The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[DieSmiling]

nolan is a man of principle but not even post converting TDKR feels like a mistake, a mistake that may bite him in the bat arse.

It's not going to affect him at all. Do you really think Nolan cares at all if TDKR outgrosses Avengers?

WB is probably unnerved that he's sticking to his guns, though... But they want to appease him so he stays in house.

 

[DyeLorean]

Not much to explain. Films have depth. They are three dimensional. The thing with the glasses isn't actually 3D. It is called stereoscopy. At least that is how Nolan explained it.

Ummm. No. Regular films have 2 dimensions. Width, height. A second eye/camera adds the third dimension, depth.

Movies filmed with 2 lenses are the most accurate representation of 3 dimensions. Post-converted is another story, that could be stereoscopy.

 

[warcam]

Just think....if that $200 mil figure holds, and TA drops 60% by next weekend (which I don't see happening), it'll still hold the record for biggest 2nd weekend, too, beating Avatar & TDK by $5 million. Unbelievable.

 

[weezerspider]

nolan is a man of principle but not even post converting TDKR feels like a mistake, a mistake that may bite him in the bat arse.

The film will still make plenty of money. He's an artist and he refused to use it. You got to have respect for that. In a day where all we do is complain about guys like Michael Bay, Nolan actually shows some principle and we question it? If this thing wasn't a guaranteed hit, sure, but we know it'll make plenty of $. Maybe the 3D will be the X-factor in that record, but Nolan doesn't care about the record. WB might, but they won't be too mad at him after three huge hits(TDK, Inception, TDKR).

 

[DieSmiling]

well if they can the next question is will they (show a movie they are charging less per ticket)?

Yes, they're not going to show the most anticipated movie of 2012 because they can charge 3 dollars more for a 3D movie that has been in theaters for two and a half weeks.

Your logic is baffling.

 

[spider-neil]

how does putting up new movies work?
you give a movie a run of two weeks regardless?
you take down a movie for a more popular movie even if the previous movie hasn't run a couple of weeks?

spidey will be out for 2 weeks so what happens when TDKR comes out? spidey movies are taken down?

 

[iJackSparrow]

Records that The Avengers will take ~26~ (possibly more!)

Opening Weekend
Opening Week
Second Weekends
Summer Opening
Saturday Gross
Sunday Gross

Summer
Summer Opening
Summer Starts
May Opening
Rate PG-13

Widest Gap
Opening Weeked Biggest Gaps
Top Theatre Averages - Wide Release

2-Day Gross
3-Day Gross
4-Day Gross
5-Day Gross
6-Day Gross
7-Day Gross
8-Day Gross
9-Day Gross
10-Day Gross
Fastest to $100M
Fastest to $150M
Fastest to $200M
Fastest to $250M
Fastest to $300M

 

[DieSmiling]

how does putting up new movies work?
you give a movie a run of two weeks regardless?
you take down a movie for a more popular movie even if the previous movie hasn't run a couple of weeks?

spidey will be out for 2 weeks so what happens when TDKR comes out? spidey movies are taken down?

Of course Spider-Man won't be taken down entirely. It will lose screens though, definitely it's 2D screens.

Truth be told TDK being only in 2D helps TASM because Spidey will hold onto those 3D screens.

 

[iJackSparrow]

Forgot probably the fastest to get to 1BI.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Ummm. No. Regular films have 2 dimensions. Width, height. A second eye/camera adds the third dimension, depth.

Movies filmed with 2 lenses are the most accurate representation of 3 dimensions. Post-converted is another story, that could be stereoscopy.

So Nolan is lying?

http://screenrant.com/christopher-nolan-imax-3d-cgi-mlee-164945/

 

[iJackSparrow]

Batman? Huh, we have a Hulk!!! t:

 

[KingBat]

Avengers just took down, another TDK record. Fastest to 200m:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/fastest.htm?page=200&p=.htm

 

[spider-neil]

Of course Spider-Man won't be taken down entirely. It will lose screens though, definitely it's 2D screens.

Truth be told TDK being only in 2D helps TASM because Spidey will hold onto those 3D screens.

thanks

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Records that The Avengers will take ~26~ (possibly more!)

