The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[DarthSkywalker]

yeah, I think that is what is going to happen. do 3D screens have the ability to show 2D movies?

I honestly have no idea, but I want to say no.

 

[spider-neil]

TDKR will not make 200 million without 3D. I don't think any film will. Save this post and make me eat crow if i have to. It won't happen.

I agree, morningstar.
I don't see how that is possible;

a) you are showing the movie on less screens (no 3D)
b) you are charging less for tickets (3D adds $3 per ticket)

so I don't see HOW it can beat $200m opening weekend

 

[SuperBatman]

PUNY BOX OFFICE HULK and the Avengers Just Smashed It

Estimates says a 200 million Weekend.

 

[iJackSparrow]

SUNDAY AM… REFRESH FOR LATEST… It’s now official — Marvel’s The Avengers is a monster worldwide hit for Disney in 2D, Digital 3D, RealD, and IMAX 3D theaters. The studio says 52% saw it in*3D, 40% in traditional 3D, 8% in IMAX, and 4% on premium large format. Exit polls showed the actioner attracted a four-quadrant audience with*50%*over age 25 and 50% under 25, while*60% were male and*40% female. Also 55% were couples, 24% families, and 21% teens. Hollywood couldn’t be happier because it kicks off the all-important Summer 2012 movie season with sensational numbers. Avengers*lived up to its*billing as the ‘Superhero Team-Up Of A Lifetime’ by featuring all-in-one pic the iconic Marvel figures Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, Thor, Captain America, Hawkeye, Black Widow, and Nick Fury. Disney says it’s looking at a record*$69.7M grosses for Saturday*after making $80.5M Friday (including $18.7M midnights) from 4,349 U.S. and Canadian locations, including 3,364 plays in 3D.*Studio confirms it’s*on track to shatter the domestic weekend opening record with*$200.3M. (Warner Bros’ 3D Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 finale used to hold that record with $169M.) I believe Disney is being overly conservative and*the final figure will exceed that since Avengers should make over $50M on Sunday. (And I thought SNL Kagan’s report predicting that $200M domestic debut before the weekend was nuts. Not now…) Disney will report exact international numbers*later Sunday*but says the worldwide total is already $640M after playing almost everywhere around the globe for the past 10 days including Russia and now China. Jeremy Renner (Hawkeye) went to*the Beijing Film Festival to help open the film Saturday.*One more thing to keep in mind: Avengers accumulated a massive foreign number without opening yet in the major market of Japan.*Globally, IMAX Avengers grossed $21.1+M this weekend and the global IMAX cume will be approx $31.2M as of Sunday night. IMAX Avengers brought in $6.1 mil internationally (which includes an amazing first day gross in China of $1.1M) on 174 digital-only locations. In North America IMAX had one big issue: it ran out of seats to sell. Avengers grossed $15+M domestically on 275 digital-only IMAX screens, which looks to be a virtual tie with the Harry Potter finale for the highest grossing opening weekend in IMAX’s history. It reports 17 of the top 20 engagements in North America playing the film were IMAX runs, and 110 domestic IMAX locations established a new opening Saturday record. The global pressure was on because Avengers is the first Marvel Studios film from The Walt Disney Studios which took over marketing and distribution duties from Paramount. Disney CEO/President Bob Iger bought the comics entertainment company for $4 billion in 2009. Paramount still gets marquee credit and a portion of the fees. (I’m told that when Disney bought the distribution of Avengers and Iron Man 3, Paramount was paid a minimum of $115M. It gets the higher of the $115M or the combination of its 8% fee on Avengers, plus 9% on next years Iron Man 3. “Looks like there will be overages!” a Paramount exec told me excitedly Sunday. Paramount also kept the pay rights as part of the deal so Avengers will debut on Epix.) Why did this superhero actioner do so well at the box office? As one of my commenters succinctly summarizes: “Note to Hollywood: This is what happens when you let comic fans do comic book movies. Joss Whedon knocked it out of the park. The right mix of humor without camp, special effects without overusage, and action with good script. Having actors who like and/or know the characters doesn’t hurt either. Props to the casting folks.”*More details below.

