The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Tony Stark]

MIB, should open no. 1, but it's going to bomb. Having a film open 3 weeks at no. 1 in May is pretty much unheard of. Even though the competition was weak it's a huge accomplishment.

 

[Liam_H]

BoxOffice has it tracking at $85 million and they're pretty accurate most of the time. So that's not necessarily a bomb at least not yet.

 

[Silver Surfer]

MIB has Will Smith, nuff said.

 

[Xeno]

Falling to MIB3 in its fourth week is no disappointment for The Avengers. Just a few weeks ago the doomsday crowd was predicting that TA would be swamped by both Dark Shadows and Battleship, and indeed should consider itself lucky to have one week at number one in the US. Going head-to-head with those box office titans and coming out on top is quite an accomplishment.

 

[TheVileOne]

Meh, MIB 3 doesn't look all that great. MIB 2 was an under performer as well. So much so that Sony actually paired up MIB 2 in double features with Spider-Man which ticked Marvel off and brought about a lawsuit back then.

I don't see MIB 3 performing anywhere near as well as this movie anyway. And I doubt people expected it to be #1 for three straight weeks over The Dictator and Battleship anyway.

There's no way it doesn't pass $550 million at this point. It will easily cross $500 million over the Memorial Day weekend.

 

[Mysteryman]

Well,
Looks like Universal wasted Money on that Post Credit scene for Battleship .
Pity.

 

[Xeno]

Sorry, I meant to say PG-13. Regardless, 12 year old girls weren't allowed to watch the film. Nevertheless, I am sure they would let other people to watch it but that is the theaters problem.

You do know that children younger than 13 can go see PG-13 films, don't you? If they couldn't, there wouldn't be all those preschoolers and tweens going to see The Avengers, Battleship, the Batman films, Transformers and all of the other PG-13 blockbusters that have been released in recent years. The PG-13 rating is not an absolute rule that only people over the age of 13 can be admitted to a film, but rather a guideline for parents as to the more adult nature of some of the material.

PG-13 – Parents Strongly Cautioned
Some material may be inappropriate for children under 13.

Theater operators don't screen out younger children from movies rated PG-13, or even from R-Rated fare, though in the latter case those under the age of 17 are supposed to be accompanied by an adult. Every screening of The Avengers that I've attended has been teeming with kids under 13. When I saw Alien Resurrection in theater the place was full of screaming grade school kids for some reason, and that movie was a hard R for graphic violence. If young children were allowed to see that movie, then of course they were allowed in for the very tame Titanic.

 

[lespaul59]

So here is what the Avengers needs to make to pass 1-5 to take the top spot in the Domestic BO.

1. Avatar: $303,429,625
2. Titanic: 201,446,188
3. The Dark Knight: 76,267,358
4. The Phantom Menace: 17,465,918
5. Star Wars: 3,920,007

I think the ones to worry about are Avatar and Titanic. I give TA a 10% chance at best to beat Avatar and a 30% chance to beat Titanic. I'm no BO expert but I think TA has a pretty good shot of passing TPM on Thursday.

 

[Liam_H]

I'd give it 70% chance of passing Titanic's inital run. And 1% chance of passing Avatar. And it will pass TPM by Tuesday at the latest.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yeah avatar is gonna be pretty much impossible. The avengers has been declining at a rate of about 50% every weekend it's unlikely there is anything that will lead to an uptick.

ps. I know this is controversial but i still consider titanic the last major "true" box office champ.

I'm not a huge fan of it but i was around when it made 600 million domestic when movies tickets were like 7$. As opposed to the 3d ticket prices of avatar and the avengers.

I wish they would start releasing tickets sold so we can get some good comparisons. It'd be interesting to see where TDK ranks there as well.

 

[Bruce Malone]

double

 

[Liam_H]

I wish they would start releasing tickets sold so we can get some good comparisons. It'd be interesting to see where TDK ranks there as well.

I believe it sold around ~75 million tickets. Well according to a certain metric.

 

[Avenger]

Yeah, no way is TA going to surpass Avatar. I still can't believe how much money that movie made, even with the novelty experience. Wow!

 

[Bruce Malone]

I believe it sold around ~75 million tickets. Well according to a certain metric.

If there using metrics and not actual ticket counts that's gonna be confusing. I saw avengers twice once in imax 3d for like 18$ and the other reg 2d for like 13$. So the prices of tickets vary quite a bit.

 

[Xeno]

Meh, MIB 3 doesn't look all that great. MIB 2 was an under performer as well. So much so that Sony actually paired up MIB 2 in double features with Spider-Man which ticked Marvel off and brought about a lawsuit back then.