Opening Weekend
Opening Week
Second Weekends
Summer Opening
Saturday Gross
Sunday Gross

Summer
Summer Opening
Summer Starts
May Opening
Rate PG-13

Widest Gap
Opening Weeked Biggest Gaps
Top Theatre Averages - Wide Release

2-Day Gross
3-Day Gross
4-Day Gross
5-Day Gross
6-Day Gross
7-Day Gross
8-Day Gross
9-Day Gross
10-Day Gross
Fastest to $100M
Fastest to $150M
Fastest to $200M
Fastest to $250M
Fastest to $300M

`


Strange thing...reading that reminds me of one prolific poster here that keeps reminding everybody that there is NO WAY that The Avengers will break ANY kind of record.

hehe...good ol times!

 

[DyeLorean]

So Nolan is lying?

http://screenrant.com/christopher-nolan-imax-3d-cgi-mlee-164945/

He's not lying. He's talking metaphorically. My explanation is the literal thing. He's a filmmaker trying to convince himself, and the readers, why he doesn't like 3D and prefers Imax.

Have ever thought about my previous post? Doesn't make any sense to you? You're watching 3D right now, with your eyes. A regular movie doesn't have depth. Do you understand?

 

[Marvel]

Marvel = winning

Thank you, me and Charlie Sheen....

Wait, you weren't talking about me?????????

Seeing the 200 figure posted made me actually shout out loud!!! I got out of my chair and pumped my fist ala Wayne Gretzky.

And I'm off to see it again right now this time in "D-Box 3D" whatever that is!

Let's pay to see it again next weekend and bring home that $100 million 2nd weekend number shall we?!?!!

 

[Pond]

Why was this movie so successful compared to the others? A lot of the buildup movies were hits, but nothing like this monster.

Because its good. Because people are having fun. Because regular non fans and people are watching it again when they dont do it normally, because people are leaving theaters with a big smile on theire faces telling theire friends its really, really good...

People cheer, laugh, publicly, wich is not so common at all and shows you that they are enjoying it. And if people enjoy a movie, they will come to the cinema.

Its important for marvel to remember that the facts its a mash up, had much build up and advertising is really important, but its a happy customer who will purchase more and will make i a good bussiness. If the movie was bad, this numbers wouldnt be possible.

Reviews also helped, and the wom coming from Europe and prescreenings surely had something to do with it.

 

[spider-neil]

only 3 movies made more than $500m domestic

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/fastest.htm?page=500&p=.htm

does avengers have a shot?

 

[The Morningstar]

Yea, i'm in the UK, our cinemas are usually quiet. But the audience was at parts, in hysterics. There was audible gasps. Just an all around brilliant cinema experience both times i watched it.

 

[mclay18]

well if they can the next question is will they (show a movie they are charging less per ticket)?

Yes. For movies that don't have insane theater counts (where the 2D and 3D shows can be shown in separate theaters), both 2D and 3D shows are in the same auditorium. Most of the time movies like Dolphin Tale, Journey 2 and Wrath of the Titans have two regular shows and two 3D showings.

Most of the time for the latter, one 2D show is positioned as the cheapest matinee. For our theater chain, we have a "Super Bargain Matinee" special from 4:00 to 5:30 p.m. where everyone pays $5.50. (For 3D movies, the $3 surcharge is added on to make it $8.50 per person.) Couple that with our $1.50 dollar popcorn and drink "Stimulus" Tuesdays -- and that draws people in as well.

 

[DieSmiling]

only 3 movies made more than $500m domestic

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/fastest.htm?page=500&p=.htm

does avengers have a shot?

Definitely it has a shot. I think at this point it would almost be a bit disappointing if it didn't reach 500 million domestic... It has the mega opening (obv) and it has good reviews/word of mouth.

I also maintain the May slate of movies is weak. Dark Shadows looks terrible and will attract the niche Depp/Burton audience. Battleship looks like a Transformers wanna be. MIB 3? Who exactly has been clamoring for this threequel? Anybody?

I think Avengers will run wild.

 

[04nbod]

You really think people are going to pack the theater two weeks later with Bats coming out? Don't see it.

You know, the combo of cute as a button Andrew Garfield as Petey and a proper Gwen Stacey probably means I might skip Bats until the blu ray and just go to Spidey. Spidey looks fun.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

I don't think people should underestimate MIB 3...

i mean..it's a Will Smith movie AND a sequel to one of his biggest hits..

 

[iJackSparrow]

I actually think The Avengers can surpass Avatar by a $50M margin and become the biggest USA gross in history. t:

 

[spider-neil]

You know, the combo of cute as a button Andrew Garfield as Petey and a proper Gwen Stacey probably means I might skip Bats until the blu ray and just go to Spidey. Spidey looks fun.

and then there is the overflow of people that didn't/can't get to see TDKR