... that contributed to the TDK succes back then, other than less competition etc. But i won't mention it. Think everybody knows what i'm talking about.

 

[Raiden]

I think it might. It has a bigger, more rabid fanbase. Avengers has tougher competition too. Other than Bourne and Expendables (almost a month later), there isnt anything for weeks with remotely any hype. The rest are kids movies and comedies. Total Recall is going to underperform.

Well, if we were going to use fanbase as the barometer for a movie's success, we would've never had Iron Man becoming as huge as it did five years ago, nor will The Avengers be on the verge of scoring 200 million OW. Yes, Batman has a more rabid fanbase, but that alone cannot be used to predict how success TDKR will be.

 

[chiefchirpa]

I think it might. It has a bigger, more rabid fanbase. Avengers has tougher competition too. Other than Bourne and Expendables (almost a month later), there isnt anything for weeks with remotely any hype. The rest are kids movies and comedies. Total Recall is going to underperform.

Fanbase -> 15% of the total viewerships. The rest are ordinary joes who don't care to watch the movie twice. It goes the same way for the Avengers or any other movies.

However, I do believe among the Batman fanbase there would be someone who will watch the movie for at least 15 times at the theater. It's that rabid.

 

[The Morningstar]

There will be Bat fanatics who watch it 20 times even if they don't like it. Just to spite Marvel.

 

[spider-neil]

can't talk for anyone else but after avengers the next movie on my list is prometheus, a full MONTH later.

I don't see battleship or MIIIB making a dent in avengers' take.

 

[The Morningstar]

can't talk for anyone else but after avengers the next movie on my list is prometheus, a full MONTH later.

I don't see battleship or MIIIB making a dent in avengers' take.

Same. The latest trailer for that was amazing. As was the audio that leaked. It's gonna be truly terrifying i think.

 

[Micromind]

There will be Bat fanatics who watch it 20 times even if they don't like it. Just to spite Marvel.

No.

 

[spider-neil]

There will be Bat fanatics who watch it 20 times even if they don't like it. Just to spite Marvel.

unless TDKR is horrible, I think I will watch it at least twice. I watched inception twice and I didn't even like it.

 

[The Morningstar]

lol no, but they're sad. Anyone who spends over 200 bucks on cinema tickets for one movie is a very sad person.

 

[Gamma Burst]

can't talk for anyone else but after avengers the next movie on my list is prometheus, a full MONTH later.

I don't see battleship or MIIIB making a dent in avengers' take.

Me too. After the Avengers, Prometheus is the movie to see this year, to me.