The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[iJackSparrow]

That is good to hear. Especially after what happened with Thor. I am not a 3D guy and I think it is nice when there is an option.

I'm usually not a 3D guy myself, but I feel this is the best 3D movie experience I've ever had. I've seen people comparing with Avatar, saying it's almost as good. For me Avatar looks like a glorified videogame, so I'm happy to see a movie using 3D such cleverly as The Avengers does.

 

[spider-neil]

I've seen the movie 3 times. twice in 3D and 1 in 2D.
my first viewing was excellent, loved the 3D. my second viewing was worse (my glasses were cloudy). my 2D experience was 'meh' I definately preferred the depth of 3D.

 

[T"Challa]

Ok i just woke up about half an hr ago

200 mill opening week?!

 

[Doctor Jones]

No.

Movies with fantastic WOM have moderate drops.

TDK dropped only 52% it's second weekend.

We've never seen a OW this huge before so it's hard for us to be sure and know how much it will drop. I mean this isn't $5 or $10 million higher than record breaking OW's that have come before it. It could either open huge and get more people in as time goes on with not that much of a drop, or this was so huge everyone who wanted to see it saw it this opening weekend. So at this point it's very hard to be certain. It could follow a same pattern as past record breakers and good films, or it could do something different.

Or I'm just overthinking it and it's pretty simple.

 

[ClarkLuther55]

CinemaScore exit polling results had audiences giving The Avengers an extremely rare "A+" grade.

Just to put into perspective what this means, an "A-" grade, itself considered a strong CinemaScore that studios would be very happy to have, would be the average of a bunch of "B+" and "A" grades. Which means that some people loved the move, while some people thought that it was alright and just somewhat good. Overall, a nice grade. Most movies satisfy audiences with "B+" averages, which means that there are even more people who dislike the movie

An "A+" average means that almost NO ONE saw this movie without being blown away.

Word of mouth is going to be huge.

 

[spider-neil]

I am not sure "stars" play into it at this point. TDKR is a franchise like Transformers... just good. Like the Avengers has just become.



Not sure about the weekday mornings not making money for The Avengers. Yeah kids are in school still, but that doesn't mean no one goes to the theater.

Dark Shadows is the question. Terribly advertiser, but it has Depp. Don't have any idea what is going to happen.

I went to a thursday afternoon showing of avengers and it was dead, virtually empty.

 

[J.Howlett]

Congrats to Marvel/Disney and the hardcore fans. 200 million is obscene. Personally, I don't think the film is as good as the numbers it got but it's fun to watch and it has some thrilling moments.

It'll be king of the box office this year. Rises and Hobbit won't get to these numbers.

 

[cherokeesam]

I placed my bet on the 800 million > marker many moons ago, and I was one of the ones who doubted that Avengers would break the $1 billion box office club.

I've never been happier to be wrong in my life.

Congrats, Marvel, and congrats, Disney. *Great* to see the partnership paying off this quickly....and that's gotta mean great things for more Marvel films getting the greenlight; for more marquee talent to join Marvel Studios; for Marvel to get bigger budgets and bigger gambles than Disney might have granted just a few months ago.

History in the making.

And I'm not gonna jump on the whole Avengers vs. TDKR bandwagon --- Avengers' success is great news for TDKR as well. It's great news for the whole CBM genre, which is what we're here for, right, folks? I just sincerely hope it lights a fire under Warners' asses and makes them quit fretting about the failure of Green Lantern. If DC would set up a cinematic universe like the MCU, they could see this kind of success as well, and they damn well know it.

CBMs are alive and well. Can I get an AMEN

 

[Marvin]

Those figures are ****ing crazy, dude. I feel all excited and proud for some reason-- I guess since I was into it from the beginning when IM1 was on its way to release and even though their movies are popular I've felt like Marvel Studios was in this weird underdog position because of the limited character rights. Like all these people had doubted they'd be able to turn the characters into household names with Avengers or that it would reach great heights because of the lack of Spider-Man or Wolverine and here we are.

But most of all, it's exciting because it means we can potentially get more fun blockbusters that actually put a value on characters. But execs probably won't see it that way...

I've yet to see the film myself, but I've read that there is almost no "Character development" in and of itself. Exec's will see what they are trained to see. The minute you put relevant properties together in a shared universe, strange and magical things happen.

Look for this to happen more now, and not just with superheroes.

oh to be fly on the wall in the WB exec meeting right now.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

CinemaScore exit polling results had audiences giving The Avengers an extremely rare "A+" grade.

Just to put into perspective what this means, an "A-" grade, itself considered a strong CinemaScore that studios would be very happy to have, would be the average of a bunch of "B+" and "A" grades. Which means that some people loved the move, while some people thought that it was alright and just somewhat good. Overall, a nice grade. Most movies satisfy audiences with "B+" averages, which means that there are even more people who dislike the movie

An "A+" average means that almost NO ONE saw this movie without being blown away.

Word of mouth is going to be huge.

The one thing about WoM. When 200 million dollars worth of people already went to see it, how many people are left to convince to see it?

 

[TheNewGirl]

On the 3d... Id actually rather see it multiple times in 3d. After viewing it the first time in 3D IMAX thats the only way to go in my opinion. It was so freaking grand.