No other major pic dared go up against this juggernaut. Holdovers only total $45M this weekend which is looking like $230M – or +38% over last year. Here’s the Top 10 (based on weekend estimates):

1. Marvel’s The Avengers (Disney) NEW [4,349 Theaters] PG13
Friday $80.5M, Saturday $69.7M, Weekend $200M, Global $640M

2. Think Like A Man (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 3 [2,010 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.6M, Saturday $3.3M, Weekend $8.0M, Cume $73.0M

3. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 7 [2,794 Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.6M, Saturday $2.6M, Weekend $5.7M, Cume $380.7M

4. Pirates! Band of Misfits 3D (Aardman/Sony) Week 2 [3,358 Theaters] PG
Friday $1.3M, Saturday $2.4M, Weekend $5.4M (-51%), Cume $18.3M

5. The Lucky One (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,005 Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.9M, Saturday $2.3M, Weekend $5.4M, Cume $47.8M

6. The Five-Year Engagement (Universal) Week 2 [2,941 Theaters] R
Friday $1.7M, Saturday $2.2M, Weekend $5.2M, Cume $19.3M

7. The Raven (Relativity) Week 2 [2,209 Theaters] R
Friday $844K (-62%), Saturday $1.1M, Weekend $2.6M, Cume $12.1M

8. Safe (Lionsgate) Week 2 [2,271 Theaters] R
Friday $825K (-66%), Saturday $1.0M, Weekend $2.5M, Cume $12.9M

9. Chimpanzee (Disneynature) Week 3 [1,531 Theaters] PG
Friday $707K, Saturday $975K, Weekend $2.3M, Cume $22.9M

10. The Three Stooges (Fox) Week 4 [2,174 Theaters] PG
Friday $480K, Saturday $850K, Weekend $1.8M, Cume $39.6M


Source: http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...th-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/#comments

Just take a look at what I've bolded on Nikki's report and go ****ING CRAZY. t:

 

[PokeJ]

Why was this movie so successful compared to the others? A lot of the buildup movies were hits, but nothing like this monster.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I agree, morningstar.
I don't see how that is possible;

a) you are showing the movie on less screens (no 3D)
b) you are charging less for tickets (3D adds $3 per ticket)

so I don't see HOW it can beat $200m opening weekend

Not sure about this one. No 3D yes, but that doesn't mean less screens necessarily.

 

[The Morningstar]

The thing with 3D for this film, it's kinda hard to explain. Do you guys know that shot where it's right up close to IM, like we're looking over his shoulder and in the background a leviathan is cruising along taking out buildings? It was almost like i was sitting on IMs back riding along with him. It's the first time i've ever truly been mind blown by 3D. It was literally like i was in the film.

 

[spider-neil]

$640m in TEN DAYS is IN. SANE.

 

[DieSmiling]

I agree, morningstar.
I don't see how that is possible;

a) you are showing the movie on less screens (no 3D)
b) you are charging less for tickets (3D adds $3 per ticket)

so I don't see HOW it can beat $200m opening weekend

Well, the answer HOW is obvious. Sell out more shows.

I saw Avengers in a 3D show at 4:20 in Kips Bay in Manhattan -- the theatre was approx 75% full (the IMAX 3D at 4:50 was sold out).

 

[spider-neil]

Not sure about this one. No 3D yes, but that doesn't mean less screens necessarily.

yes, less screens because if ASM is still making the theatre $13 per ticket they are not going to take it down to show a movie that will earn them $10. that doesn't make sense.

 

[DieSmiling]

Why was this movie so successful compared to the others? A lot of the buildup movies were hits, but nothing like this monster.

I think being the culmination of all those movies is a big factor. People who have seen these movies over the last several years have been waiting for this as every movie in the MCU has ultimately been hyping for this since 2008 -- this felt like a massive event you couldn't miss.

 

[Iceman]

Why was this movie so successful compared to the others? A lot of the buildup movies were hits, but nothing like this monster.

Because they were the build up and this is the main event.

 

[DieSmiling]

yes, less screens because if ASM is still making the theatre $13 per ticket they are not going to take it down to show a movie that will earn them $10. that doesn't make sense.

What are you talking about? TDKR is going to sell out most of its shows its first week -- Spider-Man will have been in theatres for two and a half weeks by that point. Theatres will make WAAAAY more on TDKR screens than Spider-Man screens.

