The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[TheVileOne]

I got to be honest, I really think Avengers is #1 for a third weekend, I don't think anything can stop it from making over $600 million.

 

[KangConquers]

I got to be honest, I really think Avengers is #1 for a third weekend, I don't think anything can stop it from making over $600 million.

I find this idea flawed. The idea that "if there's nothing out people want to see more, they'll all just go to Avengers." Eventually, a movie reaches a saturation point. I think $600 M domestic is far from guaranteed, and I personally, think it won't happen.

My domestic guess remains $565 M. If it passes that? I'll be happy. But I think it's a nice, safe number.

 

[Travesty]

$550-$570 is my estimate.

 

[TheVileOne]

I find this idea flawed. The idea that "if there's nothing out people want to see more, they'll all just go to Avengers." Eventually, a movie reaches a saturation point. I think $600 M domestic is far from guaranteed, and I personally, think it won't happen.

My domestic guess remains $565 M. If it passes that? I'll be happy. But I think it's a nice, safe number.

It made $103 million its second weekend. Memorial Day is next weekend. I think it's getting $600 million.

 

[PokeJ]

I'm thinking it will finish around 530-540 million.

 

[AvengeME]

Should Marvel/Disney think of the late June/early July slot for the sequel to really maximize attendance and keep the competition low, or should just stick with the "first out of the gate" route with the early May slot?

After these numbers other studios do not really have a leg to stand on. Marvel/Disney should take a late June or early July slot. I think late June is the best, because you get the July 4th holiday, which is better than Memorial day, not to mention sooner relative to the release. Kids are out of school by then.

WB really doesn't have a leg to stand on, unless another Nolan Batman or World's Finest movie falls in the pipeline, they are out of summer franchises. The only property that may prove troublesome is Transformers 4, but that probably won't even be released the same year. Transformers is a monster overseas for some reason. Other Marvel films from Fox and Sony would not have precedent over Avengers 2.

 

[Iceman]

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/dic...art-international-box-office-begins-stronger/

FRIDAY 4:30 PM, 2ND UPDATE: My sources don’t see any dramatic upticks in early numbers – yet. What a disaster at the North American box office this early summer weekend with everything from today and a week ago tanking except for Marvel’s The Avengers which should make another $55M. Universal’s Battleship is stuck at $9M-$11M today and $30M (which is around the same meager amount where Warner Bros’ Dark Shadows debuted last weekend and is on life support now). Paramount’s The Dictator which opened weakly Wednesday is completely falling apart even for an ‘R’ rated movie with just $12M. And Lionsgate’s What To Expect When You’re Expecting is beating it with $15M. Hollywood is in a very dark mood today — and I’m finding that the movie moguls are not appreciating my humor when I ask, “Are your bags packed?”

 

[TheVileOne]

Marvel has always had the best results with first weekend of May, it's basically their weekend. Stick with that weekend. Spider-Man, X-Men 2, Spider-Man 3, Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Thor, and Avengers all came out that weekend.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Marvel has always had the best results with first weekend of May, it's basically their weekend. Stick with that weekend. Spider-Man, X-Men 2, Spider-Man 3, Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Thor, and Avengers all came out that weekend.

It's funny that Hollywood allows superhero movies to get the release date year after year.

I guess they realized those films are the best way to kick off the summer.

 

[KangConquers]

Marvel has always had the best results with first weekend of May, it's basically their weekend. Stick with that weekend. Spider-Man, X-Men 2, Spider-Man 3, Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Thor, and Avengers all came out that weekend.

Also the e'er so crappy Wolverine in 2009.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

We don't talk about that movie 'round here.

 

[TheVileOne]

Also the e'er so crappy Wolverine in 2009.

Actually it was Star Trek in 2009. Wolverine came out later. Close though.

 

[Superhero 101]

It made $103 million its second weekend. Memorial Day is next weekend. I think it's getting $600 million.

I don't think it will make a lot that weekend due to MIB iii it will probably make 35 tops I think avengers will finish at 540-550 domestic and 750 overseas the only movie I can think of making over 600 million domestically is tdkr

 

[Liam_H]

Actually it was Star Trek in 2009. Wolverine came out later. Close though.

Umm, no. Origins was released first. Star Trek came out the week after. I'm not counting a leak as being released first.

We don't talk about that movie 'round here.

Its okay you're not the only one still feeling the pain from it.

 

[Pond]

Its okay you're not the only one still feeling the pain from it.

Tell me about it...