IMAX 3D is the way to go, its 100% immersive and theres absolutely no darkening of the screen. + the ridiculously amazing sound quality compared to regular theaters.

Regular Real D 3D BS is what sucks. I wouldn't recommend that at all haha.

 

[ElMariachi]

Not sure about the weekday mornings not making money for The Avengers. Yeah kids are in school still, but that doesn't mean no one goes to the theater

Not many will see movies on weekday afternoons in May. Kids dont get out of school until June and of course most adults are working. Its a distinct advantage for a July movie when all students are out of school and people tend to take their vacations. This is why most big movies are released in summer or during spring, winter/Christmas, or Thanksgiving.

TDKR has advantages as well, so i wouldnt get too caught up on 3D. Like i said, almost all big movies are 3D.

 

[DieSmiling]

As incredible as this is, I wonder if this will be very frontloaded. I mean I expect WOM to be great so there will be repeat viewings but I'm curious about next week.

I honestly don't think so -- I'd go as far as to say that he May slate of movies is so weak that I think Avengers will clean up and will have a legit shot at $500 mil domestic...

I mean, how many people do you know that are pumped for Battleship or MIB 3? Who really wants to see Dark Shadows?

I think you'll get a lot of repeat viewings.

 

[The Morningstar]

So even if this has a 50% drop it could still make 100 million on it's second weekend? WHHHAAAAAAATTTT!?!?!

 

[Donut]

I wonder how soon we will get The Box Office TV Spot for this one ?

 

[DieSmiling]

Not many will see movies on weekday afternoons in May. Kids dont get out of school until June and of course most adults are working. Its a distinct advantage for a July movie when all students are out of school and people tend to take their vacations. This is why most big movies are released in summer or during spring, winter/Christmas, or Thanksgiving.

TDKR has advantages as well, so i wouldnt get too caught up on 3D. Like i said, almost all big movies are 3D.

In many parts the country school is getting out very soon.

 

[spider-neil]

The one thing about WoM. When 200 million dollars worth of people already went to see it, how many people are left to convince to see it?

yep, I'm really curious to see how much of that 200m is front loaded.
avatar did 70m opening week and the made 10m every week for MONTHS.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

On the 3d... Id actually rather see it multiple times in 3d. After viewing it the first time in 3D IMAX thats the only way to go in my opinion. It was so freaking grand.

IMAX 3D is the way to go, its 100% immersive and theres absolutely no darkening of the screen. + the ridiculously amazing sound quality compared to regular theaters.

Regular Real D 3D BS is what sucks. I wouldn't recommend that at all haha.

Question about IMAX 3D, is the screen actually full IMAX size?

 

[Son of Coul]

And I'm not gonna jump on the whole Avengers vs. TDKR bandwagon --- Avengers' success is great news for TDKR as well. It's great news for the whole CBM genre, which is what we're here for, right, folks? I just sincerely hope it lights a fire under Warners' asses and makes them quit fretting about the failure of Green Lantern. If DC would set up a cinematic universe like the MCU, they could see this kind of success as well, and they damn well know it.

CBMs are alive and well. Can I get an AMEN

Yes, I recall one of the execs at WB saying that if they continued with the GL franchise they realized the problem was they needed to make it "darker and grittier."

This whole thing should show it can be done both ways, and I'd love to keep seeing these movies made with varying degrees of tone.

 

[DieSmiling]

yep, I'm really curious to see how much of that 200m is front loaded.
avatar did 70m opening week and the made 10m every week for MONTHS.

Well, Avengers has no shot at Avatar-like legs simply because it's a summer movie. There's just too much competition, to many big releases.

Titanic and Avatar did what they were able to do largely because they opened in December and just owned weak movie months like January and February.

 

[The Morningstar]

I think that's the case in most theaters, I never thought I'd be recommending people to go with 3D, and here I am doing it.

Yea, i usually hate 3D, especially post converted. But here it was actually good. It wasn't just gimmicky things that leap out at the screen, it made the views have depth, especially the shots of Iron Man flying above the NYC skyline. One shot in particular, where IM is in the foreground and a big leviathan thing is in the background crushing buildings was spectacular in 3D.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yes, I recall one of the execs at WB saying that if they continued with the GL franchise they realized the problem was they needed to make it "darker and grittier."

This whole thing should show it can be done both ways, and I'd love to keep seeing these movies made with varying degrees of tone.

They should of just made it good in the first place.

 

[Marvin]

So even if this has a 50% drop it could still make 100 million on it's second weekend? WHHHAAAAAAATTTT!?!?!

so true.

This has officially entered that, "you gotta see this" zone. Everyone telling everyone and the snow ball only grows from there. After work on Wed, next friday...people not wanting to feel left out...

exciting times for Marvel Studios.

 

[DieSmiling]

Yes, I recall one of the execs at WB saying that if they continued with the GL franchise they realized the problem was they needed to make it "darker and grittier."

This whole thing should show it can be done both ways, and I'd love to keep seeing these movies made with varying degrees of tone.

I don't think this changes anything. The Spider-Man movies had obviously already proved that superhero movies lighter in tone can be wildly successful.

 

[JP]

So even if this has a 50% drop it could still make 100 million on it's second weekend? WHHHAAAAAAATTTT!?!?!

More like 70%...