The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[spider-neil]

Sorry if it came off arrogant but im sorry that's a fact. TDKR's opening weekend will be within a few million give or take of what avengers is doing now i.e shutting down the BO for any other film.

Even if tasm turns out to be a great film it will not be able to muster anywhere near the hype or press that TDKR will as the final nolan bat film. Especially in its 3rd week in theaters at the time.

the thing is the general audience know 'roughly' what they are getting with spidey and bats i.e. aimed at kids, aimed at teens, aimed at adults. I think this will be a factor.
I know it's not the thing but I cannot believe turn off the dark was a mega hit, that is the power of spidey.

 

[spider-neil]

It's not a fact. This is ****ing Spider-Man we're talking about. He is as big as Batman in terms of pop culture icon status.

I agree that TDKR will be bigger than ASM, but to suggest it will completely steam roll it? I don't think so.

I don't have kids but if I did and I had to chose between bats and spidey (knowing what the nolan batman movies were like) I'd take them to see spidey.

I remember I was in the theatre for my second viewing of TDK and there was a woman and her two kids, anyway, I turned to her and said 'are you sure you want to show your kids this movie?', she said she was fine. 10 minutes into the movie she is grabbing her brood and getting the hell out of there.

 

[Rev]

TDKR is coming out the same time as ASM. spider-man is ridiculously popular overseas and I suspect both will eat into each others take abroad.

I think we may be surprised to find that there maybe plenty of room for of these three to reap the benefits. I congratulate Marvel on raising the bar for superhero movie making and hope that quality movies will further inspire future films and their makers to step up their game so we the fans can continue to win!

 

[Iceman]

NIkki Finke is finally mentioning the possibility of a $200m weekend!

"Even $200m seems possible"

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

 

[iJackSparrow]

Comparing Spidey to Hellboy is... silly.

And suggesting that people will flock to Bats over Spidey, or that TDKR will automatically be a better film just reeks of Bat fan arrogance.

This.

Sorry if it came off arrogant but im sorry that's a fact. TDKR's opening weekend will be within a few million give or take of what avengers is doing now i.e shutting down the BO for any other film.

Even if tasm turns out to be a great film it will not be able to muster anywhere near the hype or press that TDKR will as the final nolan bat film. Especially in its 3rd week in theaters at the time.

I wouldn't be so confident. The Avengers is out of this competition, Batman will be actually fighting. Spider-Man movies, and the general audience's love for Spider-Man should always be taken in consideration. Besides, it's released in July 4th. I think Batman fanboys are understimating Spider-Man's box office power. Of course Batman will sell more in his ow, but it'll certainly divide the box office. Internationally I've seen a reaction way stronger for Spider-Man's latest trailer than TDKR's.

 

[iJackSparrow]

NIkki Finke is finally mentioning the possibility of a $200m weekend!

"Even $200m seems possible"

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

The boxoffice forums posters just posted that the number most probably stay between $68M and $70M. t:

 

[Iceman]

It's not a fact. This is ****ing Spider-Man we're talking about. He is as big as Batman in terms of pop culture icon status.

I agree that TDKR will be bigger than ASM, but to suggest it will completely steam roll it? I don't think so.

Spidey will have a lot of screens even in its 3rd week. It's going to take a massive hit but its not going to be steamrollered like a smaller film would be. If those screens belonged to lesser known properties more of them would probably be given to TDKR as well so ASM may have a slightly limiting effect on frontloadedness for TDKR.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's not a fact. This is ****ing Spider-Man we're talking about. He is as big as Batman in terms of pop culture icon status.

I agree that TDKR will be bigger than ASM, but to suggest it will completely steam roll it? I don't think so.

It doesn't matter that it's f'ing spider-man to the audience its all "what have you done for me lately?"

Spidey's been 5 years out of the game coming off a still financially successful yes but critically panned film. That has not gotten better in the public's mind since then.

It is also a reboot with an entirely new cast. It's essentially the incredible hulk in 2008 with the only saving grace being that yes it is still spider-man and not the hulk.

My honest non biased prediction tasm is pirates 4. It won't do gangbusters domestically possibly the lowest earner of the series but can still make good money overseas.

Now back to my point after all that i don't feel it will be a threat to tdkr. My original original point was you rather see your competition behind you not in front as the avengers is. TASM is being release 2 weeks behind tdkr it doens't have to steam roll tasm just outpace it since its already in front.

 

[spider-neil]

It doesn't matter that it's f'ing spider-man to the audience its all "what have you done for me lately?"

Spidey's been 5 years out of the game coming off a still financially successful yes but critically panned film. That has not gotten better in the public's mind since then.

