The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Carnage27]

BTW, this was NEVER going to beat the HP midnight showing record.

Yup. Never had a shot at it. The OW record is another story.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

They are prediciting that The Avengers will make about 150 million this weekend.

lol, Spider-man 3 achieved that with 10 million from midnight shows.

Avengers will make alot more. Possibly 175+ m.

 

[KangConquers]

I'm going with a $162 Million OW.

 

[Superhero 101]

I'd say $160 million flat have the international numbers been updated for today?

 

[kedrell]

should be closer to $600M WW after this weekend. And just a couple days ago ppl were saying $500M WW at best by that point.

 

[Iceman]

should be closer to $600M WW after this weekend. And just a couple days ago ppl were saying $500M WW at best by that point.

Wasn't that long ago people were saying $600m worldwide total! t:

 

[kedrell]

I think we can pretty much answer the question at this point of whether the whole is or isn't greater than the sum of the parts with regards to the box office success. That answer being yes, it is indeed greater.

 

[Iceman]

Internationally, THE AVENGERS powered up $22.9M yesterday, for a whopping total of $304M. (Exhibitor Relations)

 

[kedrell]

It's at $322.7M after domestic midnights.

 

[bonzob2000]

You guys are right -- it makes no sense to compare the midnight number to Twilight or Harry Potter, which have crazy upfront levels of demand from an obsessed fanbase, and were mostly released when school was out.

The key thing is to remember that most naysayers thought Avengers would be lucky to have a shot at doing Iron Man 2 numbers. Yet Avengers' midnight total beat the midnights for Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Thor, and Captain America COMBINED. That's insane.

 

[Chewy]

That midnight number is gargantuan

 

[kurac]

early friday DEADLINE estimate is 67 mill
it seems that its following dark knight to the point.first 18 mill midnight and now 67 mill friday.i think it will end up weekend with little more-about 163-165 mill...

 

[Chewy]

Numbers for Friday right now are just educated guesses. Don't mean much. Tonight and especially tomorrow morning we'll get more useful ones.

 

[TheVileOne]

Variety is reporting $65 million estimated for Friday.

All the people *****ing about the early international release can be quiet now since the US version got the final, final version with the extra scene.

 

[TheGambler]

$18.7 in midnight screenings?? That's the record for a superhero film, right? RIGHT?

 

[Raiden]

$18.7 in midnight screenings?? That's the record for a superhero film, right? RIGHT?

Yeah, I think it beats TDK's 18.5 mil from its midnight screenings.

Once Friday's actual gross comes out, we'll have a good idea what the final OW figure will be.

 

[TheGambler]

Yeah, I think it beats TDK's 18.5 mil from its midnight screenings.

Once Friday's actual gross comes out, we'll have a good idea what the final OW figure will be.

Incredible. Anything over $140m would be amazing.

 

[Raiden]

Incredible. Anything over $140m would be amazing.

The conservative estimate is actually 150 mil.

 

[Iceman]

Incredible. Anything over $140m would be amazing.

If Friday is confirmed at $67m then it would nearly be halfway to that on the 1st day!

 

[eddy]

I'm hoping for a Saturday increase. I don't see how it couldn't.

 

[Tony Stark]

This is from an article on BOM:

If The Avengers follows the pace of Spider-Man 3, it would wind up with an opening weekend over $280 million. The Iron Man 2 pace translates to a $320 million debut. Those are both outrageous figures, though, and it's hard to imagine that theaters are even capable of handling that sort of demand. It's more reasonable to expect The Avengers to perform in line with The Dark Knight and get to at least $160 million for the weekend.

IOW the only thing holding this movie back is Marvel may not have reserved enough screens. So that means this thing will probably have a reasonably low drop next week because people are going to get turned away at the ticket booth.

I think the article accidently reversed the IM2 and SM3 numbers, as SM3 grossed more. But that is really showing you the demand for this movie right now.

 

[Chewy]

I'm hoping for a Saturday increase. I don't see how it couldn't.

It's going to decrease on Saturday from the full Friday but increase from the actual day (ie non-midnight) business

 

[Iceman]

I'm hoping for a Saturday increase. I don't see how it couldn't.

DH2:
Friday 91m
Sat 42.4m
Sun 35.7

These mondo anticipated films with massive midnight business do more on their Fridays in the opening weekend (due to the midnight boost). After opening weekend when normality has returned Saturdays are the biggest day of the weekend.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Even TDK decreased on sat, the movie is a lock to do that like all films.

 

[BigThor]

All I know is, this little boy walked out of the theater and said "I'm Thor"!

Out of all of the Avengers the little rascal wanted to be Thor, I almost walked up to the boy and gave him a dollar.

I'm sure his mother would've been a bit hesitant about a strange black man handing her son money though.