 

[spider-neil]

The thing with 3D for this film, it's kinda hard to explain. Do you guys know that shot where it's right up close to IM, like we're looking over his shoulder and in the background a leviathan is cruising along taking out buildings? It was almost like i was sitting on IMs back riding along with him. It's the first time i've ever truly been mind blown by 3D. It was literally like i was in the film.

they are definately getting better at post converted 3D. but I am really looking forward to ASM where it is FILMED in 3D with camera that have higher resolution than avatar.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

yes, less screens because if ASM is still making the theatre $13 per ticket they are not going to take it down to show a movie that will earn them $10. that doesn't make sense.

I am pretty sure TDKR at $10 a ticket is going to make you more money the TASM in its 3rd week. Just a hunch.

60 people paying 10 bucks > 15 people paying 13. A lot less popcorn to.

 

[The Morningstar]

It's funny looking back to a few months ago people were saying that the build up factor, the team up factor wouldn't play a part. That this movie would only attract the same number of people as the solo movies.

 

[DACrowe]

I placed my bet on the 800 million > marker many moons ago, and I was one of the ones who doubted that Avengers would break the $1 billion box office club.

I've never been happier to be wrong in my life.

Congrats, Marvel, and congrats, Disney. *Great* to see the partnership paying off this quickly....and that's gotta mean great things for more Marvel films getting the greenlight; for more marquee talent to join Marvel Studios; for Marvel to get bigger budgets and bigger gambles than Disney might have granted just a few months ago.

History in the making.

And I'm not gonna jump on the whole Avengers vs. TDKR bandwagon --- Avengers' success is great news for TDKR as well. It's great news for the whole CBM genre, which is what we're here for, right, folks? I just sincerely hope it lights a fire under Warners' asses and makes them quit fretting about the failure of Green Lantern. If DC would set up a cinematic universe like the MCU, they could see this kind of success as well, and they damn well know it.

CBMs are alive and well. Can I get an AMEN

I do think it should light a fire under WB that has been sitting on at least a half dozen potential franchises that it hasn't acted upon from the DC Universe for decades.

However, Whedon made a good point in an interview recently that the DC Universe is a tougher nut to crack cinematically. Batman is an exception, because he is so visually cinematic with the billowing cape in darkness and can be grounded in a gritty, criminal setting. However, even he, like the rest of DC, is almost a "god" among men (even moreso than Marvel's Thor), because the characters are larger than life. Marvel makes their heroes "normal" or people with problems, while the DC heroes are supposed to be above everyone else. That's one of the many problems the GL film faced in that the character is larger than life and supposed to be an elite cut above all humanity. Nolan found the secret of grounding that into realistic reactions from a city about such a strange "legend." But that's harder to do with, say, Wonder Woman or The Flash.

It's doable, but it's going to take more creativity and intelligence than the paint-by-numbers approach they did in GL. And as much as I love Nolan's Batman, you can't use him to create this world on screen, in my opinion.

 

[spider-neil]

What are you talking about? TDKR is going to sell out most of its shows its first week -- Spider-Man will have been in theatres for two and a half weeks by that point. Theatres will make WAAAAY more on TDKR screens than Spider-Man screens.

to be honest I don't know the logistics of switching 3D screens over to 2D, it may be possible that you CAN'T show 2D movies on a 3D screen.

 

[iJackSparrow]

I am pretty sure TDKR at $10 a ticket is going to make you more money the TASM in its 3rd week. Just a hunch.

60 people paying 10 bucks > 15 people paying 13. A lot less popcorn to.

I'm not so sure. People are really understimating Spider-Man. Especially internationally.

 

[mclay18]

yeah, I think that is what is going to happen. do 3D screens have the ability to show 2D movies?

Why is this even a question? Of course they do.

 

[thalidomide]

Marvel = winning

 

[spider-neil]

nolan is a man of principle but not even post converting TDKR feels like a mistake, a mistake that may bite him in the bat arse.

 

[DieSmiling]

I'm not so sure. People are really understimating Spider-Man. Especially internationally.

I don't think so. Can't speak to internationally, but domestically it just doesn't have the buzz Avengers or TDKR has.

It will still do great business -- Spider-Man is a uber popular, especially with kids but I think it's currently a distant third as far as the big summer movies go...

I just think they whiffed with the marketing. I don't think anyone cares about Peter's parents.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm not so sure. People are really understimating Spider-Man. Especially internationally.

You really think people are going to pack the theater two weeks later with Bats coming out? Don't see it.

 

[spider-neil]

Why is this even a question? Of course they do.

well if they can the next question is will they (show a movie they are charging less per ticket)?