The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Gamma Burst]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...amuel-l-jackson-biggest-friday-opening-320563

But if Saturday's gross is estimated at 70M(or more) then 200 M does seem plausible. I am also hoping for high grosses on Saturday as well

Updated news:
http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

My sources say it’s looking at a record $68+M grosses for Saturday after making $80.5M Friday ...

 

[kedrell]

Right now it's several competeing to be the first to get the final estimate. We won't know until well into the morning.

 

[itchyscratch]

Last I saw Nikke was reporting a 68M Saturday. And even with that 200M is still possible. It'd be 80, 68, 52.

She usually gets the first estimates out, and she's also usually way off target. Her first estimate for Saturday was 60m. She was something like 15m off the final Friday figure. It's nice to have an early number, but treat all of hers with caution.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Well I think it's had the odds in it's favor to be #1 for 3 weekends in a row for quite a while now. Even before it ever opened I thought it had the best chance in decades to get it done. If it breaks $200M OW then I'd say staying #1 for 3 weekends in a row is practically locked at this point. What $200M now means is that it has a legit shot at being #1 for 4 weekends in a row, which has never happened in May. It would require MIB3 to also underperform a bit but I think it could be possible. I'd give it a 50/50 shot at doing so if it really does pass $200M for the OW.

Just be happy with 3 weekends at number one. It ain't beating MIB3 on it's fourth weekend. No way man.

 

[Lantern Venom]

I would love to read a headline someday that says something like Mjolnir sinks Titanic.

 

[The Morningstar]

So it made 80 mill Friday. 70 mill Saturday? The OW record is certain to be destroyed. Unless it somehow only makes like 10 mill Sunday.

A lot of crow is gonna be eaten. Me included, I thought it'd make around 150 mill, not 180.

 

[The Morningstar]

Shows what you know. Battleship is modeled after Transformers and has cool VFX and action scenes. It already made 170m overseas. It's going to hurt TA.

Battleship is a poor mans Transformers. Which means it's a disease vagrant version of Avengers.

Who in their right mind would choose Battleship over Avengers?

Battleship is... dead in the water.

BOOOM!

 

[Avenger]

Battleship is a poor mans Transformers. Which means it's a disease vagrant version of Avengers.

Who in their right mind would choose Battleship over Avengers?

Battleship is... dead in the water.

BOOOM!

You sunk my blockbuster!

 

[Xeno]

When this thread first started, I was the very first person to predict that The Avengers would earn over $1 billion. (I said it would make $1.1B, to be precise.) I don't claim to be the first person to think that, and others also predicted it. All of us took a lot of heat for thinking that this film would be the monster hit that it is from the resident doomsayers who thought TA would be lucky to make Iron Man money, if that.


Now the nattering nabobs of negativity have fled in the wake of the numbers, is it time to gloat? Because I really, really feel like gloating after months of back-and-forthing over The Avengers' prospects. We got it right so we deserve to do the victory dance. (If only we'd been betting....)

 

[Webfoot Hero]

When this thread first started, I was the very first person to predict that The Avengers would earn over $1 billion. (I said it would make $1.1B, to be precise.) I don't claim to be the first person to think that, and others also predicted it. All of us took a lot of heat for thinking that this film would be the monster hit that it is from the resident doomsayers who thought TA would be lucky to make Iron Man money, if that.


Now the nattering nabobs of negativity have fled in the wake of the numbers, is it time to gloat? Because I really, really feel like gloating after months of back-and-forthing over The Avengers' prospects. We got it right so we deserve to do the victory dance. (If only we'd been betting....)

I don't feel the need to gloat since the movie itself is good enough to stand on its own two feet and do the celebrating for us.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

When this thread first started, I was the very first person to predict that The Avengers would earn over $1 billion. (I said it would make $1.1B, to be precise.) I don't claim to be the first person to think that, and others also predicted it. All of us took a lot of heat for thinking that this film would be the monster hit that it is from the resident doomsayers who thought TA would be lucky to make Iron Man money, if that.

Now the nattering nabobs of negativity have fled in the wake of the numbers, is it time to gloat? Because I really, really feel like gloating after months of back-and-forthing over The Avengers' prospects. We got it right so we deserve to do the victory dance. (If only we'd been betting....)

I've been ribbing for a while now, only it seems like my attempts at humor haven't gone over quite like I wished.

Battleship is a poor mans Transformers. Which means it's a disease vagrant version of Avengers.

Who in their right mind would choose Battleship over Avengers?

Battleship is... dead in the water.

BOOOM!

Case in point.

So it made 80 mill Friday. 70 mill Saturday? The OW record is certain to be destroyed. Unless it somehow only makes like 10 mill Sunday.

A lot of crow is gonna be eaten. Me included, I thought it'd make around 150 mill, not 180.

180m at this point is the FLOOR, even for conservative estimates. 200m at the beginning was just crazy talk, now it's almost expected. t:

 

[TheNewGirl]

When this thread first started, I was the very first person to predict that The Avengers would earn over $1 billion. (I said it would make $1.1B, to be precise.) I don't claim to be the first person to think that, and others also predicted it. All of us took a lot of heat for thinking that this film would be the monster hit that it is from the resident doomsayers who thought TA would be lucky to make Iron Man money, if that.