 

[Quasimod0]

I don't think it will make a lot that weekend due to MIB iii it will probably make 35 tops I think avengers will finish at 540-550 domestic and 750 overseas the only movie I can think of making over 600 million domestically is tdkr

Think again.

 

[eddy]

Marvel has always had the best results with first weekend of May, it's basically their weekend. Stick with that weekend. Spider-Man, X-Men 2, Spider-Man 3, Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Thor, and Avengers all came out that weekend.

I wish Marvel could put out a non-Avengers title in early May of 2015 and Avengers on July 4th weekend of 2015. They'd pretty much own the entire summer.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Remember the days when this film was just supposed to do Iron Man numbers and Dark Shadows and Battleship were serious threats? Good times.

 

[TheVileOne]

I wish Marvel could put out a non-Avengers title in early May of 2015 and Avengers on July 4th weekend of 2015. They'd pretty much own the entire summer.

I think its better to let one movie like Avengers own the summer like this season.

MIB 3 looks horrible and I think it will have a disappointing opening weekend while Avengers still has a nice holdover.

 

[Tony Stark]

Battleship = Bombs away!

Another great weekend with Avengers at no. 1

 

[KangConquers]

Remember the days when this film was just supposed to do Iron Man numbers and Dark Shadows and Battleship were serious threats? Good times.

No one in the know ever said that. It was just fanboy gloom and doom / hysteria. Smart money was always on $800 M +.

Now (potentially) $1.4 B? That I never saw coming...

 

[mclay18]

If the third weekend gross holds, $55M is an amazing hold. I honestly expected it to tumble to $45M-$50M by now.

 

[jse]

No one in the know ever said that. It was just fanboy gloom and doom / hysteria. Smart money was always on $800 M +.

Now (potentially) $1.4 B? That I never saw coming...

This beast is just rampaging down the box office. Seen it twice now . I initially thought that avengers would do--when all is said and done-- 450M Dom (because 400 felt too low and 500 felt too high) and 750M OS (because Transformers 3 did 770M i thought around that was doable), for a WW total of 1.2B. And now instead its gonna gross that 450M after only 17 days, a new record. And it looks like its headed for 800-850M overseas... maybe more.

If from here on out Avengers performs as an average of IM,IM2,SM&SM3 (Marvel May openers) in terms of week-to-week drops, then it'll do 55.7M Dom over the weekend (i'm hoping it'll do more than that). It has already handily dethroned Spider-Man 3 as the OS SH champion (back in its 18th day of OS release i think) and it'll also have outgrossed the reigning domestic SH champion TDK's entire 231-day run in a mere 30 days (around June 1 or 2).

It'll be fastest to 500M in 24 days (Avatar in 32, TDK in 45, Titanic in 98)
Likely fastest to 550M in 35 days (Avatar in 38)
It'll be at 592M before TASM's first Friday (TA's 70th day).

It seems however that TA is doing better than just the average of the IMs and SMs because by that metric it would have only done 99.7M last weekend when it actually did 103M. So this is actually the floor in terms of what TA can do. In may be at 600 or so before TASM's first friday (not a record since Avatar did it in 47 days).

At the end of the day what really matters is that TA is an awesome movie. That it's demolishing box-office records left and right is just icing on the cake... although i do like my cake served with icing .

 

[Nemesis Prime]

I don't think it will make a lot that weekend due to MIB iii it will probably make 35 tops I think avengers will finish at 540-550 domestic and 750 overseas the only movie I can think of making over 600 million domestically is tdkr

What the hell are you smoking? If TDKR can beat TDK's domestic gross of $533,345,358 then that'll be an accomplishment. Personally I think it's going to fall way, way short of even TDK's box office figures, maybe $480 tops.

 

[Xeno]

No one in the know ever said that. It was just fanboy gloom and doom / hysteria. Smart money was always on $800 M +.

Now (potentially) $1.4 B? That I never saw coming...

While I agree that no one with any smarts claimed that The Avengers would max out at $600+ million WW and the Dark Shadows/Battleship combo would tank it stateside, there were plenty of people in this thread claiming just that. For months. Strangely enough, most of them became scarce right around the time the movie premiered overseas.


I honestly have no idea where The Avengers will top out at this point. It could reach $600 million domestic, certainly, but it could also stall shy of that. Wherever it ends up, its performance at the box office has been nothing short of extraordinary. I always knew it would reach the billion dollar mark, but I had no inkling of how fast it would get there. It's funny that those who predicted it would make a billion were derided as delusional fan(boys & girls), yet we were actually low-balling on our estimates of the film's earnings.