I don't see MIB 3 performing anywhere near as well as this movie anyway. And I doubt people expected it to be #1 for three straight weeks over The Dictator and Battleship anyway.

There's no way it doesn't pass $550 million at this point. It will easily cross $500 million over the Memorial Day weekend.

Even though MIBIII doesn't look like a great film, it's still going to pull decent numbers next weekend. I might even go see it, depending on whether or not the ads make it look interesting enough. The Avengers is on a different level altogether. It will probably rack up another $50 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, and keep plugging away with several million a day thereafter. The $600 million mark may be out of reach but in light of TA's performance to date, I won't be one to say so just yet.

Well,
Looks like Universal wasted Money on that Post Credit scene for Battleship .
Pity.

I read that they had a post-credits scene on another site. What was it? Green Lantern also had a mid-credits teaser for a sequel that will never be, which really does sadden me. The Fall and Rise of Sinestro should have been the story they tackled in the first (and probably only) Green Lantern movie.

 

[Mysteryman]

Even though MIBIII doesn't look like a great film, it's still going to pull decent numbers next weekend. I might even go see it, depending on whether or not the ads make it look interesting enough. The Avengers is on a different level altogether. It will probably rack up another $50 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, and keep plugging away with several million a day thereafter. The $600 million mark may be out of reach but in light of TA's performance to date, I won't be one to say so just yet.





I read that they had a post-credits scene on another site. What was it? Green Lantern also had a mid-credits teaser for a sequel that will never be, which really does sadden me. The Fall and Rise of Sinestro should have been the story they tackled in the first (and probably only) Green Lantern movie.

It was basically a set up for a sequel .

 

[Raiden]

It was basically a set up for a sequel .

I'm pretty sure a sequel is out of the question right now.

 

[spider-neil]

Well,
Looks like Universal wasted Money on that Post Credit scene for Battleship .
Pity.

there was a post credit scene for battleship?! blast!

 

[marcvader]

We know it was a sequel set up but what was the scene?

 

[Tony Stark]

BoxOffice has it tracking at $85 million and they're pretty accurate most of the time. So that's not necessarily a bomb at least not yet.

Two words.....Terminator Salvation.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah avatar is gonna be pretty much impossible. The avengers has been declining at a rate of about 50% every weekend it's unlikely there is anything that will lead to an uptick.

ps. I know this is controversial but i still consider titanic the last major "true" box office champ.

I'm not a huge fan of it but i was around when it made 600 million domestic when movies tickets were like 7$. As opposed to the 3d ticket prices of avatar and the avengers.

I wish they would start releasing tickets sold so we can get some good comparisons. It'd be interesting to see where TDK ranks there as well.

It should also be pointed out that both of those movies were released in late December, so they had no competition for the first three months of the calendar year. I believe Titanic was no. 1 from Dec all the way to April.

 

[Raiden]

It should also be pointed out that both of those movies were released in late December, so they had no competition for the first three months of the calendar year. I believe Titanic was no. 1 from Dec all the way to April.

Yeah, both Avatar and Titanic were different kind of beast at the box office, and only another Cameron movie have the possibility to duplicate their success. However, I think TA has a good chance to come in #3 behind these two huge films, as long their drop percentage shrinks to be less than 50% in the coming weeks, and it can stay in the theatres for much longer than other typical blockbusters.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I wonder if they can increase the budget for the next film...

 

[KangConquers]

So here is what the Avengers needs to make to pass 1-5 to take the top spot in the Domestic BO.

1. Avatar: $303,429,625
2. Titanic: 201,446,188
3. The Dark Knight: 76,267,358
4. The Phantom Menace: 17,465,918
5. Star Wars: 3,920,007

I think the ones to worry about are Avatar and Titanic. I give TA a 10% chance at best to beat Avatar and a 30% chance to beat Titanic. I'm no BO expert but I think TA has a pretty good shot of passing TPM on Thursday.

There's just not $200 M left in this movie. I'd say there's $120 M domestic left in the tank at best.


Avatar- 1%
Titanic- 5%
The Dark Knight- 60%
Phantom Menace- 100%
Star Wars- 100%

 

[Raiden]

There's just not $200 M left in this movie. I'd say there's $120 M domestic left in the tank at best.


Avatar- 1%
Titanic- 5%
The Dark Knight- 60%
Phantom Menace- 100%
Star Wars- 100%

I think TA will pass everyone on the top five list except for Avatar and Titanic. It will most definitely surpass TDK, and so far it has reached its box office milestones faster than TDK had been as well. Even with MIB3 coming out this week, TA will still make quite a bit of money.