The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Tony Stark]

I wish I would've been able to go to the midnight screening; maybe my $10 would've made a world of difference.

But as long TA can break TDK's OW record I'm okay with it.

Yeah we'll see. The biggest thing I can say is even with 4300 plus theaters showing this movie, there is a huge late surge of ticket buying that caused slowness with AMC's credit card systems, and that article I linked earlier from BOM saying that based on the numbers they were seeing if they projected it doing IM2 type business they were getting rediculous numbers like 250M. Obviously that's not going to happen, but it's not happening because the article points out the theater chains can't handle the business.

So that is going to be huge in weeks to come. Because I think this movie will have a much lower than expected second week drop.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Projection has raised to 70M, although Midnight was readjusted to 18.1M, however apparently AMC's credit card system is down, due to huge last minute influx of ticket buying, and that's screwing up some of the estimates.

should be right around 160 for the weekend with the record in play.

This is awesome.

 

[Tony Stark]

BOT is saying Nikki Finke updated her estimates to 70-74M, but I can't confirm because her twitter account isn't showing this.

 

[Avenger]

BOT is saying Nikki Finke updated her estimates to 70-74M, but I can't confirm because her twitter account isn't showing this.

 

[Tony Stark]

Cinemascore survey gave avengers an A+ rating. This thing is going to have incredible legs!

 

[flickchick85]

BOT is saying Nikki Finke updated her estimates to 70-74M, but I can't confirm because her twitter account isn't showing this.

Here ya go:

The Friday opening number now is thought to be at least $70 million — and maybe as high as $74M because late shows were coming on strong.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

And an A+ Cinemascore? This movie will have no problem breaking $400m domestic now. $1Billion, here we come!

Now I'm thinking...

$430M Domestic
$700M OS
=$1.13B Worldwide

 

[Xeno]

Here ya go:
http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/ave...sunday-with-u-s-canada-russia-china-openings/

And an A+ Cinemascore? This movie will have no problem breaking $400m domestic now. $1Billion, here we come!

I am not surprised about the late show numbers. When we left the theater at 10 PM, people were eagerly lining up for shows that started at 11:00 and later. In fact, they had overbooked some shows and had to bump people to later ones. The theater had printed signs with "The Avengers" and the time posted to show people where to queue up. I've never seen that before.


If they had more prints they would probably show it in more theaters because they had to turn away hundreds of people. Folks were pissed! Saturday will get a boost from the people who couldn't see TA tonight.

 

[Raiden]

Cinemascore survey gave avengers an A+ rating. This thing is going to have incredible legs!

I want to see TA makes a billion and maintain #1 for three weeks in a row.

 

[iJackSparrow]

Am I crazy for still being confident this will surpass the $200m barrier?

 

[BigThor]

Hey everyone I forgot to tell you all that when I was in for my showing this guy was back for a 2nd viewing.

The woman at the ticket both said "Didn't you come see this a few hours ago?" and the guy said "What? It was THAT good!".

 

[flickchick85]

If they had more prints they would probably show it in more theaters because they had to turn away hundreds of people. Folks were pissed! Saturday will get a boost from the people who couldn't see TA tonight.

Forget prints, they can interlock those. They need more auditoriums! t:

 

[Raiden]

Am I crazy for still being confident this will surpass the $200m barrier?

If TA makes 75 mil on Friday, it'd need another 125 mil for Saturday and Sunday to break the barrier, which won't be easy because it usually drops from Sat to Sun. I'll be happy if it can break DH2 record, though.

 

[Raiden]

Hey everyone I forgot to tell you all that when I was in for my showing this guy was back for a 2nd viewing.

The woman at the ticket both said "Didn't you come see this a few hours ago?" and the guy said "What? It was THAT good!".

Great story! t:

Hmm, why can't movie theatres just get rid of all the smaller movies to make room for TA? Is it because Disney just can't supply enough film rolls to meet the demands?

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah, $200m ain't gonna happen, but it does have that DH2 record within reach.

 

[iJackSparrow]

If TA makes 75 mil on Friday, it'd need another 125 mil for Saturday and Sunday to break the barrier, which won't be easy because it usually drops from Sat to Sun. I'll be happy if it can break DH2 record, though.

What if we get two insanely atypical days, with the dropping being shorter? Another thing: Finke's numbers, are they official or estimates?

 

[flickchick85]

They're estimates.

 

[Tony Stark]

Keep in mind this was only the 7th widest opening ever. It kind of makes you wonder why Disney held back, because clearly just about every show is selling out.

 

[iJackSparrow]

So while they could be shorter, there's still a chance they're even higher, isn't that true?

 

[Raiden]

Keep in mind this was only the 7th widest opening ever. It kind of makes you wonder why Disney held back, because clearly just about every show is selling out.

I hope it isn't Disney that is preventing TA from making history. But then again, they are the same studio that botched John Carter so you never know.

 

[flickchick85]

So while they could be shorter, there's still a chance they're even higher, isn't that true?

Yes, but not by so drastic an amount as you're suggesting. They are based on the actual numbers coming in so far, so as the night goes on, the more accurate the estimates become. These should be fairly accurate at this point.

 

[LostSon88]

I hope it isn't Disney that is preventing TA from making history. But then again, they are the same studio that botched John Carter so you never know.

But wouldn't that be a reason for them to want to make history? Because JC was such a disaster for them one would assume they would crave a record shattering weekend for TA.

Especially since well, they own Marvel Studios. Its not like its a rival or anything, its their product.

 

[Marvin]

I hope it isn't Disney that is preventing TA from making history. But then again, they are the same studio that botched John Carter so you never know.

Their screen count isn't that far off from the next few films above them. However there are films with much lower counts(no 3D or inflation) that didn't do too bad. Just look at THG's screen count.

The numbers should be interesting.

 

[iJackSparrow]

I hope it isn't Disney that is preventing TA from making history. But then again, they are the same studio that botched John Carter so you never know.

1. Search "Avengers sold out" on twitter.
2. Hit the refresh button.
3. Hit the refresh once again.
4. Proceed to hulk out.

 

[Marvin]

Yeah, $200m ain't gonna happen, but it does have that DH2 record within reach.

didn't DH2 have a freakish midnight of like $40 million or so?

 

[Chewy]

Now I'm thinking...

$430M Domestic
$700M OS
=$1.13B Worldwide

Just enough for #4 all-time (Behind Potter 8 and the Cameron duo)