It is also a reboot with an entirely new cast. It's essentially the incredible hulk in 2008 with the only saving grace being that yes it is still spider-man and not the hulk.

My honest non biased prediction tasm is pirates 4. It won't do gangbusters domestically possibly the lowest earner of the series but can still make good money overseas.

Now back to my point after all that i don't feel it will be a threat to tdkr. My original original point was you rather see your competition behind you not in front as the avengers is. TASM is being release 2 weeks behind tdkr it doens't have to steam roll just outpace it since its already in front.

SM3 reception was lukewarm rather than panned and the dvd/blu ray sales were quite high as well. the movie wasn't HATED regardless of what some people would have you believe.

 

[The Morningstar]

A film that makes 900 million at the box office isn't hated. That much is certain.

 

[Iceman]

The boxoffice forums posters just posted that the number most probably stay between $68M and $70M. t:

So we need about $50m on Sunday now to get to $200m!

 

[Bruce Malone]

A film that makes 900 million at the box office isn't hated. That much is certain.

I said it was financially successful. Hated or not there are very few people putting spider3 in their top anything. It made all that money off the back of the excellent s2 and the hype of it being a final chapter. Like what's happening to tdkr to an extent.

In franchises movies really do reflect off the last ones in the series history shows this, for good or bad.

 

[The Morningstar]

Yea i agree. But still, a movie that makes that much had to have had repeat viewings. I think most of it's hate is just from fanboys and people on the internet.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yea i agree. But still, a movie that makes that much had to have had repeat viewings. I think most of it's hate is just from fanboys and people on the internet.

Hate? yes mostly from fanboys ambivalence however? mostly from the general public now.

It made a lot of its money overseas due to the fact that it (overseas markets) finally caught on to the spidey franchise a little later. Comic films really didn't start doing very well overseas until 2007/2008. Domestically it was the lowest earner despite the highest debut, so there was a noticeable decline in care for the franchise.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Yea i agree. But still, a movie that makes that much had to have had repeat viewings. I think most of it's hate is just from fanboys and people on the internet.

Yeah...Actually it was the biggest of the spider-man movies.

 

[kedrell]

SM1 actually sold the most tickets WW of all the Spidey films though.

 

[iJackSparrow]

the thing is the general audience know 'roughly' what they are getting with spidey and bats i.e. aimed at kids, aimed at teens, aimed at adults. I think this will be a factor.
I know it's not the thing but I cannot believe turn off the dark was a mega hit, that is the power of spidey.

Believing that Spider-Man will be crushed by TDKR is not only pretentious, it's naive. TDKR won't take any of IMAX 3D and 3D rooms out of Spider-Man, since it's a 2D movie. TDKR will do good, but don't even think that Spider-Man numbers will be low, because they won't be.

I can foresee the three movies will still be playing together for some time at certain locations.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Just out of curiosity do the Batman fanboys have a planned schedule to determine who comes over here to try and downplay THE AVENGERS quality and success, or is purely random, or is it determined by who hits the highest level of nolan-worshipping religious fervor???

 

[Marvin]

Batman faces a different climate in 2012 than it did in 2008. From the front and the back.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Just out of curiosity do the Batman fanboys have a planned schedule to determine who comes over here to try and downplay THE AVENGERS quality and success, or is purely random, or is it determined by who hits the highest level of nolan-worshipping religious fervor???

Dude..Don't give them any ideas. They're already doing it in other forums.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

When this thread first started, I was the very first person to predict that The Avengers would earn over $1 billion. (I said it would make $1.1B, to be precise.) I don't claim to be the first person to think that, and others also predicted it. All of us took a lot of heat for thinking that this film would be the monster hit that it is from the resident doomsayers who thought TA would be lucky to make Iron Man money, if that.


Now the nattering nabobs of negativity have fled in the wake of the numbers, is it time to gloat? Because I really, really feel like gloating after months of back-and-forthing over The Avengers' prospects. We got it right so we deserve to do the victory dance. (If only we'd been betting....)

Ah, wait 'til monday. t:

 

[AvengeME]

Batman will put up a number no doubt. ASM I am less convinced. I don't know why fans are automatially bookmarking 300 domestic on that even with the 3D. I am thinking 275 as a ceiling, more around 225-250. I still think that is an incredibly good number. With Avengers type reviews it has a shot at Iron Man type numbers. WW should be no problem, but I do think there will still be a 50-100mil drop from SM3. I'll say 650-700.

 

[The Morningstar]

Yea i think it'll make around 600 million.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Between 600-700 M sounds reasonable to me.

 

[Gamma Burst]

From ERCboxoffice twitter:

Official numbers aren't out yet, but THE AVENGERS will go down in history as the #1 debut of all-time--somewhere between $190-$200 million.