The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[ElMariachi]

$111 million is crazy! That would be very impressive.

 

[Iceman]

If it gets anything like that it'll be more impressive than its opening weekend numbers.

 

[TheVileOne]

If it breaks $100 million in weekend two, I'd say $500 million domestic is all but assured at this point.

Could this get maybe even $1.5 billion worldwide?

 

[ElMariachi]

$111 million is crazy! That would be very impressive.

 

[thalidomide]

How much more before they hit 1 billion?

 

[marcvader]

+- $250,000,000

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

If it gets anything like that it'll be more impressive than its opening weekend numbers.

Hell yeah!

Checklist:

1. Critical succes : CHECK!

2. Monetary success; CHECK!

Is it too early to break out the champagne...or Nord mead?

 

[Mysteryman]

Pass around the nord meade !

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Pass around the nord meade !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DL4vR3PB2oY

 

[JP]

Box office guru is predicting $98million. BOG is usually on point with predicitions. So, this could very well hit $100mil this weekend.

After its record-shattering opening weekend, The Avengers has been holding up incredibly well during the week and will have no problem claiming the number one spot once again breaking more records in the process. Fans are loving the super hero saga and the 3D is giving the numbers a jolt. Another 3D action tentpole, 2009's Avatar, holds the record for the best gross ever for a film's second weekend with $75.6M during the Christmas holiday frame that year. And The Dark Knight holds the speed record for breaking the $350M mark in 14 days. Avengers should crush those industry records too by the time this weekend comes to an end on the tenth day of its release.


Looking at past Marvel titans from the same first weekend of May slot, second weekend drops were as follows: 69% for Wolverine, 62% for Spider-Man 3, 59% for Iron Man 2, and 47% for Thor which like the first Spider-Man and Iron Man films was the introductory film for the character, very well-received, and enjoyed a better hold. Avengers should play out more like a sequel, but a well-liked one. The third webslinger and the second Iron Man were both met with lukewarm reactions from fans while The Avengers is truly exciting everyone.


Many IMAX venues will - reluctantly - be switching to Dark Shadows or splitting the screen with the Depp vehicle thereby reducing the grossing potential of those screens this weekend. But the conventional 2D and 3D screens will still be selling out from coast to coast with grosses that most summer tentpoles never see on the opening weekend. Look for a drop of a little more than 50% which would put Avengers at roughly $98M for the Friday-to-Sunday period pumping the ten-day cume up to a record $370M on its way to $550M or even more.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

550 mill is possible?!?!


Christ on a pogo stick!

 

[Tony Stark]

Box office guru is predicting $98million. BOG is usually on point with predicitions. So, this could very well hit $100mil this weekend.

yeah I figured it will be real close. As I've said before you can throw out the Spider-man week 2 drop, that's never going to happen again. But if you look at TDK, IM1 and Thor, I think that' puts you in the -48% to -52% range, so that puts it right there.

 

[T"Challa]

A 100 mill 2nd week is bonkers..just absolutely bonkers. I'm not gonna hold out hope for it but if it happens, i might just pass out..and then go see the movie again when i regain consciousness

 

[Iceman]

Hell yeah!

Checklist:

1. Critical succes : CHECK!

2. Monetary success; CHECK!

Is it too early to break out the champagne...or Nord mead?

You're too late mate.. it's all gone! (since last week ).

 

[Splat]

The success of this movie is crazy, I never thought it'd do this well.

 

[Iceman]

Box office guru is predicting $98million. BOG is usually on point with predicitions. So, this could very well hit $100mil this weekend.

The analysis makes sense. Hopefully it can just make it over $100m. If that happens I won't need any more round numbers [/total lies ].

 

[Tony Stark]

What is Avatars record to 1B? Not sure Avengers can get that one. Will capture fastest to 250 today, 300 by end of week, and should get fastest to 400 and 500M

 

[Jordanstine]

BOG predicts $98M.

BOM predicts $111M.

So basically we're at least getting something around $104M.

 

[Tony Stark]

OK, if it does $111M this thing will get to $600.

 

[Iceman]

Posted elsewhere: So should be $270m before the weekend, possibly $370m after if these predictions happen and then $400m before the 3rd weekend. Competition really hasn't had a chance to even have a say yet as the money is being made so fast.

Edit: After the 4th weekend $500m possible.

 

[Jon Hex]

Before opening I was hoping it would overperform and get up to 850+ million WW.
But looks like it might reach 1.4-1.5 billion WW. Insane

 

[Superhero 101]

I'd say 90-100 million seems likely but 111 million seems to be reaching a bit too much

 

[DyeLorean]

I like how the conversation makes it seem like it's about a couple of coins.
1 billion dollars. Crazy.

 

[Raiden]

If it gets anything like that it'll be more impressive than its opening weekend numbers.

I agree. There were many blockbusters who had huge OW, but dropped like a brick in the following week. If The Avengers can make over 100 million in its second week, then it would be just as amazing as its 207 mil OW.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'd say 90-100 million seems likely but 111 million seems to be reaching a bit too much

Not with a 207 M open and pretty much no competition at the B.O. really that's only a 46.5% drop. I'd say most likely we're talking between 95-105M. It will get more than 90M as that would be an IM2 type drop and I think everyone agrees this has better legs than that.