Now the nattering nabobs of negativity have fled in the wake of the numbers, is it time to gloat? Because I really, really feel like gloating after months of back-and-forthing over The Avengers' prospects. We got it right so we deserve to do the victory dance. (If only we'd been betting....)

Haha Id go for it. Anyone who thought this wasn't going to make more than Iron Man is silly. Billion had crossed my mind, but I figured it would have been too good to be true, so I realistically thought 750 mil or so, but this is spectacular!

 

[Gamma Burst]

When this thread first started, I was the very first person to predict that The Avengers would earn over $1 billion. (I said it would make $1.1B, to be precise.) I don't claim to be the first person to think that, and others also predicted it. All of us took a lot of heat for thinking that this film would be the monster hit that it is from the resident doomsayers who thought TA would be lucky to make Iron Man money, if that.


Now the nattering nabobs of negativity have fled in the wake of the numbers, is it time to gloat? Because I really, really feel like gloating after months of back-and-forthing over The Avengers' prospects. We got it right so we deserve to do the victory dance. (If only we'd been betting....)

I'm already gloating.
Eat it, haters!t:

 

[spider-neil]

I absolutely do not see TDKR beating 200m, not without 3D to bump up ticket prices.

 

[Casius--J]

I absolutely do not see TDKR beating 200m, not without 3D to bump up ticket prices.

Ooooooo controversial words here, could start a flame war.

But honestly.....I agree with you. Everyone assumes just because TDK was such a success that the third is bound to be. But it doesnt always work out that way and imo TDK looked more interesting than TDKR looks right now.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I said this in the batman forum but... honestly the whole box office argument is moot anyways neither of these films will outgross avatar.

On another note however the avengers very well may have the edge in opening 3d and all however i am almost certain tdkr will have better legs. Aside from film quality i feel the comeptition from may onwards is gonna be tougher than from late july onwards. TDK made a killing in july into august 4 weeks at #1.

The avengers best case scenario is 3 weekends and even that is pushing it. MIB3 is a definite number 1 debut, dark shadows and battleship are tbd.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Ooooooo controversial words here, could start a flame war.

But honestly.....I agree with you. Everyone assumes just because TDK was such a success that the third is bound to be. But it doesnt always work out that way and imo TDK looked more interesting than TDKR looks right now.

Yeah...Better concentrate on the Avengers performance only.

 

[spider-neil]

I said this in the batman forum but... honestly the whole box office argument is moot anyways neither of these films will outgross avatar.

On another note however the avengers may have the edge in opening however i am almost certain tdkr will have better legs. Aside from film quality i feel the comeptition from may onwards is gonna be tougher from late july onwards. TDK made a killing in july into august 4 weeks at #1.

The avengers best case scenario is 3 weekends and even that is pushing it. MIB3 is a definite number 1 debut, dark shadows and battleship are tbd.

TDKR is coming out the same time as ASM. spider-man is ridiculously popular overseas and I suspect both will eat into each others take abroad.

 

[The Morningstar]

TDKR has more competition with ASM. Dark Shadows and Battleship are nothing to Avengers.

And i'm sceptical that MiB3 will be big. Is Will Smith even relevant anymore? When was his last big film? 2008?

 

[Bruce Malone]

TDKR is coming out the same time as ASM. spider-man is ridiculously popular overseas and I suspect both will eat into each others take abroad.

No it's coming out 2 weeks after, trust me you rather have your competition debuting behind you than in-front. By the time TDKR debuts all the hard core spidey fans will have seen the film already and for anyone else in the GA with even a taste for superheroes they will be flocking to TDKR, the hype will be deafening by that time.

Spider-man this year is sort of in the position that hellboy and TIH were in 2008, summer superhero movies that got swallowed up by the tdk juggernaught.

TASM is a darkhorse right now, no one really knows how it will do.

 

[The Morningstar]

Comparing Spidey to Hellboy is... silly.

And suggesting that people will flock to Bats over Spidey, or that TDKR will automatically be a better film just reeks of Bat fan arrogance.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Comparing Spidey to Hellboy is... silly.

And suggesting that people will flock to Bats over Spidey, or that TDKR will automatically be a better film just reeks of Bat fan arrogance.

True. Not to mention that spidey is considerably more succesful overseas than batman is.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Comparing Spidey to Hellboy is... silly.

And suggesting that people will flock to Bats over Spidey, or that TDKR will automatically be a better film just reeks of Bat fan arrogance.

Sorry if it came off arrogant but im sorry that's a fact. TDKR's opening weekend will be within a few million give or take of what avengers is doing now i.e shutting down the BO for any other film.

Even if tasm turns out to be a great film it will not be able to muster anywhere near the hype or press that TDKR will as the final nolan bat film. Especially in its 3rd week in theaters at the time.

 

[The Caped Knight]

I'm very glad to see "The Avengers" is a monster Box office hit and is making money. It deserve it.

 

[The Morningstar]

Sorry if it came off arrogant but im sorry that's a fact. TDKR's opening weekend will be within a few million give or take of what avengers is doing now i.e shutting down the BO for any other film.

Even if tasm turns out to be a great film it will not be able to muster anywhere near the hype or press that TDKR will as the final nolan bat film. Especially in its 3rd week in theaters at the time.

It's not a fact. This is ****ing Spider-Man we're talking about. He is as big as Batman in terms of pop culture icon status.

I agree that TDKR will be bigger than ASM, but to suggest it will completely steam roll it? I don't think so.